MAY 2018 - Rain Chances/Memorial Day Weekend WX

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Tue May 15, 2018 9:48 pm

Well our little corner of South Montgomery missed out a few times, so that seems to be the difference.

Speaking of summer, we may have rolling blackouts for the first time since 2011:

http://abc13.com/society/texas-energy-m ... -/3478227/
Last Measurable Rainfall: May 21st
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby Cromagnum » Thu May 17, 2018 12:28 am

My weather all is showing POPs of 60-70% Sun through Wed. Realistic shot?
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby Katdaddy » Thu May 17, 2018 7:03 am

Not much to say about the SE TX weather. Another mostly sunny and hot day on the way.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Thu May 17, 2018 9:54 am

Here is an update from Jeff. It echoes a lot of what I have been saying - in this hot, dry weather, drought conditions can develop very quickly. I have not had rain since April 22.

Also something to note, the drought monitor tends to lag behind 'real world' conditions a bit too. As a drought spreads, it's usually a little worse than depicted on the drought monitors...

Near record to record heat likely again today across the region.

After a cool April, May has quickly brought summer conditions with both heat and increasing dryness. IAH has hit 94 the past two days and today looks like 94/95 is a good bet. Upper level ridge remains anchored over the northern Gulf of Mexico which is helping to produce a fairly dry air mass by SE TX standards…PWS running 1.0-1.2 inches. Subsidence aloft is keeping even cloud formation to a minimum with the closest rainfall/storms located well W/NW of SE TX along the W TX dry line. WSW/SW winds have been allowing mid 90’s each afternoon and this will be the case again today. Onshore flow returns on Friday into the weekend with an earlier push of the inland seabreeze which should help knock afternoon highs down a degree or two Friday and Saturday. May have just enough moisture back into the region and slight weakening of the upper level ridge by Sunday into early next week for an isolated shower or storm along the seabreeze front. Overall will keep the rain chance less than 20% for the next 5 days and honestly looking at the long range model output…rain chances look slim through the end of the month…GFS is producing between .10 and .25 of an inch of rainfall through the next 16 days.

Drought Conditions:

Hot and “dry” air mass is quickly resulting in degradation of fine fuels and grasses as top soil layers have begun to dry. Drought conditions have developed over Wharton, Matagorda, and Jackson Counties and are slowly expanding NE deeper into the area. Jackson County is currently classified in moderate drought conditions. Soil moisture will continue to decline over the next several days with dry and hot afternoons and evaporation rates will be maximized across the region. May is typically one of the wettest months across SE TX, but thus far this May Hobby has only recorded a Trace of rainfall, Galveston .24 of an inch and Victoria .02 of an inch.

Jeff Lindner
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Thu May 17, 2018 10:35 am

Any wagers I won't see a drop of rain for the entire month of May? That will be a first.

Correction - I got some rain on May 5th. Forgot about that...wasn't very memorable.
Last edited by jasons on Thu May 17, 2018 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Thu May 17, 2018 4:17 pm

It's HOT at my place today!
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Thu May 17, 2018 11:01 pm

So, you're saying there's a chance...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another hot/dry day across SE TX today with some records highs
prepared to fall (or very near) this afternoon (Galveston/IAH).
Patchy fog possible again tonight across areas W/SW of Houston
likely lingering through mid Fri morning. The return of south-
east winds tomorrow could bring an end to the streak of record
setting days as the onshore flow helps to modify things.

As the upper ridge breaks down over the weekend (likely as the
response to a series of shortwaves rotating around the base of
elongated trof axis along the west coast), we should be seeing
slightly better rain chances over the weekend as the seabreeze
tries to get things going. However, the better chances to hold
until the start of next week (when weak disturbances come into
play with the seabreeze). Additionally models are hinting that
increased PWs (1.6-1.8") are possible during that time period.
Drying pattern could be returning by the end of next week. 41
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Fri May 18, 2018 6:01 am

DoctorMu wrote:So, you're saying there's a chance...


LOL, yeah but did he finally get the girl at the end or not??
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby unome » Sat May 19, 2018 7:47 am

be still my heart, rain chances increase to 30% Sun & Mon - even in the green on WPC maps !

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/nati ... rt/map.php

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
A few patchy spots of low ceilings and/or fog will persist for the next couple of hours before improving to VFR for today. Southerly winds to start will become gusty later this morning, with a seabreeze likely this afternoon and evening. Low ceilings will be possible again tonight, but confidence remains low for now. Could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Sunday. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging will provide yet another day of unseasonably warm temperatures and rain free skies. At the surface, the pressure gradient between low pressure over West Texas and high pressure over the Gulf has tightened so would expect breezy south winds today. Mixing from the southerly winds and a bit more cloud cover should shave a few degrees from yesterdays high temperatures.

The upper ridge gets dampened southward on Sunday as a deep upper trough edges into the Pacific coast. A southwest upper flow over the area will allow a weak short wave to traverse the region and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it appears the higher rain chances will focus over the western half of the CWA closer to the short wave. The Hi-Res guidance is rather bullish with rain chances and matches up well with the Canadian and the ECMWF. The GFS is stronger with the ridging and shows less moisture. Have leaned toward the consensus and have raised PoPs to chance over the NW half of the region. NAM forecast soundings show some instability in the late afternoon with steepening lapse rates and an inverted V signature, so if storms do develop, will need to watch out for some gusty winds. Temperatures will be strongly dependent on when clouds/precip develop. 850 temps cool a bit so highs on Sunday should be mainly in the upper 80's to lower 90's.

Another short wave trough rotating around a deep long wave trough over So CA will approach the area on Monday. This feature coupled with daytime heating will trigger additional showers and storms on Monday. The upper ridge over Northern Mexico starts to build back into Texas on Tuesday as the upper trough over CA shears out. The Canadian and the ECMWF keeps rain chances going Tues/Wed as they keep the upper ridge further south and maintain lower heights over East Texas. Will introduce 20 PoPs for mid week and await a consensus on the the position of the ridge.

By next Friday, the GFS carves out a fairly deep upper trough over the mid Mississippi valley and brings a cold front into North Texas. 500 heights fall and the front will serve as a focus for rainfall. The ECMWF shows a weakness over the northern Gulf but shifts the upper feature east allowing upper level ridging to expand over Texas. Have leaned toward the drier and warmer ECMWF for next weekend. 43

CLIMATE...
Houston has recorded seven consecutive days with temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Today will likely be the eighth day. The longest streak of consecutive 90 degree days during the month of May is 16 days back in 1996. If the temperature reaches 90 on Sunday, it looks like the 90 degree threshold will be reached for the rest of next week and the streak could reach 15 days by next Saturday. 43

MARINE...
Moderate S to SE winds are expected today and tonight with caution flags currently flying for all waters. Caution to advisory conditions are expected on and off through the weekend before weakening some heading into the start of the work week. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 89 70 91 / 0 10 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 92 75 90 73 91 / 10 10 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 85 78 85 / 10 10 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM... Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay... Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...11
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Sat May 19, 2018 12:09 pm

Today's forecast for this upcoming week looks more like summer in eastern NC, where I grew up. High near 90°F and 20-30% chance every day. I'll take it. This morning was pleasant and breezy (S 18 G 25) - mid 70s, not bad for a 5K charity run/walk.
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