MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Mon May 14, 2018 2:36 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:The doldrums of May through mid September in SE TX.

110 days until Meteorological Fall.



Yeah...it's like can we just make it to the following markers:

• SEC Media Days - July 16

• First Day of football practice - Aug 1

• First Game - Aug 30
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Mon May 14, 2018 2:50 pm

jasons wrote:I posted this in the Hurricane Forum, but since nothing else is going on, thought I'd post it here too, as the coming El Nino will affect our weather in other ways as well:

https://www.weatherbell.com/may-hurricane-season-update


Year of the Shear?

Tropical waves only please...and ones that don't overstay their welcome!
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon May 14, 2018 8:47 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:The doldrums of May through mid September in SE TX.

110 days until Meteorological Fall.



Yeah...it's like can we just make it to the following markers:

• SEC Media Days - July 16

• First Day of football practice - Aug 1

• First Game - Aug 30



Amen... going to have a “one for the ages” tailgate for the Clemson game. I have 40-50 Clemson friends coming in and I’m hiring the bartenders from the Stella to serve and create cocktails. Lord help me if we win. I may have to take off the first half of the next work week.
Team #NeverSummer
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Mon May 14, 2018 10:26 pm

More of the same, but the discussion was too good to skip:

Let`s review some Texas weather forecasting rules of thumb. First
all floods end in drought and all droughts end in floods. Second
when in drought, forecast more drought until it starts to rain -
when in flood, forecast more flood until it stops raining.
Drought monitor has some abnormal dryness and moderate drought to the southwest of Houston. But Houston IAH is 2.55 inches below normal rainfall since March 1 and 0.34 inches below for the year.
Houston HOU is down 3.65 inches below normal since March 1 and
3.49 inches below normal for the year. Given the current analysis
and forecast data going forward, there is little chance if any at
precipitation over the next 7 days.
Last Measurable Rainfall: August 16
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby Katdaddy » Tue May 15, 2018 5:36 am

Some patchy fog across SE TX this morning will burn off this morning as mostly sunny hot weather continue across SE TX through the weekend. Record high temps in the mid 90s are likely Wednesday and Thursday.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby redneckweather » Tue May 15, 2018 8:53 am

I guess I have been lucky this Spring season. I don't monitor my rain gauge much but my garden has been flooded 3 times this Spring. This past Sunday was the first time I gave it a light watering. The ground is still holding good moisture and no signs of anything drying out. I'm surprised signs of drought are showing up around me because I have seen nothing of the sort. The San Jacinto River up this way has come up to the banks twice this Spring and has come up 5 feet on 3 different occasions. Of course with a dry forecast in the extended and temps in the 90's, it won't take long for things to dry up around here pretty quick.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby tireman4 » Tue May 15, 2018 1:01 pm

I know this is the SE Texas Area weather board, but this popped up..very rarely does this happen...
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby unome » Tue May 15, 2018 2:36 pm

MCD for west Texas

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/md0428.html

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected... Portions of western and southwestern Texas

Concerning... Severe potential... Watch possible

Valid 151851Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance... 40 percent

SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop in the next few hours. Although storm coverage should be low, a Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A bore/outflow boundary has been moving south across the Texas South Plains this morning/early afternoon and has contributed to the development of a few thunderstorms in the last hour. A dryline arcs from Midland to south of Fort Stockton, where additional thunderstorms are developing over the high terrain. Although low-level wind fields are quite weak over the area, westerly mid-to-upper level winds of 30-50 kt is contributing to somewhat long, straight hodographs over the area, and resides in a layer with rather deep positive buoyancy, as noted in RAP analysis/forecast soundings. Given the deep-layer shear profile, moderate instability, and a substantially-mixed boundary layer amidst dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, widely scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected through the afternoon. Over the northern part of the area, although the bore/outflow has diffused the convergence along the dryline, the hodographs favor splitting supercells suggesting left movers could affect the northern part of the area. However, the coverage of storms is expected to remain low, making the need for a Watch uncertain at this time.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN... WFO... EWX... SJT... LUB... MAF...
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Tue May 15, 2018 4:43 pm

redneckweather wrote:I guess I have been lucky this Spring season. I don't monitor my rain gauge much but my garden has been flooded 3 times this Spring. This past Sunday was the first time I gave it a light watering. The ground is still holding good moisture and no signs of anything drying out. I'm surprised signs of drought are showing up around me because I have seen nothing of the sort. The San Jacinto River up this way has come up to the banks twice this Spring and has come up 5 feet on 3 different occasions. Of course with a dry forecast in the extended and temps in the 90's, it won't take long for things to dry up around here pretty quick.


We had our fair share of some good rains this spring as well, but got shafted the last couple of ‘events’. Things are quickly drying out down here and the grass, weeds, and saplings are starting to wilt and even brown along the roadsides. I thought to myself driving home today ‘it’s starting to look like August, not May’. It doesn’t take long in this heat to dry out, and the effects will start to quickly compound. Yes the reservoirs are in good shape (still), but again it won’t take long to affect those too.

We really need a good soaking, and soon, to stave off the summer feedback of hot & dry just making it more hot and dry. It’s a delicate balance and every single day counts at this point...
Last Measurable Rainfall: August 16
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Spent time in Northern Liberty County at our 10K Acre Hunting Lease Sunday. While there is some improvement from the swamp we've had the last 3 years, it's still plenty wet and the mosquitos where brutal in some areas.
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