MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby DoctorMu » Thu May 10, 2018 8:59 pm

Per the HGX weather bot, the Euro is not seeing the same ridging that GFS sees as we move into next week.

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/994730799827218433

No tangible relief from dry weather, just a faint glimmer of hope.

Critical, because the next month is when we have opportunities to stock up with rain for summer. Ridge building this early is not a good omen.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby DoctorMu » Thu May 10, 2018 9:02 pm

Home office is leaning toward the GFS solution. Drat!


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Onshore winds will continue to bring low level moisture into SE TX
tonight. The additional moisture coupled with lighter winds
overnight will again lead to some patchy fog over mainly the W-SW
parts of the region. PW values will increase overnight and
eventually climb to around 1.25 inches by mid-day Friday. A very
weak disturbance will move up the coast tonight and this feature
coupled with the increase in moisture, broadly divergent upper
level winds and some speed convergence near the coast will yield
some isolated showers. Coverage will be isolated at best and most
areas will likely remain dry but can`t rule out some weak showers.
The deeper moisture will move east Friday night and Saturday and
rain chances will also shift east. Will carry some isolated rain
showers on Saturday over the extreme east but then conditions
begin to dry out areawide.

Sunday looks rain free at this time with high temperatures near
90. The GFS and ECMWF differ rather significantly for the first
half of next week as the GFS develops weak ridging over Texas
between an upper trough over the western US and a weak upper low
over FL that tries to retrograde west. The ECMWF tries, but fails
to develop much of a ridge and keeps the flow semi-zonal with weak
short waves moving across the southern plains that eventually
phase with the retrograding upper low. This creates a weakness
over the state by Wednesday with a return of showers and storms
for the second half of next week. Have leaned toward the
more consistent GFS which leaves the extended forecast dry and
increasingly warmer. 43
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 11, 2018 7:38 am

Reviewing the overnight Ensembles, I do not see any significant change in our sensible weather pattern through at least the 25th which takes us into Memorial Day Weekend. There is a slight chance of a stray seabreeze shower or two over the next several days and a mid/upper low meanders just West of the Florida Peninsula and a bit of deeper tropical moisture surges from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf.

That said there are some indications that High Latitude Blocking may occur toward the end of the month and reshuffle the Upper Air pattern a bit possibly bring a better shot at some rain late May/early June. As we have seen over many years, it getting close to time when the Central America Monsoonal Trough begins to drift N and perhaps some of the solutions the GFS/GEFS are "sniffing' is some sort of Monsoonal Gyre developing. More on that possibility in our Hurricane Central Section in the days ahead.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby jasons » Fri May 11, 2018 6:36 pm

I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.

Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby DoctorMu » Fri May 11, 2018 6:39 pm

High and dry.

The good news with the ridging is that humidity levels will not be super high with admixing, keeping the heat index reasonable...especially in the evenings.

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/995080773513437184

Canadian says *maybe* a few showers in 7-10 days.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby DoctorMu » Fri May 11, 2018 6:41 pm

jasons wrote:I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.

Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.


Yeah, we built up a stockpile of water in the reservoirs and ground the last couple of years with deluge-like rains this time of year. Don't see a 2011 in our future, but buckle up!

This is why I NEVER complain about weather in the winter in Texas. ;)
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby Ptarmigan » Sat May 12, 2018 4:49 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
jasons wrote:I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.

Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.


Yeah, we built up a stockpile of water in the reservoirs and ground the last couple of years with deluge-like rains this time of year. Don't see a 2011 in our future, but buckle up!

This is why I NEVER complain about weather in the winter in Texas. ;)


2011 started dry and it was also warmer. 2009 and 2010 were below average in rainfall total. A drought occurred from 2008 to 2014. 2015 to 2017 were wetter than normal.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Returns/Hurricane Preparedness Week

Postby jasons » Sun May 13, 2018 12:31 pm

All you need to read from the AFD. See y’all in a week to re-assess:

DISCUSSION...
Very quiet weather across SETX this next week. Subsidence should be the meteorological word of the day.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon May 14, 2018 8:47 am

The doldrums of May through mid September in SE TX.

110 days until Meteorological Fall.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Dry WX Continues

Postby jasons » Mon May 14, 2018 11:47 am

I posted this in the Hurricane Forum, but since nothing else is going on, thought I'd post it here too, as the coming El Nino will affect our weather in other ways as well:

https://www.weatherbell.com/may-hurricane-season-update
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