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MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby Katdaddy » Tue May 29, 2018 4:39 am

Hot and mostly sunny weather can be expected through the week across SE TX. Alberto continues to weaken inland over SE US this morning.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 29, 2018 8:30 am

Thank you for the important message about the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, Katdaddy. It's only May and temps are already really heating up. Take care everyone!
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 29, 2018 8:55 am

Not often we see an Upper Mexico Ridge anchored overhead and literally no clouds. This is beginning to remind me of May/June 1980... ;)
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby Katdaddy » Wed May 30, 2018 4:33 am

And the heat continues onward.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby tireman4 » Wed May 30, 2018 7:09 am

Please please be careful out there. This upper ridge is not going anywhere fast....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR for majority of the day today. South winds could get a little
gusty (generally carrying 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots)
mid morning through the afternoon. The south winds will persist
tonight (around 5 to 10 knots). For now, will keep TAFs VFR with
SCT015 developing overnight, but parts of the area (especially
west of our area) could become MVFR and/or IFR. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 333 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...

Hot weather ahead as we transition from May into June, and
meteorological summer will finally catch up with the summer we`ve
been experiencing for a bit now. Look for the heat index to max
out in triple digits for most locations away from the coast into
early next week at least. Additionally, both record warm mins and
record highs are possible - though the record warm mins seem more
likely than record highs. A weak front that looks to drop into the
area on Sunday does bring us our only chance of showers and
storms, and that chance will be slight. For this early summer
heat, a focus on heat safety will continue to be key.


.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Speckles of low clouds and localized fog are cropping up across
Southeast Texas, but for the large majority, skies are clear late
tonight. This general pattern looks to continue through morning,
and get us on a warm start for yet another day with highs in the
90s and afternoon heat indices above 100 degrees. More of the same
really, for Thursday. Some indications that the building ridge may
not dominate quite quickly enough, and we may see a bit more
overnight stratus tonight into Thursday morning. The impact will
be small, but may be just enough to keep us in the lower to
middle 90s rather than the middle to upper 90s, with things
looking pretty familiar otherwise.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday night Through Saturday Night]...

The upper ridge continues to strengthen and drift up from Mexico
into the Big Bend for the late week and weekend. This should keep
skies clear and let inland temperatures warm back up into the
middle and upper 90s. There may be a a few localized spots to
reach 100 degrees even. While I don`t explicitly forecast any
record highs here, they`re mighty close - so if I`m cool at all on
these temps, we could see tied or broken records. Perhaps a little
more likely may be record warm minimum temps, particularly at
Galveston. Helping things out on Saturday may be winds a bit more
southwesterly than southerly, which may let temps get even a
little bit higher still.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...

A weak boundary looks to drop down into the area Sunday, which
will gradually turn winds northwesterly up north, and more
westerly at the coast. The GFS is more aggressive with this
feature than the Euro, which washes it out in our north, with much
less impact towards the coast. If the timing is right to get
enough moisture, convergence on the front, and daytime
instability, we might be able squeeze some showers or storms out
of this. However, the column is quite warm, and we may simply stay
capped. As a result, rain chances even here are pretty low. But,
if it`s gonna happen, this is our best shot.

Regardless of how strong the boundary ends up being, the pocket
of "cold" air on the backside of the front will not really make it
down to us, but it may be a little less humid. As a result, don`t
look for temperatures to really drop much at all - just back us
away from the record temperature neighborhood. A little less
humidity may help a touch comfort-wise, but we`ll also be looking
at lighter winds early next week, so...maybe not. It`s Houston,
it`s summertime, and we`re clearly settling into the routine.


.MARINE...

Moderate south to southeast winds (around 10 to 15 knots)
and slightly higher seas (around 2 to 4 feet) can be ex-
pected through Saturday in response to lower pressures in/
around the Texas Panhandle area and higher pressures off
to our east. Caution flags will probably be needed tonight
through early Thursday morning as winds increase into a 15
to 20 knot range under a slightly tighter pressure gradient.
As a weak frontal boundary sags to the south toward the
area, a more southwesterly flow is expected to develop
Saturday night or Sunday. South to southwest winds are
anticipated to return to the area for the first half of
next week. 42

.CLIMATE...

Bush Intercontinental/City of Houston reached 90 degrees
yesterday, the 18th 90 degree day of the month. This ties the
record for most 90 degree days in May for Houston. Today`s high is
certain to reach 90 degrees, giving 2018 the record on its own,
and tomorrow is virtually certain to pad that record. Really, the
only thing stopping this string of 90 degree May days is the end
of May.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 76 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 77 93 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 87 81 88 / 10 10 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby DoctorMu » Wed May 30, 2018 9:01 am

Horrendous dew point of 75°F in CLL and on tap for a very hot day, but no rain. This is why I NEVER complain about winter weather in South Central and SE Texas! ;)

Not a great deal of relief in the long-terms through mid-June.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed May 30, 2018 12:08 pm

DoctorMu wrote:Horrendous dew point of 75°F in CLL and on tap for a very hot day, but no rain. This is why I NEVER complain about winter weather in South Central and SE Texas! ;)

Not a great deal of relief in the long-terms through mid-June.


Yep, 30 degrees feels a 1000x more refreshing and comfortable than 100 and humid. The only way for me to be somewhat comfortable in this is to be in a swimsuit and that’s it.... and water better be nearby.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby tireman4 » Thu May 31, 2018 9:00 am

Please be careful out there. I miss Winter...sigh
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby tireman4 » Thu May 31, 2018 9:02 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
956 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Few speckles on radar imagery this morning associated with the
cloud streets that have filled in across the region. Decided to
raise PoPs today to account for the possibility of a light shower
or two which may develop south of I-10. Cloud cover should
continue to increase through the morning hours until day time
heating helps to mix and lift the broken deck, leaving behind
scattered skies by this afternoon. The best cloud cover should be
contained to the coast where dew points are in the mid to upper
70s. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, rising into
the upper 80s over the coastal counties to mid 90s further inland.
Breezy conditions today will provide a little relief to the heat,
with winds out of the south between around 10 mph.

Hathaway
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Re: MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby tireman4 » Thu May 31, 2018 9:02 am

Question for our long range Met, Srain. Do you see any hopes of this ridge abating soon?
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