MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

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MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

Postby ticka1 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:13 pm

Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Will cooler temps hang around?

Postby jojotheidiotclown » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:49 am

God, I hope not. I thrive in the warmth. Love summer. If I wanted mild or cold temps I would live up north as a Yankee.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Will cooler temps hang around?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:44 pm

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook that takes is into early/mid May suggests a deep Central/East Coast trough with equal chances of normal precipitation.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Will cooler temps hang around?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:03 am

ticka1 wrote:Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.


Ideal for my sprinkler and A/C unit. It's 67°F and we had 0.8 in of rain tonight. I'd take this all year round.

Our utility bills for July and August are ridiculous. 100°F, high humidity, but not much rain. We have no choice but to water during summers. The deep well aquifer water is high in sodium, so the water is alkaline...and that means extra iron for plants and grass. Gardenias and azaleas? Fuhgettaboutit. Landscaping in Texas is not for the weak of heart.
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:23 am

I wanted to briefly point out some signal developing in the medium/long range ensemble guidance suggesting a prolonged SE fetch off the Gulf begin this coming Sunday and extends throughout next work week. A vigorous deep trough appears to dig into the 4 Corners Region with the potential for a very robust cyclogensis (strong surface storm system) across the Panhandle/Southern Rockies late next work week. This typically spell severe weather threat in early May, so we will need to monitor trends into early next week.
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04242018 00Z 216 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png
04242018 06Z 2016 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37.png
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:03 am

May looks to begin with an active weather pattern that could persist into the first full week or two of the month. Mid to late next week appear the most active as severe weather season in the Plains becomes active with a trough to the West and a Ridge to the East setting the stage for prolonged NW Gulf moisture to stream inland into the Plains and very strong dynamics. The Storm Prediction Center has Outlined a rather high 30% Chance of all modes of severe weather at Day 6 across potions of the Central/Southern Plains. As a cold front advances across Texas a week from today, strong to severe storms will some potential for heavy rainfall enters the forecast. Some of the guidance stalls that front near the Coast keeping generally unsettled weather around well into the following work week, but that's much to far out into the future to consider anywhere close to accurate. We will monitor next weeks data very closely and fine tune the sensible weather expected as we get a bit closer. Stay Tuned!

04272018 Day 6 SPC day6prob.gif

04272018 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

04262018 CPC 814temp_new.gif

04262018 CPC 814prcp_new.gif
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby unome » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:30 pm

I hope we get more rain, I hate watering

chance of snow in the Rockies, per their tweet - I won't complain if we stay cooler a while, 90+ will get here soon enough !

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/990640775678562305
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:18 am

Active Weather Week as we turn the Calendar to May. The first Spring Season Severe Weather Event looks to unfold across portions of the Southern/Central Plains through Thursday as a vigorous Western Trough with embedded disturbances eject out of the 4 Corners into the Plains. Deep long fetch NW Gulf Moisture with become established today and increase as the week wears on. Locally, a SW flow aloft should keep rain/storm chances to a minimum other than some light beneath the capping inversion streamer showers unto Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the Hill Country and perhaps increases our rain chances slightly before the front clears the Coast on Saturday. The good news is that areas of Texas that are in severe drought conditions may be the benefactors of the heaviest rainfall this week, so that bodes well for those areas to replenish their lakes/reservoirs. Our SE Texas Lakes/Reservoirs are in fine shape with water levels across the Region near 90+% of capacity.

04302018 7 Day QPF p168i.gif


Keep an eye on our Hurricane Central section this week as we are monitoring the potential of some form of tropical/extra tropical mischief attempting to organize next week near the Bahamas. All of the Major Global Models are "sniffing" this potential that appears to pose absolutely no threat to the Gulf or Texas. Tis that time of year when attentions turns to the Tropics and serves as a reminder to replenish your Hurricane Supplies and update your Plan of Action... ;)
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby jasons » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:37 pm

From the PM AFD:

GFS and even the ECMWF keep higher QPF
amounts over central Texas so tried to keep higher PoPs to the NW
of the Houston area in the Friday/Saturday time frame.


The area will either be capped by the elevated
mixed layer for the next few days or instability will be limited
for the end of the week when the front becomes active. While there
is higher moisture, we are not really seeing any signals for
heavy rainfall but something to keep tabs on going forward.


:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
Last Measurable Rainfall: July 9th
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Re: MAY 2018 - Early May Rain/Severe WX Potential

Postby djmike » Tue May 01, 2018 5:21 am

FYI! Fun exciting event coming up here in Beaumont you guys may wanna make a small trip for!
***Only 8 days away!***
Come see the NOAA hurricane hunters at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland on May 8th. Tour two of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, speak with the pilots, and walk through vendor exhibits from various local agencies and organizations. The event is FREE and the public is invited to attend from 2 pm to 5 pm!
https://www.weather.gov/lch/hat
y
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