April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby jasons » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:28 pm

I'm watching the outflow boundary to the north, to see if any TCU can build as it moves south. It's already 71 at College Station and 69 in Huntsville behind it.
Last Measurable Rainfall: August 16
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Ounce » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:55 pm

Looks like the storms from the front are starting to extend, but not quite fill in, yet, from Llano the Kerrvile, then SW of Del Rio. The latter appears to be from that ejection of which Brooks spoke.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Ounce » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:55 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-069-073-081-085-127-032230-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0056.180403T2144Z-180403T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
444 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Grant Parish in north central Louisiana...
Southeastern De Soto Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Red River Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Northern Natchitoches Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Southwestern Ouachita Parish in north central Louisiana...
Southeastern Caddo Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Northeastern Sabine Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
West central Caldwell Parish in north central Louisiana...
Southern Jackson Parish in north central Louisiana...
Northwestern La Salle Parish in north central Louisiana...
Southern Bienville Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Southeastern Bossier Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until 530 PM CDT

* At 444 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles southwest of Ringgold to near Converse,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Natchitoches, Winnfield, Jonesboro, Coushatta, Campti, Allen,
Martin, Clarence, Hodge, Goldonna, Dodson, Georgetown, Hall Summit,
Saline, Lucky, Ashland, Calvin, Edgefield, Atlanta and Powhatan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 9234 3186 9233 3182 9234 3181 9236
3178 9236 3176 9234 3174 9236 3173 9236
3171 9237 3169 9235 3177 9350 3224 9354
3224 9325 3226 9281 3231 9231 3202 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 251DEG 53KT 3222 9345 3175 9380

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Ounce » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:57 pm

evere Thunderstorm Warning
TXC053-032230-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0031.180403T2143Z-180403T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
443 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Burnet County in south central Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT

* At 442 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tow, or 11
miles north of Buchanan Dam, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Burnet, Buchanan Lake Village, Lake Victor, Sunnylane, Shady Grove,
Watson and Tow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9798 3073 9810 3085 9842 3087 9843
3088 9846 3092 9845 3092 9842 3093 9841
3095 9842 3095 9845 3096 9845 3098 9844
3101 9846 3103 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 286DEG 20KT 3097 9844

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby jasons » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:37 pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018

Areas affected...portions of central into southeast TX and far
southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 032219Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new downstream severe thunderstorm watch also will be
needed across parts of central into southeast TX and far southwest
LA. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat into the
evening hours across this region.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorm watch 25 is set to expire at 23z.
Storms were ongoing across eastern portions of the watch in east TX
into northern LA. The surface cold front lags behind this convection
from near OSA to LXY to just north of BMQ and then back to the west
toward the Permian Basin. Initial, prefrontal convection has moved
across parts of east TX, modifying the boundary layer. This likely
will result less of a severe threat with convection now developing
further northwest along the front as little time remains for
adequate airmass recovery.

Further south and west the airmass remains unmodified with dewpoints
from the upper 60s to low 70s and moderate to strong instability
from parts of central TX into far southwest LA. Further south of WW
25, a new watch will likely be needed as convection continues to
develop along the southward surging cold front. At some point, the
cold front will overtake the outflow boundary laid out by prior
convection. This should align well with more favorable thermodynamic
and kinematic environment and robust thunderstorm development is
expected from the San Antonio to Houston to Lake Charles vicinity.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear should
maintain a large hail threat with some strong wind threat front any
surging line segments.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0211.html
Last Measurable Rainfall: August 16
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Location: Imperial Oaks

Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby jasons » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:41 pm

I would note the outflow boundary is further south than the graphic - it is almost to Conroe but appears to be slowing down in the last few radar and satellite frames.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:54 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
South central and southeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight
CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Broken bands of strong-severe storms will continue to
develop through the evening along an outflow boundary from southeast
Texas into southwest Louisiana, and along a cold front moving
southward across central Texas. The storm environment south of
these boundaries will remain supportive of a large hail and damaging
wind threat with the strongest embedded storms through at least late
evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south
southeast of Alexandria LA to 15 miles west of New Braunfels TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25...WW 26...WW 27...WW
28...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:21 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BASTROP BEXAR
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES
GUADALUPE HARDIN HARRIS
HAYS JASPER JEFFERSON
KARNES KENDALL LAVACA
LEE LIBERTY MONTGOMERY
NEWTON ORANGE POLK
SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON
WILSON
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby unome » Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:57 pm

Chris must be using the non-tasked missions to test updates to his site - NOAA's Kermit is sampling the atmosphere around today's severe weather area

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby jasons » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:00 pm

The wind just shifted in Conroe, and the temp quickly dropped from 82 to 74.
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