April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

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April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

Postby ticka1 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:18 am

Spring is here! What will our weather be like?
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby BlueJay » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:21 am

I am hoping for APRIL showers so as to bring MAY flowers!
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:22 pm

I think wxman57 perked some ears with his 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference forecast for S Padre Island next week. Fortunately for those of us heading to the RGV Region, the Euro backed off those unusually cool temperatures and the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook suggests near to slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. When inspecting the Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble and its analogs, a vigorous cold upper low is expected to spin over Hudson Bay in Canada suggesting possible quick hitting waves of cooler air entering the United States east of the Rockies.
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby ticka1 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:48 pm

more rain forecasted for next week?
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:43 am

ticka1 wrote:more rain forecasted for next week?


Perhaps a little rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the next cool front, but nothing too heavy at this time.
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby Belmer » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:16 am

Hope everyone has breathed a little easier this weekend with the heavy rain from Wednesday night/Thursday morning washing all that pollen away. I know my nose and I are happy...

Speaking of the weekend... this is our 13th of 2018 so far. 11 of the 13 weekends have had some type of rain/dreary weather associated with it. You couldn't have written a better forecast for Houston on Easter weekend with lower humidity, lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the low 80s with sunshine for everyone.

While a nice cool down looks promising in the medium to longer range, we need to focus more on the shorter range as Tuesday night into Wednesday morning offers us our next chance of some severe weather. This will be less of a flooding threat with rainfall totals looking generally less than an inch. The SPC has highlighted a large area for thunderstorms with the approach of our next cold front.


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Tuesday - Medium range models are in general agreement with the
timing of a southern-stream trough to move across central/eastern
parts of TX/OK by peak heating on Tuesday. A moist, moderately
unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will be conducive for
organized severe storms to develop initially in vicinity of a
dryline with supercells likely. A cold front advancing quickly
south Tuesday evening toward the northwest Gulf Coast will continue
to support a threat for severe storms associated with a potential
squall line.


..Peters.. 03/31/2018
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Webp.net-resizeimage.gif
SPC - Day 4 Outlook
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:55 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I think wxman57 perked some ears with his 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference forecast for S Padre Island next week. Fortunately for those of us heading to the RGV Region, the Euro backed off those unusually cool temperatures and the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook suggests near to slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. When inspecting the Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble and its analogs, a vigorous cold upper low is expected to spin over Hudson Bay in Canada suggesting possible quick hitting waves of cooler air entering the United States east of the Rockies.



The NAO is negative and chances are the East will be cooler. We could see NW flow aloft which reduces the risk that severe season will be too severe. We'll see.

The next cold front is Tuesday. The northern cos. will see T-storms and right now a light risk of severe weather. Yesterday was perfect. Wednesday and Thursday look perfect as well
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Re: April 2018- What will the weather be like?

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:57 pm

Belmer wrote:Hope everyone has breathed a little easier this weekend with the heavy rain from Wednesday night/Thursday morning washing all that pollen away. I know my nose and I are happy...

Speaking of the weekend... this is our 13th of 2018 so far. 11 of the 13 weekends have had some type of rain/dreary weather associated with it. You couldn't have written a better forecast for Houston on Easter weekend with lower humidity, lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the low 80s with sunshine for everyone.

While a nice cool down looks promising in the medium to longer range, we need to focus more on the shorter range as Tuesday night into Wednesday morning offers us our next chance of some severe weather. This will be less of a flooding threat with rainfall totals looking generally less than an inch. The SPC has highlighted a large area for thunderstorms with the approach of our next cold front.


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Tuesday - Medium range models are in general agreement with the
timing of a southern-stream trough to move across central/eastern
parts of TX/OK by peak heating on Tuesday. A moist, moderately
unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will be conducive for
organized severe storms to develop initially in vicinity of a
dryline with supercells likely. A cold front advancing quickly
south Tuesday evening toward the northwest Gulf Coast will continue
to support a threat for severe storms associated with a potential
squall line.


..Peters.. 03/31/2018



Agree - right now it looks like a squall line along the front is more likely than rotating cells we saw earlier this week.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:40 am

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a strong line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe crossing our Region along a Cold Front that should arrive late afternoon into the evening hours of Tuesday, The Storm Prediction Center has Outlined most of SE/E Texas as well as potions of Western Louisiana and Southern Arkansas in a Slight Risk area. Heavy rain does not appear to be an issue as the line look to move rather quickly.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby unome » Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:31 am

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