April 2018- Cool Front Wednesday/Weekend Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:29 pm

I’m seeing some signs the southerly low level flow is overtaking the trough, allowing the moist inflow to continue to the north. If this is the case, chances for storms with the front increase dramatically. Definitely something to watch.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:35 pm

The satellite shows storms firing along the dry line in N Central TX; as well as, blowing dust from high winds across W and NW TX. The cap has held across SE TX today and not allowing any lift for thunderstorms to development. There will be another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning associated with the cold front. Much cooler and sunny weather still on track for the weekend.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:15 pm

Beautiful and intense. Exploding dry line storms just before sunset across Central TX.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby Rip76 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:44 pm

Katdaddy wrote:Beautiful and intense. Exploding dry line storms just before sunset across Central TX.


Wow!
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:33 pm

Getting concerned with the line approaching this area, even though it is bowing out, it is weakening in the part headed this direction, at least for now.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:42 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...TORNADO WATCH 45 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON
...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER.

.UPDATE...
Monitoring the southern flank of a line of convection that is
passing across the I-35 corridor this hour...movement is east at
30 knots. Linear interpolation has this line entering our CWA
during the 11 PM hour. While the main threats within the strongest
storm cells will still be wind and hail...there is a slight enough
risk (especially over our northeastern counties) to go ahead with
a northern tier Tornado Watch through 6 AM. The bulk of the
activity/precipitation will come across the forecast area from
around midnight through 5 or 6 AM...exiting the coast sometime
around sunrise (or just before). Post-frontal Saturday will have
slowly clearing skies with the day warming into the average middle
to upper 60s. Afternoon northerly winds will strengthen to
between 15 to 25 knots...especially across the western half of the
CWA and coastal counties. Far interior dew points falling into
the lower to middle 30s will have %RHs falling into the 30s during
the afternoon in-line with the strongest winds. Thus...prepare
for slightly elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon.
31
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:56 pm

Katdaddy wrote:Beautiful and intense. Exploding dry line storms just before sunset across Central TX.


From bust to boom. :lol:


Incoming. Outflow boundary gusts peaking over 40 mph. Major bow echo.

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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:31 pm

I don’t want to jinx it, but it looks like I may get a nice rain from this after all :)
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:56 pm

Y’all the wind is still gusting pretty strong, solidly from the south and off the gulf. I think we’re gonna get a nice rain after all. Still a decent amount of lightning too.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:47 am

Wow pretty strong winds with the outflow/front - it is raining, and I am happy. :)
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