April 2018- Cool Front Wednesday/Weekend Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:25 pm

I’m betting the cap holds all day, the prefrontal trough takes away most of the convergence, so any “storms” that accompany the front will be pretty pathetic, and we’ll be lucky just to get some rains.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:31 pm

Tornado Watch....
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:33 pm

053
FXUS64 KHGX 131758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
A line of showers is slowly progressing into the area from the
northwest. Additionally, a line of clearing skies is progressing
northward from the coastline as gusty southerly winds continue.
Any current VFR ceilings are not expected to persist through the
afternoon as the low clouds and showers continue to move
southeastward. Scattered showers will continue until the late
afternoon, when some showers may become isolated thunderstorms.
There will be a brief break in precipitation this evening. A line
of thunderstorms will move into the area from the northwest late
tonight through early Saturday morning. Some of these storms may
be strong, with severe winds and hail possible. IFR ceilings are
possible during any heavy rainfall, with visibilities lowering to
5 miles.

Winds will decrease below 10 kts as a cold front approaches from
the northwest behind the line of convection. The cold front will
reach CLL around 06Z and progress offshore between 12Z and 15Z.
Strong northeasterly winds will carry through the day Saturday. 22
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:21 pm

HGX Radar Update 2 pm
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:50 pm

PDS Tornado Watch for portions of NE Texas
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:23 pm

Interesting Day 6 to 10 Outlook from the afternoon Updated Climate Predication Center as we head beyond mid April. I have a feeling looking at the upper air pattern suggested from the CPC even in the Week 3 to Week 4 Experimental Outlooks, severe weather chances may be the typical Spring theme as the month of May nears. Also, the latest guidance trends suggest areas around Huntsville/Conroe may see some upper 30's readings Sunday morning with low to mid 40's possible along and N of the I-10 Corridor.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:27 pm

Cap holding, so far...
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:53 pm

tireman4 wrote:Cap holding, so far...



Yep - complete bust for this afternoon.

Maybe we'll get lucky with the front arrival.
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:18 pm

Is it really a bust if nobody expected anything to happen?
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Re: April 2018- Showers/Storms Friday. Much Cooler Weekend!

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:52 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Is it really a bust if nobody expected anything to happen?


I did - but I'm up in College Station. 80% chance. However, there may be the frontal line moving through after midnight,
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