April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby tireman4 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:05 am

Alluding to Srain's AFD...
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby tireman4 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:05 am

Todays Weather Outlook
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:52 am

With cap issues and the front coming in overnight, I have this sinking feeling it's going to be mostly dry again. I'm not getting my hopes up this time.
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:57 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into early Saturday morning as a powerful late season cold front sweeps across the region.

Air mass will become increasingly unstable today as surface heating combines with returning moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid level capping should keep development to a minimum through the late morning hours, but this capping starts to erode by early afternoon and this may allow for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop over the warm sector. Given instability and shear parameters in place any storms that can get going in the warm sector this afternoon could go severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

A strong old front will slice into the region tonight and roar off the coast early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary with a few becoming severe. The greatest severe risk is in the area from College Station to Coldsprings and NE. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

This strong cold front is backed with some very cold air for this time of year with snow and below freezing temperatures expected across portions of OK and KS. Strong cold air advection will onset behind the front driving temperatures into the 50’s by Saturday morning with gusty N winds of 20-30mph. This will produce wind chills in the 40’s Saturday morning. Depending on how quickly clouds clear on Saturday will determine if we see much temperature recovery at all as strong cold air advection will continue into Saturday afternoon. Think most areas will hold in the 50’s all day on Saturday.

Clear skies and calm winds on Saturday night will allow for excellent cooling conditions with lows falling well into the 40’s over much of the area and possibly even some upper 30’s in a few locations. Looks like any chances for freezing low temperatures Sunday morning will remain north of our area across N TX.

Active pattern continues into next week with additional chances for thunderstorms roughly every 2-3 days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby jasons » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:12 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Seeing an increase in shower development this afternoon
(moving generally off to the northeast) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s. Cannot rule out some thunder-
storm development later this afternoon, but still looking
for much higher rain chances for our area later this
evening and on through the overnight hours as a cold
front and associated storms move into the area from the
north. Strong to severe storms are still possible with
large hail and damaging winds the primary severe weather
threat (see SPC`s latest Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook).
Behind the front, it will be turning much cooler (Satur-
day`s temperatures will hold steady or even fall during
the day, generally into the 50s inland and in the lower
60s at the coast), it will become breezy (wind advisories
might be needed) and rain chances will decrease as the
day progresses. Sunday morning will be on the cold side
with lows as low as around 40 well inland and around 50
at the coast (record lows are 34 set in 1938 for CLL, 35
set in 1971 for IAH, 34 set in 1939 for HOU and 38 set
in 1938 for GLS). A warming trend begins on Sunday with
rain chances increasing on Monday ahead of the next front
that moves through around Monday evening/night. Tuesday
and Wednesday are still looking coolish and dry, and the
second half of next week is looking warmer and much more
humid as the onshore flow strengthens in response to a
big deepening Central Plains storm system. We could see
our next rain chances beginning on Friday ahead of our
next front.
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:28 pm

Cool and dry on the way. Not much else.
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby jasons » Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:32 am

Yeah, just as I feared - storms went poof! On que just as they approached the house. Sprinkler time.
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Re: April 2018- Slight Risk/Severe Thunderstorms Friday

Postby redneckweather » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:01 am

We got popped good up here. Intense lightning and a torrential down pour. I'm glad it was a fast mover with that kind of rain.
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Re: April 2018- Cool/Dry Weekend

Postby mckinne63 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:40 am

Just some drizzle here in Stafford. Temps have dropped a bit since I got up at 7am this morning.
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Re: April 2018- Cool/Dry Weekend

Postby wxdude » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:50 am

The cap wins again. .01" here in Clute.
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