April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:36 am

From Blake....
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:59 am

Bolding to what Srain alluded to in his morning AFD


000
FXUS64 KHGX 031550
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 25, in effect for
Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Madison and Trinity counties until 6 PM.
Thunderstorms have developed to the west of our northern counties,
and activity is expected to spread northeastward for the rest of
the morning and into the afternoon hours. Some of our northern
counties (in and near the Watch area) have a risk of seeing strong/
severe thunderstorm development mainly this afternoon with activity
spreading to the east and eventually off to the southeast as the
afternoon/evening progresses. Large hail and strong damaging winds
are the primary severe weather threat. Additional watches might
be needed later today depending on how things evolve.
42
&&
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:36 am

Dr. Greg Forbes
49 mins ·
It is going to be an active spring day of severe thunderstorms from TX and LA to the Midwest. NWS/SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of northeast TX and bits of adjacent states until 6PM (2.5" hail, 70 mph gusts)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:39 am

We'll need to monitor the cluster of thunderstorms over Central Texas. HGX is closely watching to see if the cluster grows into a larger thunderstorm complex which could lead to potential issues in Metro Houston later this evening. GOES 16 Visible and Water Vapor Imagery detect a swiftly moving frontal boundary across the Permian Basin and N Texas to the S of Ft Worth/Dallas. Texas A&M will do a special balloon launch around 2:30 PM to further access the atmosphere. If the front moves in quicker and the disturbance (shortwave) currently over Mexico converge near SE Texas, the risk may increase. Currently the thinking is things will somewhat diminish after sunset. Keep an eye on the radars and for any additional trends later this afternoon.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:57 am

Front moving through Texas
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby djmike » Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:53 pm

LOcal met in bmt was saying less than an inch for most areas. Has anything changed to make it higher amts? Last storm models projected about 1” for my area and we ended up with 5” and major flooding around town. Thanks in advance...
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby redneckweather » Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:57 pm

The cluster of storms off to our North look to stay out of our area. In fact, I don't see much of anything with the actual frontal passage either later on. Nice chamber of commerce weather over the next couple of days.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby jasons » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:04 pm

redneckweather wrote:The cluster of storms off to our North look to stay out of our area. In fact, I don't see much of anything with the actual frontal passage either later on. Nice chamber of commerce weather over the next couple of days.


Have you looked at a water vapor loop of the shortwave in Mexico that is racing in this direction, about to collide with the front coming from the north? The cluster to the north is just a teaser...
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby Belmer » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:06 pm

redneckweather wrote:The cluster of storms off to our North look to stay out of our area. In fact, I don't see much of anything with the actual frontal passage either later on. Nice chamber of commerce weather over the next couple of days.


The storms off to our north should generally move eastward the next couple hours. As the front to our north begins to push south towards us this evening, those storms will leave boundaries in place and new convection will fire along the cold front up around Dallas and intensify as it moves into a very unstable, juiced environment here in SE TX. There isn't a model I've seen that shows the front coming in dry.
As Steve alluded to, the shortwave over Mexico and the frontal passage will be key in just the amount of activity and severity of these storms this evening. I'm confident that a line of storms will move through after 10pm with the front and leave generally an .75 to an inch of rain across the area... with some areas maybe having slightly higher totals.
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Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:22 pm

Belmer wrote:
redneckweather wrote:The cluster of storms off to our North look to stay out of our area. In fact, I don't see much of anything with the actual frontal passage either later on. Nice chamber of commerce weather over the next couple of days.


The storms off to our north should generally move eastward the next couple hours. As the front to our north begins to push south towards us this evening, those storms will leave boundaries in place and new convection will fire along the cold front up around Dallas and intensify as it moves into a very unstable, juiced environment here in SE TX. There isn't a model I've seen that shows the front coming in dry.
As Steve alluded to, the shortwave over Mexico and the frontal passage will be key in just the amount of activity and severity of these storms this evening. I'm confident that a line of storms will move through after 10pm with the front and leave generally an .75 to an inch of rain across the area... with some areas maybe having slightly higher totals.


Belmer is spot on with his assessment. This was supposed to be a quick mover, so flooding was never an issue. Remember, many of our staff will be at the Tropical Weather Conference ( Jeff, Wxman 57, Katdaddy, Srain to name a few)...so thank you to the mets that are manning the boards ( Belmer and Andrew). This will be an interesting event coming up.
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