MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:52 pm

sau27 wrote:
Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.


I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.



I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:33 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.


I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:59 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.


I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.


I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:24 am

Nasty humid air this am.

Definitely more worried about this severe season.

Possibly year of the shear? re: hurricanes?
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:14 am

Active weather day across our Region with a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms as a slow moving cold front advances toward SE Texas by this evening. The overnight guidance slowed the progression of that front by about 6-8 hours allowing for thunderstorm development further West that place most of our area in the Marginal Risk Outlined Area. A very strong jet streak/speed max is quickly moving across Mexico toward Texas and that feature looks to be the trigger for rapid thunderstorm development this afternoon. The greatest risk, although not that high is for damaging storm winds and small hail. The front should be near the Coast around midnight ushering in cooler and drier air Tuesday with an additional shot of some cooler and drier air on Wednesday.

Image
Attachments
03052018 13Z day1otlk_20180305_1300_prt.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: MARCH 2018 - Storm Chances Monday/Gorgeous WX To Follow

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:36 pm

03052018 mcd0108.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

Areas affected...CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051731Z - 052000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to develop across parts
of central and east Texas eastward into Louisiana. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary threat. Weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through the Arklatex extending southwestward into northeast and
central Texas. Convection is developing along the front. Surface
winds ahead of the front are veered to the southwest with dewpoints
in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range according to the RAP. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport
shows some veering of the winds with height with 0-6 km shear
estimated near 40 kt. Although deep-layer shear likely weakens with
southwestward extend along the front, the shear environment should
be enough to support a marginal severe threat this afternoon. Hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
will be possible as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen over
the next few hours.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: MARCH 2018 - Storm Chances Monday/Gorgeous WX To Follow

Postby jasons » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:04 pm

Look out in Fayette County - mean looking cell headed that way.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Storm Chances Monday/Gorgeous WX To Follow

Postby Electric Lizard » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:08 pm

The CF just got to Greenvine in SW WA County. Good wind shift with cool, dry air. The convection looks like it'll miss us to the east and west.
Edit: a good cell just blew up to our west headed this way. We can almost always use rain.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Storm Chances Monday/Gorgeous WX To Follow

Postby jasons » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:00 pm

Oh wow. The line is splitting. I had my lawn treated today and was counting on the rain. If I have to run my sprinklers....
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Storm Chances Monday/Gorgeous WX To Follow

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:32 pm

Congrats Galveston

NWS Hou
Update: As of 4 PM, the City of Galveston has set a preliminary record high temperature of 80 degrees. This breaks the old record of 77 degrees, which was set 138 years ago back in 1880!!
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