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MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:07 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Jackson County in south central Texas...
South central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 151 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Boling-Iago to near Point Comfort, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Matagorda, northwestern Lake Jackson, Angleton, Bay City, Wharton,
Palacios, West Columbia, Sweeny, South Texas Nuclear Plant,
Brazoria, Holiday Lakes, Bailey`s Prairie, Bonney, La Ward,
Sargent, Van Vleck, Boling-Iago, Wild Peach Village, Blessing and
Markham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:09 am

A line of strong storms is moving across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast currently.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
204 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

TXZ199-200-213-214-226-227-237-238-290800-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Chambers TX-Liberty TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
204 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHARTON...GALVESTON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...EASTERN FORT BEND...WESTERN CHAMBERS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Splendora to near Boling-Iago. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri City,
Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, southeastern Rosenberg, Alvin,
Dickinson, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, Humble and West
University Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:22 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 213 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Iowa Colony, or 7 miles southwest of Manvel,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Hillcrest and Liverpool around 230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Chocolate Bayou, Juliff and Rosharon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:22 am

Sent: 02:13 CDT on 03-29-2018
Effective: 02:13 CDT on 03-29-2018
Expires: 02:30 CDT on 03-29-2018
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 213 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Iowa Colony, or 7 miles southwest of Manvel,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Hillcrest and Liverpool around 230 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Chocolate Bayou, Juliff and Rosharon.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Brazoria
Fort Bend
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:23 am

that was quite an alarm clock

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

HGX issues Tornado Warning for Brazoria, Fort Bend [TX] till 2:30 AM CDT

Image
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:27 am

Image
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0082
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SW MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 290714Z - 291300Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AS A LARGE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.0 TO
2.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP INTO
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE QLCS EXTENDED (AT 07Z) FROM NEAR
VICKSBURG MS...TO ALEXANDRIA LA...TO JASPER TX...TO HOUSTON
TX...TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WAS
DEVELOPING INTO A CONTINUOUS LINE SEGMENT AND WAS BEGINNING TO
SHOW STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED ON A
VARIETY OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...AND IT MAY PUSH EAST OF
THE SABINE RIVER BY 11-12Z BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. FURTHER
NORTHEAST...INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION WAS TO THE NE IN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...BUT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE LINE WAS RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AS NEW UPDRAFTS WERE TENDING TO FORM NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW FROM THE GULF AND THE EXISTING
COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WAS LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND MAY BE MORE FAVORED FOR CONTINUED TRAINING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE OF STORMS WAS LESS
CONTINUOUS IN THIS AREA LEADING TO SHORTER BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN.
TO THE REAR OF THE LINE...NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE IN
EFFECT AS OF 07Z...AND FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY ONGOING DUE TO
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAIN RATES. GPS-PW OBSERVATIONS WERE AROUND 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS CLOSELY MATCHED CIRA BLENDED TPW PRODUCT.
VALUES EVEN REACHED AROUND 1.6 INCHES INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THESE WERE IN THE UPPER ECHELON OF MARCH MONTHLY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONAL HISTORY IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...OBJECTIVE RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

OBSERVED RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. A HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT RAIN GAGE NEAR
CYPRESS MEASURED 0.48 INCHES OF RAIN IN 5 MINUTES. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAS A SHORT PEAK...IT IS INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER END OF WHAT THE
ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS.
THOSE RATES
CORRESPONDED WITH KDP VALUES ON KHGX OF AROUND 3 DEG/KM...WHICH
MAY BE A REASONABLE PROXY ON RADARS FOR THESE SORT OF EXTREMELY
HIGH INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES THIS MORNING.

ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE A PARTICULARLY ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE FROM JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN TEXAS
(NEAR BEAUMONT) NORTHEAST TO BEAUREGARD...VERNON AND RAPIDES
PARISHES IN LOUISIANA (NEAR ALEXANDRIA). MRMS AND KLCH DUAL POL
ESTIMATES SHOW AROUND 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS SWATH
ALREADY TONIGHT...AND THE CREST HYDROLOGIC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
ELEVATED MAX UNIT STREAMFLOW VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF ONGOING
FLOODING. AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO THAT AREA...ANY
EXISTING FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:32 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
228 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 227 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Greater Hobby Area to near Matagorda, moving east
at 45 mph. Brief tornadoes may be possible along the leading edge
of this line.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Galveston Causeway, Galveston
Island West End, Texas City, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Lake
Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque,
Santa Fe, Freeport, Seabrook, Clute and Webster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:39 am

currently 2 gages ( 3-mile creek & mound creek) over banks & 8 near top on NW portion of flood mapping

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

https://twitter.com/hcfcd
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:45 am

Tornado went just south of me. Curious what I'm gonna see when the sun comes up.

Image

Windfield map is eerie. We were right on the edge of a strong rotation.

Image

Image
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:00 am

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/river/?wfo=HGX

HGX issues Tornado Warning for Galveston [TX] till 3:15 AM CDT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 256 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Santa Fe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
La Marque and Hitchcock around 300 AM CDT.
Bayou Vista and Tiki Island around 315 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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