MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:49 pm

Hoping for something south of town. We haven't seen anything yet.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby ticka1 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:56 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Hoping for something south of town. We haven't seen anything yet.


nothing for us here on the south of i-10 and east of baytown
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:17 pm

This is not over...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby sau27 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:23 pm

Looks like an outflow boundary is hanging from sugarland thru the SE side of town on radar.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:27 pm

tireman4 wrote:This is not over...


Flash Flood warning has just been issued until 12:15 am. CLL seeing entraining of cells, with our second potent one over us now..

Image


Sent: 21:18 CDT on 03-28-2018
Effective: 21:18 CDT on 03-28-2018
Expires: 00:15 CDT on 03-29-2018

Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
West central Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Central Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 917 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
College Station, Somerville, Snook, Burton, Millican, Lake
Somerville Dam, Kyle Field, Wellborn, Lyons, Independence, Quarry
and Carlos.
Instructions: Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Washington
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:28 pm

More rainfall, possibly heavy is coming overnight...

mcd0081.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0081 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1014 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AND SERN TX...NRN AND CTRL LA...CTRL MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 290213Z - 290800Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN RATES SHOULD AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2 IN/HR. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN RATES SUCH AS THOSE IN URBAN AREAS COULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...NUMERICAL MODELS AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EMERGE IN THE 02-05Z TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WEST TEXAS...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AND WITH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. IR SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SAN ANTONIO...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN OBSERVED LIGHTNING. THIS FITS WITH THE OBJECTIVE RAP FORECASTS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK) AND PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND CAN FOCUS RENEWED CELL GROWTH IN MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW. MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE FOCI APPEAR MOST LIKELY IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RECENT RAP FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE THAT PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD FIT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AS A NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF THE LLJ COMMENCES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENT (UPSHEAR FLANK) SITUATED FROM NEAR HOUSTON METRO INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE LOW 60S AT 01Z...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WERE IN THE MID-70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...THIS MAY FAVOR RENEWED CELL GROWTH NEAR AND JUST INTO THE COLD POOL. GREATER CONCERN FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WILL EXIST AFTER 03-04Z WHEN THE COMBINATION OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT AND AN EXISTING COASTAL FRONT SHOULD ESTABLISH A CONVERGENCE AXIS ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS TO FEED INTO SIMILAR AREAS...AND PERHAPS CONGEAL WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COLD POOL BOUNDARY. IT MAY BE WORTH MONITORING WHERE THE EFFECTIVE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE COLD POOL AND COLD FRONT EXISTS...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD BE PARTICULARLY ENHANCED. AS OF 02Z...THIS APPEARED TO BE NEAR K11R (BRENHAM TX)...AND THERE WAS A CORRESPONDING CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEARBY. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS AND RAP FORECASTS COULD PLACE THIS NEAR HOUSTON METRO IN A FEW HOURS. THIS IS YET ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN RATES THAT WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 IN/HR...AND WITH A GREATER RISK OF PERSISTENCE OF THESE HEAVIER RATES...FLASH FLOODING SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY. A REGION OF ENHANCED CONCERN WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ROUGHLY FROM VICTORIA TX...TO HOUSTON METRO...TO LAKE CHARLES. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...THIS ALSO INTERSECTS A LARGE METRO AREA AND SUSTAINED RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WOULD BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IF HOURLY RAIN RATES CAN PUSH UP TO AROUND 2 IN/HR AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST 90 MINUTES...WITH AT LEAST 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALL OF THIS SEEMS ACHIEVABLE...BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE DETAILS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...THE SQUALL LINE WAS SHOWING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS IN FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE THAT...INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE LINE WERE MOVING AT A LIMITED ENOUGH ANGLE TO THE LINE ORIENTATION TO PRODUCE MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN AN ISOLATED FASHION FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN PORTIONS OF LA/MS AS A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET. LAMERS ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby ticka1 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:33 pm

just friendly advice - if it rains alot overnight - wait until daylight to drive to avoid flooded roads. Going to bed will check during the night on rain.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby don » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:48 pm

Storms are really starting to fire up in the San Antonio area that’s the area to watch as the night goes on..
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:36 pm

Nasty cell just NE of Matagorda with hail and some rotation.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:49 pm

don wrote:Storms are really starting to fire up in the San Antonio area that’s the area to watch as the night goes on..


Storms are lined up from CLL to San Antonio and the Mexican border without a caboose in sight. 8 inches would not surprise me. Pretty close to 4 in by now - nothing official IMBY since our pup ate the rain gauge!
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