MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Changeable WX/Roller Coaster Pattern Contin

Postby BlueJay » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:36 am

It's Texas Independence Day! Fly your Texas flag on this beautiful March 2nd day!
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:43 am

Rain chances are increasing beginning late Sunday night into next Tuesday. The guidance is becoming a bit more aggressive suggesting area wide chance of showers, some heavy with thunderstorms ahead and along our next cold front. I continue to see rather cool temperatures for early March with days where highs struggle to reach the low 60's and lows in the coldest spots may near 32 to 34F after next weeks cold front.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:35 pm

While we await the next front and rainfall tomorrow and Monday, the Global guidance is suggesting a rather potent Southern Storm with a vigorous upper trough and surface low pressure system exiting the Southern Rockies into Texas and Oklahoma late next weekend. Behind this system is a shot of rather chilly air by early March standards.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:48 am

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


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The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby weatherrabbit » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:28 am

Very Interesting..
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:35 pm

I wouldn't read too much into those warmer than normal SST's in the Gulf. The Gulf is always warm enough to support Tropical Cyclones. What we will need to watch is some of the seasonal forecast and the ENSO. It appears ENSO will likely be neutral at best during peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin. The very long range ECWMF seasonal forecast suggest above normal pressures across the entire Atlantic Basin including the Gulf and below normal rainfall. No those seasonal forecasts will likely change in the next several months, but as of early March there is a lot of uncertainty on what the sensible may bring this summer.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:29 pm

A beautiful satellite image across SE TX this afternoon with scattered low and mid level clouds. Getting a few rays of sun between the clouds with some isolated showers across S Central TX. Rain and thunderstorms ramp up for Monday and Monday night ahead of the next cool front but will be followed by beautiful, cooler, and drier weather from Tuesday through Thursday. Everything is turning increasingly green every day as Spring 2018 approaches.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby sau27 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:51 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.


I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby mckinne63 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:52 pm

Our Bradford Pear tree is blooming! I have not seen so many blooms on it since Ike. It bloomed right after Ike, than it seemed to just stop blooming. Seeing some bluebonnets pop up in the gardens also, amongst the weeds :lol: Was a nice day today, nice breeze whilst we finished trimming the crepe myrtle. We were late this year on trimming, she was already starting to get lots of green.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Rain Chance Increasing Sunday-Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:13 pm

Sunday evening briefing from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening

The next cold front will be moving across the region Monday afternoon and evening providing another chance of rainfall. Moisture is on the increase with SE winds drawing Gulf moisture into the region this afternoon. Strong capping (warm mid level air) is preventing much thunderstorm development today and there is now well defined disturbance to our SW that looks like it could weaken the cap. Expect generally scattered showers moving inland off the Gulf this evening, overnight, and into early Monday.

Heating on Monday into the lower 80’s combined with cooling in the mid levels will help to erode the capping inversion. Frontal lift and the tail end of a trough across the central plains will help to lift the moist air mass resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Instability values are moderate by Monday afternoon with CAPE of 2,000-2,500 J/kg over the region so a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and strong winds the most likely severe threats…even though the threat is low. Heavy rainfall also will be possible Monday afternoon and evening as moisture increases and storms may have a period of cell training. Think most areas will experience .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with a few locations seeing 2-3 inches where the strongest storms track and under any sustained cell training.

Cold front will move off the coast Tuesday morning ushering in a cool refreshing air mass with lows falling into the 40’s Wednesday and Thursday and highs in the 60’s. Moisture begins to return by Friday ahead of another disturbance that may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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