MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:40 pm

Still patiently waiting by the Bay
We're just supplying all the energy from the GOM...

stay safe everyone...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:41 pm

Keep an eye on that discrete cell blowing up near Alvin.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:45 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 530 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Greater Greenspoint, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Northwestern Bush Intercontinental Airport around 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:56 pm

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
https://twitter.com/iembot_spc


Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Areas affected...the Upper Texas Coast into southwest and central
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

Valid 282248Z - 290015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

SUMMARY...Gradual weakening is expected into the early evening
hours. An isolated strong to severe storm is still possible where
Tornado Watch 22 remains in effect across the Upper Texas Coast into
parts of southwest and central LA.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretched from near Houston to Fort
Polk LA, then northeast toward far northeastern LA late this
afternoon. A southeastward surging gust front has largely resulted
in weakening of convection in the Sabine Valley vicinity with some
stronger cells still evident just north of Houston and to the east
of Fort Polk. Regional VWP data shows adequate low level shear for
rotating structures, but instability has begun to wane as peak
heating has passed. Given the overall convective trends over the
last hour, continued weakening is expected. However, an isolated
strong to severe storm along or ahead of the outflow boundary cannot
be ruled out and Tornado Watch 22 will continue across the Upper
Texas Coast into parts of southwest and central LA.

..Leitman.. 03/28/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:59 pm

unome wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:The heavy band is closing in on Cypress from the NW.


getting pretty dark here, need to turn on some lights


It was dusk-like during mid-day here.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Belmer » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:00 pm

Storms are starting to fire SE of Monterrey in Mexico... we will need to monitor how much development occurs and the movement of them as they move NE/ENE. These could be our overnight boomers. Think those mainly South of I-10 will have to worry about the severe aspect.

Edit to add: Models showed storms firing from this area a couple hours ago. So it is a bit late, though, future trends on the HRRR will be interesting to see if it can catch onto new initialization and the severity of it.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:01 pm

still a lot of juice there

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 282353Z - 290130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may develop across South Texas this evening, with
large hail the main threat. A more likely threat will evolve later
tonight as a storms develop along a southward advancing cold front.
Convective trends are being monitored and a watch may be needed at
some point over the next several hours this evening.

DISCUSSION...Weak convergence was evident across South Texas both in
surface observations and band of cumulus from Duval to Starr county
into adjacent portions of northeast Mexico. Hi-res guidance has been
persistent in storm development early this evening in the vicinity
of this boundary in a weakly capped moderately unstable environment.
However, guidance has been quicker and more robust with this
development than is currently being observed, resulting in quite a
bit of uncertainty. Should storms develop across South Texas or move
into this region from adjacent portions of Mexico, large hail will
be the main concern given steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear profiles. A glance at area VWP data indicates only
weak helicity values with light winds through about 3km. This should
temper any tornado threat.

While uncertainty remains high in the short-term, it appears more
likely that storms will develop later tonight as forcing for ascent
increases in conjunction with a southward advancing cold front. At
this time, it is unclear when a watch may be needed and trends will
be monitored closely.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/28/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:04 pm

Hoping to get something if just to wash the pollen away....
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby davidiowx » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:11 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:Hoping to get something if just to wash the pollen away....



Same here! Hopefully the mesoscale models are right, there’s a lot left to provide us south of the I-10 corridor later tonight.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby jasons » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:42 pm

2.22” here so far. I’m so glad to see the pollen finally wash away. Watching the new development out to the west and southwest...looks rather impressive so far.
Last Measurable Rainfall: June 19th
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