MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:18 pm

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803190015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Severe weather threat (large hail) continues across the area and
have expanded the severe thunderstorm watch from Montgomery to
Waller to Jackson county. Storms moving east and southeast but
should weaken between 8 and 9 pm.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:04 pm

local storm reports http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/ ... autoreload

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0137.html

Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas affected...south central through southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 190055Z - 190230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts next couple hours primarily from a
portion of south central through southeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Storms that developed earlier this afternoon are in the
process of evolving into a cluster with embedded supercells from
south central through southeast TX. Storms will continue east next
couple hours. However, 00Z RAOBS from Shreveport and Lake Charles
show a modest capping inversion near 800 mb suggesting increased
surface-based convective inhibition with onset of nocturnal cooling.
Thus while the storms will continue to pose a severe threat next
couple hours, a weakening trend will probably commence by 03Z.

..Dial.. 03/19/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:32 pm

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803190119

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-190200-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Liberty TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-Trinity TX-
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Onalaska to 6 miles southwest of Conroe.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Cleveland, Willis, Livingston, Shepherd, Panorama Village,
Onalaska, Cut And Shoot, New Waverly, Coldspring, Point Blank,
Goodrich, North Cleveland, Lake Livingston State Park, West
Livingston, Lake Conroe Dam, Oakhurst, Tarkington Prairie and
Evergreen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:34 pm

NWS HGX is rockin' it on Twitter

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:56 pm

The worst of the cells just passed north of Conroe and Cleveland.

So no show tonight for The Woodlands and south. The second cell brought us another 2-3 min of hail, but it is collapsing near Huntsville. The first cell is still raging near Livingston. Not quite quarter size in round 2 - no damage to cars and roof fortunately. There's some minor structural damage closer to Texas A&M.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby Cromagnum » Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:19 am

Amazing how February it rained nearly every single day and in March it has not rained at all so far outside of a spit and a sprinkle down here. Could use a quick 0.25 inch here and there to keep things happy.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby jasons » Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:41 am

Cromagnum wrote:Amazing how February it rained nearly every single day and in March it has not rained at all so far outside of a spit and a sprinkle down here. Could use a quick 0.25 inch here and there to keep things happy.


You got your wish. No rain here for 3 weeks, going on 4. It’s drying-up fast and we need some rain for the plants. Come this summer folks will be wishing we had a wet spring.
Last Measurable Rainfall: September 20
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Cold Front Arrives/Pleasant Dry WX Returns

Postby Cromagnum » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:22 am

It dried up enough that I could finally get some yardwork in. Battling lawn fungus all over my St Augustine due to February though. It's definitely feast or famine.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Cold Front Arrives/Pleasant Dry WX Returns

Postby tireman4 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:25 am

Although no worries here, folks in Alabama might be on edge today.
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Severe Storms In Alabama 03 19 18.PNG
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Cold Front Arrives/Pleasant Dry WX Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:56 am

Keeping an eye on next Monday and Tuesday for another potential severe weather event impacting portions of our Region. The ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms are showing up in the longer range ensemble scheme with a rather deep Western trough dropping a rather strong upper air disturbance into Northern Mexico/Arizona/New Mexico/West Texas. Dryline boundary across the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau with plenty of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture look available. We will need to monitor any capping issues that created a forecasting challenge yesterday for areas to our N and W. Unfortunately for those in the Brazos Valley and across portions of our Northern areas such as Madisonville/Huntsville on toward Lake Livingston, the capping inversion eroded and severe storms blossomed with hail the size of baseballs and severe thunderstorm straight line winds of 70 MPH+ causing a lot of damage.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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