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MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:34 pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas affected...north central through south central and east Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 182230Z - 190030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated supercells capable of producing very
large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue into the evening
from a part of north central into south central and east Texas. WW
11 might need to be extended farther south or possibly a small new
watch east of San Antonio might be needed to account for potential
new development.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated supercells that developed
along the dryline persist primarily from southern portion of north
central TX through south central TX. Visible imagery shows new high
based towers growing over south central TX within the more deeply
mixed regime along and just west of the dryline, as well as along a
confluence zone east of the dryline where the warm sector is
moderately unstable with steep lapse rates. A few of these new
updrafts might also evolve into mature supercells as they interact
with the strongly sheared and moderately unstable warm sector
(MLCAPE 2000 J/kg). Low level hodographs are not particularly large,
but strong effective bulk shear with unidirectional southwesterly
winds increasing to 60 kt through 8 km will support both right and
left movers.

..Dial.. 03/18/2018
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:56 pm

Hook echo east of Caldwell moving toward CLL.


Tornado in another cell north of Waco.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:00 pm

Another hook echo east of Lexington. These cells mean business. Softball size hail reported in Caldwell.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:01 pm

Tennis ball sized hail near Madisonville.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:17 pm

I guess be careful what I ask for - some tornado warnings earlier north of Waco - please rain, no severe

https://twitter.com/NWStornado

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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:18 pm

The dry line is exploding across S Central TX this evening and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended S to include additional counties in SE TX. I would not be surprised if the watch is extended E to include most of SE TX including the Houston metro area within the next few hours.
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

TXC015-089-239-339-473-477-481-190400-
/O.EXA.KHGX.SV.A.0011.000000T0000Z-180319T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 11 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

JACKSON

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

AUSTIN COLORADO MONTGOMERY
WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BELLVILLE, BRENHAM, BROOKSHIRE,
COLUMBUS, CONROE, EAGLE LAKE, EDNA, EL CAMPO, HEMPSTEAD, PIERCE,
PRAIRIE VIEW, SEALY, THE WOODLANDS, WEIMAR, WHARTON, AND WILLIS.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby unome » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:39 pm

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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:54 pm

unome wrote:3" hail, Bryan area (2 miles nnw of Spear) - hope all y'all stay safe tonight

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

(Day) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

(Night) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map


We had large pea size hail IMBY. It ain't over yet. Hook echo about 10 Mi west of CLL moving this way.

Have been concerned about this severe season. Things are exploding now.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:56 pm

2 and 3 inch hailstones reported in western College Station and Bryan.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Warmer WX/Clouds & Slight Rain Chances

Postby Belmer » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:17 pm

Katdaddy wrote:The dry line is exploding across S Central TX this evening and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended S to include additional counties in SE TX. I would not be surprised if the watch is extended E to include most of SE TX including the Houston metro area within the next few hours.


Doubtful the watch will be extended anymore eastward towards SETX this evening. These storms are moving into a not so favorable environment for continued strength or new initiation. Much of our area has a stronger CAP and while the lower level is not as dry, the mid and upper levels are much drier. The storms out west (mainly south of I-10) should quickly diminish and die down once the sun sets.
Last edited by Belmer on Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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