FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby sambucol » Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:50 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I think it's still far too early to accurately make predictions about the upcoming Hurricane Season as of today. The very early indicators suggest a neutral pattern near peak season. Frankly I think we need a break this year with so many still in restoration mode across Coastal Texas. So many of our neighbors Have yet to even begin the rebuilding process. We met with a family last Friday to finally begin the rebuilding process after a long fought battle with Flood Insurance that actually will cover their loss. Only 20% of home owners in SE Texas had flood insurance before Harvey came calling. The average reconstruction cost for rebuilding is running about 175K. Think of those that had zero flood insurance coverage. A vast majority of people do not have 250 Thousand Dollars lying around to rebuild and replace the contents they lost.

Check back in early April when our KHOU Weather Forum group head down to S Padre Island for the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. By then we may have a better feel for the upcoming Hurricane Season. Always remember it only takes one landfalling Hurricane to make for a very bad Season!

I agree about a respite. My best friend has flood insurance and she has been in a battle with them to pay her for her losses. It’s been very stressful to say the least. Nothing has been started with her home to restore it to liveable conditions simply because her flood insurance hasn’t wanted to pay out.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:45 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Surface front that brought the heavy rains on Sunday has pushed into the Gulf this morning, giving the area a break from rainfall.

Clearing skies overnight combined with wet grounds has resulted in widespread formation of dense fog and drizzle. Much of the fog and drizzle will end by late morning and skies may actually clear some by early afternoon. SW flow aloft could bring a disturbance or two across the area today and this may result in showers near the coast and offshore. Surface boundary offshore begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Tuesday and expect low clouds, drizzle, fog, and showers to fill in across the area. Any disturbance in the SW flow aloft could help to develop a few thunderstorms as the warm front lifts northward across the area.

Area will be in the warm sector on Wednesday with a few showers spreading northward off the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will approach the region late Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible along the boundary. Expect any line of storms to be weakening as it moves across SE TX with the best chances for any strong storms across our northern counties.

Surface high pressure builds in for the end of the week and first part of the weekend before winds turn back to the SE and Gulf moisture begins to return again.

Hydro:

Flood Warnings are in effect for the following watersheds

West Fork of the San Jacinto River at US 59:
Minor flooding is in progress and will continue today. River will fall below flood stage this evening

East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485:
Minor flooding is in progress and will continue for much of the week.

Upper Spring Creek:
Minor flooding is in progress from Hegar Rd upstream to the headwaters. Creek is cresting and will fall slowly today

Trinity River:
Moderate flooding is expected to begin later this week along the lower Trinity River at Liberty due to upstream inflows and releases from Lake Livingston.

Additional rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday does not currently appear to be heavy or sustained enough to result in additional flooding or rises on area watersheds.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby BlueJay » Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:29 pm

Although a bit chilly and extremely muddy outside today, I am so excited to see signs of life in the yard. The American Beauty berry is slowly sprouting new leaves, the day lilies are shooting up some bright green and the azaleas are budding and blooming! It gives me hope that warmer days will be here soon. : - D
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:37 pm

Oh, there's life alright in the yard...as in broad leaf kinda life... :lol:
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:30 am

A warm front will move onshore and across SE TX today bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday afternoon and night with the approach of the next front with highs in the low 80s. Look for nice ,cool, and mostly sunny skies to end the week on Friday.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby BlueJay » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:39 am

I guess it's safe to say that we will not be getting any snow in February 2018. That's OK by me. I am enjoying how this very short month is winding down.

On to March 2018...
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby harp » Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:40 pm

We are baking over here in SE La. Set numerous warm weather record highs this month. Mother Nature just turned winter off like a faucet starting in February.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby sambucol » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:13 pm

Any cold front on the horizon?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby CrashTestDummy » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:22 pm

We’ve had so much rain this season (almost 5” this month alone), it’s still standing in the yard. We have a service mow our front yard. They showed up this afternoon. They promptly stuck two of their riding mowers. They dug them out, and ‘mowed’ most of the rest of the yard with their weed eaters.

Hopefully the rain that’s forecasted for the rest of the week goes elsewhere. We need a break!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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