Same pattern continues to repeat over the area with the same results…fog, clouds, and rainfall.
Two completely different seasons over SE TX this morning being separated by a cold front currently stalling just inland from the coast. South of this front it is extremely humid and warm with dewpoints in the lower 70’s while north of the front the temperatures are in the 50’s with dewpoints in the 40’s and 50’s. Mid level short wave riding NE in the upper level flow out of NE MX has been resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north side of the front boundary or roughly NW of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land to The Woodlands. Radar estimates indicate this activity is producing 1-2 inches of rainfall, but has been moving at a fairly decent clip to keep flooding from occurring. Appears back edge of the showers and thunderstorms is advancing into the western portions of SE TX as the mid level short wave moves across the area. The surface front has shown little to no movement in the last few hours even though models suggest it will lift northward today. Think rainfall north of the boundary is helping to reinforce the surface boundary and will prevent much northward movement.
Should begin to see a break in the rainfall by late morning as the short wave moves off to the NE. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possibly mainly NW of the US 59 corridor and totals are already nearing 2.0-2.5 inches over portions of Grimes and Washington Counties. With the front stalled in the area through today any additional disturbances exiting MX across our area could spark new showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Front will get a push overnight and move offshore with drier air mass filtering in for Monday. Break from the gloom will be short lived as the old surface front begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Tuesday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the are Tuesday and Wednesday as the warm air mass pushes northward and another front moves southward across the region Wednesday evening. This front should have a better push and dry out the area for a few days late next week.
Hydro:
Recent rainfall over portions of NE/E/SE TX is resulting in rises on area rivers. Rivers…especially the Trinity…will continue to see responses due to the rainfall and run-off being generated. Portions of the Trinity River may approach flood stage this week along with rises on the Navasota and Brazos due to rainfall this morning.
srainhoutx wrote:I've received 3.40 inches of rainfall since the early morning thunderstorms. So locations across Waller/Montgomery/Liberty/San Jacinto Counties have exceeded 5 inches of rainfall. More rainfall is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with the approach of our next front to end a very dreary/foggy/cool month of February. I am so ready for Spring and sunshine. We've endured an eventful Winter across our Region and much of Texas.
Hang on to your hat. The first half of March looks very unsettled and cool.
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