FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[Cromagnum]

Hope it holds off. I have a flight out of Hobby at 8AM

[djjordan]

I drove through an absolute torrential downpour between Tomball and Beltway 8 on 249 between 2:30 and 3:15 AM. Could not see a thing!!! So much precipitable moisture for these storms to work with.

[srainhoutx]

[i] MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0046 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1023 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 251520Z - 252120Z SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS SEEN IN THE GOES-16 7.3/MICRON WV IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST AND IS FOSTERING AN EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL LA. MOISTURE IS RATHER WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AGAIN INCLUDES A CONTRIBUTION IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS FROM DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LIFTING UP FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST OVER SOUTHEAST TX...BUT THERE IS A POOL OF MUCAPE VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 1000+ J/KG POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT UP OVER THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND GAINING SOME ORGANIZATION WITHOUT ISSUE THIS MORNING. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SO THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TX INITIALLY AND THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LA WITH TIME AS GREATER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSPORT OCCURS HERE IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALREADY LOCAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR...AND WITH SOME PERIODIC REPEATING/TRAINING NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL TOTALS THAT COULD REACH UP INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MOIST OVERALL AND SO THE ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES FOCUS AND THEN PERHAPS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA. ORRISON ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV... [/i]

[stormlover]

Is the Beaumont area done with rain today srain?

[jasons]

Sent from Jeff close to 9AM:

Same pattern continues to repeat over the area with the same results…fog, clouds, and rainfall.

Two completely different seasons over SE TX this morning being separated by a cold front currently stalling just inland from the coast. South of this front it is extremely humid and warm with dewpoints in the lower 70’s while north of the front the temperatures are in the 50’s with dewpoints in the 40’s and 50’s. Mid level short wave riding NE in the upper level flow out of NE MX has been resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north side of the front boundary or roughly NW of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land to The Woodlands. Radar estimates indicate this activity is producing 1-2 inches of rainfall, but has been moving at a fairly decent clip to keep flooding from occurring. Appears back edge of the showers and thunderstorms is advancing into the western portions of SE TX as the mid level short wave moves across the area. The surface front has shown little to no movement in the last few hours even though models suggest it will lift northward today. Think rainfall north of the boundary is helping to reinforce the surface boundary and will prevent much northward movement.

Should begin to see a break in the rainfall by late morning as the short wave moves off to the NE. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possibly mainly NW of the US 59 corridor and totals are already nearing 2.0-2.5 inches over portions of Grimes and Washington Counties. With the front stalled in the area through today any additional disturbances exiting MX across our area could spark new showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Front will get a push overnight and move offshore with drier air mass filtering in for Monday. Break from the gloom will be short lived as the old surface front begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Tuesday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the are Tuesday and Wednesday as the warm air mass pushes northward and another front moves southward across the region Wednesday evening. This front should have a better push and dry out the area for a few days late next week.

Hydro:

Recent rainfall over portions of NE/E/SE TX is resulting in rises on area rivers. Rivers…especially the Trinity…will continue to see responses due to the rainfall and run-off being generated. Portions of the Trinity River may approach flood stage this week along with rises on the Navasota and Brazos due to rainfall this morning.

[srainhoutx]

I've received 3.40 inches of rainfall since the early morning thunderstorms. So locations across Waller/Montgomery/Liberty/San Jacinto Counties have exceeded 5 inches of rainfall. More rainfall is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with the approach of our next front to end a very dreary/foggy/cool month of February. I am so ready for Spring and sunshine. We've endured an eventful Winter across our Region and much of Texas.

Hang on to your hat. The first half of March looks very unsettled and cool.

[Katdaddy]

The severe weather threat has pushed E and NE of the Houston-Galveston areas and into LA this evening. Who is ready for sunny Spring days? Onward to the March thread.

[cperk]

I received .22 inches today.

[sambucol]

I've received 3.40 inches of rainfall since the early morning thunderstorms. So locations across Waller/Montgomery/Liberty/San Jacinto Counties have exceeded 5 inches of rainfall. More rainfall is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with the approach of our next front to end a very dreary/foggy/cool month of February. I am so ready for Spring and sunshine. We've endured an eventful Winter across our Region and much of Texas.

Hang on to your hat. The first half of March looks very unsettled and cool.

I’m wondering about hurricane season this year. Any ideas if it will be quite active? Especially in GOM.

[srainhoutx]

I think it's still far too early to accurately make predictions about the upcoming Hurricane Season as of today. The very early indicators suggest a neutral pattern near peak season. Frankly I think we need a break this year with so many still in restoration mode across Coastal Texas. So many of our neighbors Have yet to even begin the rebuilding process. We met with a family last Friday to finally begin the rebuilding process after a long fought battle with Flood Insurance that actually will cover their loss. Only 20% of home owners in SE Texas had flood insurance before Harvey came calling. The average reconstruction cost for rebuilding is running about 175K. Think of those that had zero flood insurance coverage. A vast majority of people do not have 250 Thousand Dollars lying around to rebuild and replace the contents they lost.

Check back in early April when our KHOU Weather Forum group head down to S Padre Island for the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. By then we may have a better feel for the upcoming Hurricane Season. Always remember it only takes one landfalling Hurricane to make for a very bad Season!