FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby jasons » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:28 am

Wind is quickly shifting back to the SE in response to the next system. The "warm front" is pretty diffuse now as the warm, moist flow washes out the shallow cold air.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:14 pm

Partly sunny skies along the Upper TX Coast with temps in the upper 70s and a few 80s currently. To the NW of Houston there are areas of fog and cooler temps ahead of the warm front that will be pushing further inland this afternoon. Only a slight chance of a thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. It will feel like Spring today behind the warm front.

I must say its very nice to see the sun with partly cloudy skies and and the temp at 77F.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby jasons » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:49 pm

Already up to 80F here.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby tireman4 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:23 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows ceilings
beginning to scatter at CXO, IAH, HOU, SGR, and LBX. Intermittent
MVFR conditions will be possible at these terminals through early
afternoon but decent mixing will allow for VFR conditions to
prevail for at least a few hours before sunset. Daytime heating
may also contribute to isolated SHRA developing near these
terminals this afternoon.

VLIFR conditions continue to impact CLL and UTS (located north of
a stationary boundary also evident on visible satellite bisecting
Southeast Texas from VCT to LFK) and are expected to linger
through mid- afternoon before the stationary boundary begins to
lift north as a warm front and allows for ceilings to lift to
MVFR. Periods of VLIFR sea fog will continue to impact GLS through
the afternoon. Webcams have shown some improvement around the
island and expect a window for IFR/MVFR this afternoon before fog
rolls back in this evening.

A developing 40 knot low level jet overnight and associated
mixing should help mitigate against overall fog potential, but
should result in ceilings lowering to IFR after 06Z. Associated
moisture advection may result in a few SHRA developing again early
Saturday morning.

Southerly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon should decrease into
the 6-10 knot range after sunset. Southerly winds are expected to
increase into the 10-15 knot range during the day Saturday ahead
of a cold front approaching the terminals after 21Z.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:55 pm

Bring the cold dry air back.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby mckinne63 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:00 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Bring the cold dry air back.


Yes! Not ready for hot and humid. I park in a parking garage at the office, the car was so thick with smoggy stuff I had to roll down the windows and turn on the defrosters. Have the a/c on in the house. I have said it before and will say it again, shorts in February is just wrong :lol:
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby jasons » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:43 pm

Well gang, it looks more and more like the Siberian Express just isn't going to pay us a visit after all. I have to admit, in Mid-January, what I was seeing in Siberia & in the long-range models had me pretty scared. I thought it was going to come down like an avalanche, a classic old-fashioned blue norther. One for the ages.

And then it kept getting further...and further it out. Then it would go...and come...and go...then gone.

Yes, it looks like it's gonna get chilly again in March (maybe....we might lose that too), but I think Spring has sprung and IAH has seen its last freeze until this fall. I'm gonna give it one more week to be safe and then it's planting time for me. I can't wait - there is nothing that signals hope, youth, freshness, and life better than a thriving spring garden! (except babies, puppies and kittens of course!)

Happy Friday to all - if you like the warmth, get out and enjoy some sun. :)
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 24, 2018 8:54 am

We will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby Belmer » Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:29 pm

We will need to watch radar trends closely next few hours to see when the convection starts building north of I-10 as the frontal boundary slides southward in our area. Latest few HRRR runs are becoming a slight concern right along I-10 here in Houston. As the storms fire off to our north and become linear as they move south, trends are that the line of storms will slow down and train across our area. In addition, as Steve mentioned, disturbances will ride along that boundary from our SW throughout the night into tomorrow to increase the rainfall. With a very moist atmosphere right now with PW values high, we could see some very heavy rain tonight.

1-2 inches looks promising and depending on where the band of rain slows down and stalls, those areas could see 4 inches with some isolated 5-6 inches... which right along I-10 (+/- 20 miles south/north) is where the HRRR wants to put the bullseye of that precipitation right in Houston.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby stormlover » Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:54 pm

When does it look like the rain will start and end ?
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