FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:09 pm

Good news for those looking forward to some warmer weather. The afternoon Updated CPC Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests warmer temperatures and a wetter pattern N of Coastal Texas where drought conditions continue to expand. It appears the battle of seasons changing may be showing its hand.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby jasons » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:35 pm

Oh my gosh, the NWS has apparently done away with their URLs for local offices (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/). It redirects to weather.gov.

Problem is, on weather.gov, when I click on the link for NWS-HGX guess what -- it still maps to the old (broken) URL! So they redirected me to weather.gov but forgot to update weather.gov....like an infinite loop....I'd send a note to the local NWS office if I could just get to the page, darn it!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:42 pm

jasons wrote:Oh my gosh, the NWS has apparently done away with their URLs for local offices (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/). It redirects to weather.gov.

Problem is, on weather.gov, when I click on the link for NWS-HGX guess what -- it still maps to the old (broken) URL! So they redirected me to weather.gov but forgot to update weather.gov....like an infinite loop....I'd send a note to the local NWS office if I could just get to the page, darn it!


The Texas offices are migrating to their new page. Here you go...

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby jasons » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:10 pm

Thank you! That works!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:39 pm

Could be a rather nasty weather day tomorrow, so be aware if you have outdoor activities planned...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Stubborn cloud cover is finally beginning to erode across the
northern counties and this may allow a few sites to briefly reach
the upper 40s by the COB today. A raw day overall that will be
our coldest as there will be subsequent day warming as the region
undergoes a transition from this cold air advection pattern to a
warm air advection scenario over the next couple of days. A
shortwave disturbance embedded in the mid to upper level flow is
forecast to move out of central Mexico this evening and ride up
the coastline within the mid layer southwesterlies tomorrow
morning. This disturbance will be moving into a high pwat air
mass as current near inch pw values are forecast to increase to
around 1.5 inches by late morning per the advection of a higher
moist southwestern Gulf air mass into the region. While all of the
NWP spectral output generates light Tuesday QPF over eastern
Texas...the Euro is the most bull-ish with 0.75" to 1.00" totals
through 00Z Wednesday. Short term higher resolution modeling also
paints areawide low QPF through tomorrow evening. Thus...have
lifted tomorrow morning's POPs to moderate to high chance during
the morning becoming likely tomorrow afternoon. Forecast is for
mainly rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms. The
profile is fairly unstable above a steep lower 5k foot inversion
...prog soundings showing modest MU CAPE and greater than 30 K
indices. If this weak disturbance can generate enough gentle lift
atop this isentropic background...then believe that many will
experience measurable rain tomorrow (few tenths to locally near an
inch) with rumbles of thunder as elevated convection would occur.
While thunderstorms are not expected to become surface-based
still feel there is a moderate risk that any storm could produce
small hail. Another cool (not as cold) and cloudy Tuesday with
slow afternoon warming...increased moisture and lessened cold air
advection will have many reaching the lower to middle 50s by mid
day or a near 10 degree warm up from morning temperatures.

As surface high pressure establishes itself over the U.S. Mid
Atlantic region and upper ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico
...our synoptic pattern will make that warm air advection transition
Wednesday. Tuesday's easterly winds will veer onshore and pull up
higher lower 60 dew point air over lower to middle 50 degree
nearshore and bay water. Thus...the maritime will likely be under
periods of dense sea fog from mid-week through a cold frontal
passage Friday. Mid to late weather's theme will be of partially
cloudy skies (might actually see peaks of sunshine!)...subsequent
warming to above 'normal'...and low rain chances as an occasional
weak western ripple passes across eastern Texas. Wednesday and
Thursday's conditions will be downright spring-like as mornings in
the average 60s warm into the middle to upper 70s (with 80F on
Thursday not being out of the question)....or a good 30 degrees
warmer than today. Entrenched southwest flow/enhanced LLJ will
warm 85H temperatures into the 16 C degree realm Thursday so the
signal is certainly there for a couple of warm pre-frontal days.
While the medium range models are differing in frontal strength
they are in good agreement with the next cold front coming through
during Friday afternoon. This weekend will be a mixed bag as
Saturday will be cool and cloudy (50s) with warming on Sunday
into the near normal 60s. Overcast conditions with a similar
(isentropic) set-up that we are experiencing now. Winds will veer
around to onshore by early next week to commence a new warming
and potential sea fog trend. 31
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby jasons » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:51 pm

One thing is certain: tonight’s baseball practice at ORWALL is going to feel pretty miserable!!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Strong Arctic Front & Slowly Warming Tem

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:10 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:
Cromagnum wrote:It's 40 at our house but grass is already starting to green up in places. Is winter basically over for us, or is there anything on the horizon for freezing (or near freezing) the rest of the month? Pretty much counting on a wet spring so looking to put down preemergents and bifen for ants as soon as it is dry for long enough to undo the swamp.



fipronil is much better for fire ant control than Bifen. Can DIY if you know where to get it or find a pest control guy to apply it.


We're below freezing in CLL right now. 30°F.


Haven't tried fipronil, but I put Bifen down in August and still have not seen a fire ant bed in my yard while my neighborhood has 100s.



Fire ants hide underground at that a temperature that high (100°F and above), anyway. They love low to mid 80s°F and moist, like their home in Argentina and Brazil! Bifen's OK - but doesn't last as long and kills other species of native ants and other insects...and doesn't eliminate all the colonies. Fipronil can last 6-12 months easily - but it's not cheap. I've seen 3 mounds in a total 9 years in our yard since getting the critters under control. Success depends upon neighbors' effort as well. That and Amdro is all you need. It's nice to be able to use the front and back yards year round without ant attacks, especially when my kids were younger.

If I need general insect control, including for pesky cinch bugs, I use triazacide. It's the replacement for diazinon.

Costwise, though Bifen is considerably cheaper. However, I also have a chemical sensitivity/allergy to bifen, anyway, I discovered after spraying nests of spider mites in a juniper tree.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:22 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Could be a rather nasty weather day tomorrow, so be aware if you have outdoor activities planned...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Stubborn cloud cover is finally beginning to erode across the
northern counties and this may allow a few sites to briefly reach
the upper 40s by the COB today. A raw day overall that will be
our coldest as there will be subsequent day warming as the region
undergoes a transition from this cold air advection pattern to a
warm air advection scenario over the next couple of days. A
shortwave disturbance embedded in the mid to upper level flow is
forecast to move out of central Mexico this evening and ride up
the coastline within the mid layer southwesterlies tomorrow
morning. This disturbance will be moving into a high pwat air
mass as current near inch pw values are forecast to increase to
around 1.5 inches by late morning per the advection of a higher
moist southwestern Gulf air mass into the region. While all of the
NWP spectral output generates light Tuesday QPF over eastern
Texas...the Euro is the most bull-ish with 0.75" to 1.00" totals
through 00Z Wednesday. Short term higher resolution modeling also
paints areawide low QPF through tomorrow evening. Thus...have
lifted tomorrow morning's POPs to moderate to high chance during
the morning becoming likely tomorrow afternoon. Forecast is for
mainly rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms. The
profile is fairly unstable above a steep lower 5k foot inversion
...prog soundings showing modest MU CAPE and greater than 30 K
indices. If this weak disturbance can generate enough gentle lift
atop this isentropic background...then believe that many will
experience measurable rain tomorrow (few tenths to locally near an
inch) with rumbles of thunder as elevated convection would occur.
While thunderstorms are not expected to become surface-based
still feel there is a moderate risk that any storm could produce
small hail. Another cool (not as cold) and cloudy Tuesday with
slow afternoon warming...increased moisture and lessened cold air
advection will have many reaching the lower to middle 50s by mid
day or a near 10 degree warm up from morning temperatures.

As surface high pressure establishes itself over the U.S. Mid
Atlantic region and upper ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico
...our synoptic pattern will make that warm air advection transition
Wednesday. Tuesday's easterly winds will veer onshore and pull up
higher lower 60 dew point air over lower to middle 50 degree
nearshore and bay water. Thus...the maritime will likely be under
periods of dense sea fog from mid-week through a cold frontal
passage Friday. Mid to late weather's theme will be of partially
cloudy skies (might actually see peaks of sunshine!)...subsequent
warming to above 'normal'...and low rain chances as an occasional
weak western ripple passes across eastern Texas. Wednesday and
Thursday's conditions will be downright spring-like as mornings in
the average 60s warm into the middle to upper 70s (with 80F on
Thursday not being out of the question)....or a good 30 degrees
warmer than today. Entrenched southwest flow/enhanced LLJ will
warm 85H temperatures into the 16 C degree realm Thursday so the
signal is certainly there for a couple of warm pre-frontal days.
While the medium range models are differing in frontal strength
they are in good agreement with the next cold front coming through
during Friday afternoon. This weekend will be a mixed bag as
Saturday will be cool and cloudy (50s) with warming on Sunday
into the near normal 60s. Overcast conditions with a similar
(isentropic) set-up that we are experiencing now. Winds will veer
around to onshore by early next week to commence a new warming
and potential sea fog trend. 31



Cold overperformed again. The high here was 46°F, 8°F under that predicted by NWS, local mets, TWC.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby jasons » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:00 pm

I think that baseball practice was the coldest one I’ve been to. Almost all the parents eventually fled to their cars to keep warm. Us coaches weren’t so lucky. Still thawing out even after layering up. Can’t wait for the warmer weather.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:31 am

The blah roller coaster weather continues onward. Radar indicates showers moving into SE TX this morning as yet another cloudy day begins. Temps will be slightly warmer in the low 50s than yesterday. High temps still look to warm into the 70s for Valentines Day and Thursday however not much sun is expected. More clouds and rain Friday through early next week with cooler temps for the weekend behind a cool front.
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