FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possible

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FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby BlueJay » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:15 pm

srain keeps hinting that February will include more of this real wintery weather. Let's find out.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:48 pm

Two winter weather events in February for SE TX
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby harp » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:16 pm

If the arctic reloads and comes south, will there be a southern storm track with it? I know it's too soon to tell, I just thought I would throw that out there.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:53 am

Not going to spend a great deal of time on the February Outlook the next few days, but I am seeing some interesting 'hints' at many levels that certainly could offer potential for much colder air arriving near February 7th or so. As we know our atmosphere is connected to so many different features at multiple levels and the features offer clues to what our sensible weather may bring in the long range. I continue to see the MJO inducing the strongest tropical forcing we have seen this winter in the Western Pacific as of today. The ECMWF suggests a move into Phase 7, possibly Phase 8 as we begin February. The Teleconnection Indices suggest a very negative WPO meaning a big Bering Sea/Arctic Circle Ridge and a tanking EPO (Alaska/Yukon Ridge) developing with the possibilities of a Greenland Blocking Ridge as well. Other features are trending toward the possibility of Stratospheric Warming as well as a possible split in the Polar Vortex which has been very stable so far the winter. That mean that all levels from the Stratosphere to the Troposphere may be working together in the days ahead. For those following the guidance, stick to the Ensembles the next week or so to look for signs of the upcoming pattern. Those will give a more realistic understanding of what the pattern may be capable of versus looking at the every 6 hour GFS and even every 12 hour ECMWF.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby don » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:06 pm

CMC for the past few runs has been consistently cutting off a low around the beginning of February, Something to watch as the CMC has been good this season at detecting storms in the long range, it detected the 3 winter weather events we've had this season before the Euro or GFS.And keep in mind we don't have to have a very cold airmass to get a winter storm,in fact, the air mass being too cold tends to work against us sometimes because of the suppression of the storm track.

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:04 am

The overnight Ensemble package continues to advertise the first weekend in February could be rather chilly. Still way too soon to know the 'finer details', but many of the indicators we look to could to suggest much colder Arctic Air may well return to Canada and the Great Plains into Mexico.

01232018 00Z 240 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

01232018 00Z 240 ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.png

01222018 4indices.png

01232018 AO ao_sprd2.gif
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby tireman4 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:49 pm

Please use this map for entertainment purposes only, but boy those deep shades of purple...nice..
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby snowman65 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:44 pm

tireman4 wrote:Please use this map for entertainment purposes only, but boy those deep shades of purple...nice..


I like purple :D
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby snowman65 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:53 pm

Can someone tell me how to read this chart (in a semi-understandable way)..lol
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby don » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:39 am

0z Euro is very interesting...
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