FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby mckinne63 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:14 pm

Hearing thunder here in Stafford. And it is now pouring rain!
mckinne63
 
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby jasons » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:33 pm

Next round, here it comes..
Last Measurable Rainfall: September 13
jasons
 
Posts: 2031
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:46 am

mcd0027.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0027 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 237 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...NRN/CTRL LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 220736Z - 221300Z SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ONGOING FLASH FLOODING TO PERSIST...OR FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEW FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP. DISCUSSION...A VARIETY OF RAINFALL ESTIMATES (NSSL QPE, MRMS) AT 06Z INDICATED A BROAD SWATH FROM FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GROUND IN THIS AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO BE SATURATED...AND ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND RECENT FLASH FLOOD REPORTS SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING PERSIST AS OF 0730Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...OR CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEW FLOODING TO DEVELOP. SOME FACTORS MAY COMBINE TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SCALE OF THE HEAVIER (1 IN/HR OR MORE) RAIN RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAKE THE CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS MORE SCATTERED IN GENERAL. A PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA IS QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED NVA BEHIND THAT WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...AND THE AREA WILL ALSO GET INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND 09-12Z...SOMETHING ELSE THAT WOULD FAVOR SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROJECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH 850MB WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS MAY INTRODUCE MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND INTERRUPT THE UNIFORM FLOW THAT HAS FAVORED TRAINING RAIN BANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THUS FAR. THAT BEING SAID...BROADLY CONFLUENT...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTLINED DISCUSSION AREA. AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE CELLS AND SMALL RAIN BANDS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE CURRENT GROUND CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5 IN/HR COULD OCCUR WITH SUFFICIENT TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. LAMERS ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:08 am

Very able weather and rainfall look to continue to end February. Warm front moves N tomorrow and we will approach 80F for highs. Disturbances continue to ride the very noisy sub tropical jet stream across Texas and from the West where a deep trough is established and additional disturbances ride down the base of the trough and head toward the Plains. A cold front arrives Sunday dropping the temperatures once again and then return N as a warm front early next week.
Attachments
02222018 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:01 am

I for one welcome our mosquito and weeds overlords.
Cromagnum
 
Posts: 355
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:42 pm

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:50 am

NWSWGRFC‏Verified account @NWSWGRFC · 32m32 minutes ago
It continues to rain...and more rain is expected. Mainstem river flooding is forecast across most of E and NE TX. Maybe a break this weekend, before a return of precip next week. #txwx #txflood


02222018 WGRFC DWphyOEVQAApti1.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby tireman4 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:27 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221543
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
With morning fog and clouds suppressing temperature rises some
this morning, have taken highs down a little. Also, with the rain
fizzling some up north, have reconfigured PoPs today to focus
closer to the coast instead, particularly this afternoon as a
subtle shortwave will pass by and should give the coverage of
showers a bit of a boost.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning Southeast Texas temperatures are cool in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front with upper 30s to lower 40s
north, upper 40s to lower 50s central and lower 60s near
the coast. Radar is showing mainly showers and some isolated
thunderstorms with the greatest concentration generally north
of the I-10 corridor. With a persistent southwest aloft for
the next several days, expect to see periods of showers and
thunderstorms with the higher rain chances up north and the
lower rain chances closer to the coast. An onshore flow
returns to the area and strengthens on Friday and Saturday
resulting in warming temperatures. A cold front moves through
the area Saturday night and cools us back down. An onshore
flow looks to come back on Monday night or Tuesday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and pressures begin to
fall off to our northwest. 42

MARINE...
Stationary front situated from roughly High Island to 30nm south of
Matagorda Bay will be returning north as a warm front today. Areas
of dense sea fog is situated near the front and will become a
problem again for the bays as onshore flow resumes. Fog will be an
issue until late Sat night with the passage of another front.
Onshore flow and building seas in advance may require caution flags
in the 20-60nm waters Fri night & Sat. Northeast winds behind the
front will prevail for a couple of days before veering onshore again
on Tue. 47

AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions expected with LIFR/IFR ceilings and areas of
fog/shra persisting throughout the day. Metro airports may see a few
hours of MVFR ceilings late in the afternoon once the warm front
passes to the north - but it`ll be temporary and expect them to fall
right back down after sunset. Fog and periods of -ra can be expected
overnight as moisture overruns the warm front and subtle
disturbances embedded in the sw flow aloft move overhead. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 53 75 64 75 / 40 60 40 30 60
Houston (IAH) 67 62 79 67 79 / 60 50 30 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 70 64 73 65 74 / 50 30 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out
20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1885
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby JulesC » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:56 pm

Umm...I thought it was supposed to be in the 70’s today but the highest temperature I’ve seen here in Katy has been about 60 degrees. What’s up with that and will it continue tomorrow?
JulesC
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:26 pm

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby jasons » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:45 pm

You can see the front on radar, basically near downtown Houston and stretching from NNE to SSW. It is nearly stationary but sagging a little to the south and east again.
Last Measurable Rainfall: September 13
jasons
 
Posts: 2031
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:48 am

It looks like the front will begin heading N and out of our hair today ushering in warmer temperatures today and tomorrow with not much of a chance of rainfall until Sunday with the next frontal passage. This may be the first time since mid January that we have escaped rainfall on a Saturday. Hopefully there will be good weather for the trail riders arriving today and for the Parade tomorrow. Happy Go Texan Day in Houston!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

PreviousNext

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest