FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:50 am

Front placement as of 10:50 am 02 21 18
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:57 am

02212018 mcd0023.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0023
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO W-CNTRL AND NRN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 211543Z - 212115Z

SUMMARY...AN AXIS OF TRAINING HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR...ORIENTED FROM SERN TX INTO CNTRL/NRN LA MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR...AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH
KPOE DUAL-POL ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 IN/HR...HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z IN FAR ERN TX
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OBSERVED FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF WRN LA. EARLIER NEARBY OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOWED SIMILAR
RAINFALL RATES TO THE DUAL-POL ESTIMATES ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION MAY SUPPORT ACTUAL OBSERVED RATES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE DUAL-POL ESTIMATES...PERHAPS 1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR OVER
JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL INFLOW WAS CONFLUENT INTO A SLOW
MOVING FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NRN MS/LA INTO A SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF SHV...WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING SWWD INTO S-CNTRL TX
AT 15Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR FEBRUARY
RECORD VALUES AT SHV FOR 12Z AND AREA-WIDE VALUES ARE 200 TO 300
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

OBSERVED AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOW
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ONGOING LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN RATES
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY SEEMS TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE NRN
GRADIENT OF MLCAPE AS SEEN ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE FOR 15Z.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EVACUATION...BENEATH THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN ONLY SLOW
FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE JET PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR TRAINING TO CONTINUE WHILE SLOWLY EXPANDING DOWNSTREAM INTO
NRN LA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN AXES OF TRAINING WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 21Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby ticka1 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:42 pm

What do the rains look like later this afternoon? I was stuck in the traffic nightmare on I-10 East this morning in Baytown. Trying to get work done and keep an eye on weather. Will we have any flooding rains this afternoon? I work near Edloe and 59.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:34 pm

Be patient..it is slowly working its way through the Houston Metro...
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby unome » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:01 pm

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:28 pm

This was not a good week to break in a new puppy. Rainy and waterlogged yard :cry: .
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:19 pm

Pouring rain by the bay - third time today
which makes me think
100 days until Hurricane Season 2018
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby mckinne63 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:27 pm

DoctorMu wrote:This was not a good week to break in a new puppy. Rainy and waterlogged yard :cry: .


See, you should've bought that duck. :lol:
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby ticka1 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:17 pm

is the rain over with for tonight?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby CrashTestDummy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:09 pm

mckinne63 wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:This was not a good week to break in a new puppy. Rainy and waterlogged yard :cry: .


See, you should've bought that duck. :lol:


Or a puddle, er, poodle. Our newest hot laps the yard, looking for the standing water. You can actually see a grin on her face as she rounds the corner, looks over at the next puddle of water she is going to aim at, and makes a bee line for it.

Luckily, we have a utility room to wash her off in.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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