FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby unome » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:52 am

16 at Dalhart (wind chill of 3) http://www.weather.gov/lub/

72at IAH http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

wind chimes & lightning/thunder woke me earlier, brief power outage, air dead calm now

looks like some outages in DWH area http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:34 am

Update from Jeff:

Urban Flood Advisory for SE Harris County and Galveston County until 515am.

Band of heavy rainfall producing 1-2 inches per hour from Pasadena to League City. HCFCD gage has recorded 1 inch of rainfall in 30 minutes over Beamer Ditch near the south Beltway. Additional rainfall of .5 of an inch of rainfall will be possible over the next 30 minutes.

Additional showers and thunderstorms over Matagorda and Brazoria Counties will lift NNE toward SW Harris County over the next 1-2 hours.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby snowman65 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:07 am

We have been finally getting the weather we were supposed to have all winter because of la nina (temp wise, anyway). We had a surprisingly cold and "snowy" winter, but now it's time to pay the piper. Party's over....lol.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:14 am

Cold front continues to advance S across SE Texas. Currently the frontal boundary is South of Brenham and Huntsville. It's 49Fin Brenham and 73F in Angleton/Lake Jackson. Take a jacket today. You'll need it if your headed into town.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:45 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
We`re starting to see a break in the precip as a upper level
disturbance departs to the northeast. But suspect the break is
just temporary as returns are starting to reappear along the
frontal boundary in the Hill Country. Think this precip will
eventually fill back in. Front has pushed south of CLL and should
make it fairly close to the coast toward sunset. A mix of MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities will persist (IFR will dominate behind
the front). Still concerned about locally heavy rain along/south
of the front. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across Southeast
Texas early this morning and move rapidly off to the north and
north northeast. This fast motion has been keeping peak rainfall
rates (according to some Harris County Flood Warning System gages)
at around 1 to 2 inches per hour, and a couple gages between
Houston and Katy already have totals over 2 inches. The potential
is there for additional activity to develop during the day today
as a slow moving cold front currently across our N and NW counties
possibly becomes a focus as it works its way toward the coast. It
is possible that activity will continue to move fast enough to
keep rainfall totals below area flash flood guidance values
(generally around 2.5 to 3.5 inches in 1 and 3 hours and 3.5 to
4.5 inches in 6 hours), however very high and near record
precipitable water values ahead of the front in combination with a
30 to 40 knot low level jet and ejecting shortwaves/impulses
moving across the area in the deep southwest flow aloft could
bring additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
The stronger activity or where any training sets up has the
potential to produce higher rainfall rates (1 to 3 inches per hour
with locally higher amounts) that could lead to flooding, and
have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of our
area through this afternoon (WPC does have most of our area in a
slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall today). It is also
quite possible that the cold front could stabilize a large part of
the Watch area to prevent any significant additional development.
We will likely need to do some Watch reconfigured during the day
as we see whether or not additional heavy rains do develop. 42

MARINE...
Winds have diminished, but lingering 4-6 foot seas remain so will
maintain the caution flags offshore. Visibility is all over the
place in the nearshore waters (fine where there`s precip, but some
dense fog elsewhere). Will also maintain the ongoing dense fog
advisory for the nearshore waters. Cold front is forecast to sag
close to the Houston Ship Channel-Matagorda Bay prior to
sunset...then likely stall along the coast before moving back north
on Thurs. Fog will be an issue in the warm sector through
tonight...then persist until the next front moves off the coast late
Sat. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 39 56 51 73 / 90 70 60 50 50
Houston (IAH) 74 54 69 64 76 / 90 70 60 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 72 61 68 64 71 / 70 70 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out
20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:14 am

Differences in Temperatures at 8:15 am
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Differences in Temperatures 02 21 18.PNG
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:16 am

Front Placement as of 8:15 am
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Front Placement 02 21 18.PNG
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby Belmer » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:23 am

Here in Pasadena, woke up to some of the loudest thunder I have heard in a long time. Felt like CG lightning was hitting everywhere around my house. Woke up around 3:45 this morning to car alarms going off in my neighborhood.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:16 am

The front is passing through NW Harris County at this time. Temperature has dropped into the low 60's and falling.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:09 am

Srain is right, the temperature difference is stark...
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Temperature Difference Between Hooks and Bush 02 21 18.PNG
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