FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:55 am

There is an upside to all this rain - our blue bonnets will be gorgeous this year!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby Cromagnum » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:10 am

Spring has fully sprung at my house. Everything is in bloom. Is this setting up to be one of those years where everything gets going early and we get a March freeze to reboot everything?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby don » Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:34 pm

12z Euro is more aggressive than what its been showing the last few runs, with rainfall amounts approaching 4 inches in portions of Harris County and Montgomery County.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:09 pm

don wrote:12z Euro is more aggressive than what its been showing the last few runs, with rainfall amounts approaching 4 inches in portions of Harris County and Montgomery County.


The GFS trended a bit wetter as well and the GEFS also is wetter. Anytime we have multiple frontal boundaries stalling, slipping back N and slowly pushing S and stalling along the Coast again and return back N before pushing S for a 3rd time over the next 7 days, forecasting the exact rainfall amounts will be difficult at best. We will need to watch the trends closely Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday for any unforeseen mesoscale features that can wreak havoc on our sensible weather forecast this week. The Updated WPC QPF charts for the next 7 days has rainfall across our area and most of Texas into Louisiana throughout the period/daily.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:29 pm

We just brought home a new puppy. We should have gotten a duck instead. Miserable rainy week ahead.


It probably won't rain for the entirety of July and August.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:26 am

Jeff issued an Update yesterday late afternoon and it still looks relevant this morning...

Heavy rainfall possible over SE TX Tuesday evening-Thursday morning.

Best chances for heavy rainfall reaching or exceeding flash flood thresholds will be along an north of a line from College Station to Lake Livingston.

Discussion:
Highly active upper level flow out of the SW will pump copious amounts of Pacific moisture and numerous disturbances across SE TX starting late Tuesday. Upper level ridge over the SE US and deep trough over the western US of nearly equal intensity will result in a prolonged rainfall event from central TX to the OH River Valley for much of this week. A very slow moving frontal boundary will separate spring (temps in the 70’s) to its southeast from winter (temps in the 30’s and 40’s) to its NW over the next several days and this “battle ground” will favor repeated episodes of thunderstorms along the boundary with each disturbance that ejects out of MX and NE along the frontal slope. Origin of incoming air mass is near the SW Caribbean off the eastern coast of Belize and this long belt of moist air is traveling across the SW/W Gulf of Mexico and then arcing across C/SE TX into the mid MS valley. By Tuesday evening surface to 300mb moisture levels over SE TX will be near maximum values for this time of year with PWS nearing 1.6-1.8 inches.

Appears the incoming cold front will stall/slow on Tuesday from near Austin to just N of College Station to Huntsville and then NE into AR. This will support heavy rainfall in a fairly narrow band Tuesday evening in this region as a fairly strong disturbance ejects out of MX with additional thunderstorms developing Tuesday night as strong lift overspreads the very moist air mass over SE TX. Heavy rainfall cores will help to shift the boundary slowly SE even though the flow aloft is parallel to the boundary and there is no significant push of the front. Front should be moving deeper into SE TX and approaching the US 59 corridor Wednesday morning which will shift the axis of showers and thunderstorms to the SE over much of SE TX for Wednesday. While moisture levels remain high, dynamics aloft look to weaken some on Wednesday resulting in less concentration of heavy rainfall…should still see heavy rainfall, but likely not the sustained training that may happen tomorrow evening from College Station to Huntsville. There is certainly some potential in this forecast for things to change…the biggest being the southward movement of the front and where/when it stalls as that location will be “under the gun” for sustained cell training and highest rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals:
Even though we are within about 24 hours of the start of this event, there is still uncertainty on where the highest rains will fall. Will carry 1-3 inches across the entire region NW of US 59 and 1-2 inches SE of US 59 and go with 3-4 inches NW of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Could see isolated totals of 6-7 inches in that favored area across our NW counties…much of these higher totals will depend on where training cells develop on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Hydro:
This will be a fairly widespread rainfall event on top of nearly saturated soils at a time of year where run-off is typical maximized due to lack of vegetation cover. Appears rainfall totals will likely exceed flash flood guidance across the northern 1/3rd of our area and significant run-off will likely be generated into the Trinity, Navasota, and Brazos basins and possibly the upper San Jacinto Basin north of Conroe on the W Fork and near Cleveland on the E Fork. May get enough rainfall especially in the Trinity and Navasota basins for rises to flood stage and there is potential for flood gate operations at Limestone, Livingston, and Conroe.

As for the creeks and bayous across Harris County, heavy rainfall on Wednesday appears to be sporadic enough to result in rises, but likely not widespread flooding. Will not rule out some rises to near bankfull especially at the normal trouble spots (South Mayde Creek, upper Little Cypress Creek, upper Spring Creek, and on the San Jacinto Basin). Harris County is currently in the divided area between lower totals along the coast and higher totals inland…it could be a set up where NW Harris County could experience 1-3 inches of rainfall and SE Harris less than 1.5 inches. Will need to keep an eye for any sustained training trends on Wednesday into Wednesday night with the frontal boundary likely somewhere between US 59 and the coast as this could help focus more sustained rainfall especially with any disturbance riding NE out of MX.

5 Day Rainfall Totals:
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby jasons » Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:09 am

The map has shifted since yesterday. For me it went from the 1” band to 2.5”
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:13 am

jasons wrote:The map has shifted since yesterday. For me it went from the 1” band to 2.5”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_YlS3SLoz8
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:33 pm

Pw's for Today....Corpus..
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PWs for Houston Galveston February 20 18.PNG
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Active WX Pattern/Heavy Rainfall Possibl

Postby tireman4 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:20 pm

Meanwhile, an everchanging situation in San Angelo....
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