FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby tireman4 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:22 pm

Happy Weatherperson's Day to all of our pro mets ( Andrew, Srain, Wxman57, Blake, Belmer, Brooks, Mcheer and countless others I have missed) and amateurs alike. Thank you for all you do to make this board rock.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:15 pm

The afternoon Forecaster adjusted CPC Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures across the Central United States and above normal precipitation for most of our Region likely due to that noisy sub tropical jet overhead and a bit of troughiness near El Paso. Below are the Day 8+ Super Ensemble Analogs.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:58 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon Forecaster adjusted CPC Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures across the Central United States and above normal precipitation for most of our Region likely due to that noisy sub tropical jet overhead and a bit of troughiness near El Paso. Below are the Day 8+ Super Ensemble Analogs.



srain: Great summary. That's exactly what I'm seeing a deep trough intersecting with a noisy SJT for the next 2 weeks. Four Season in one Day (or week) kinda stuff.


If you don't like the weather, just wait a few hours!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:23 am

Fog is getting thick out there reducing visibility for the morning commute. Bush is down to a 1/4 of a mile, so allow a little extra time this morning. Light rain/drizzle will make for wet roads as well.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:18 am

The upcoming weekend is looking very wet across portions of SE, E Texas into Louisiana. Concern growing for the potential of heavy rainfall as Coastal low/trough organizes near Brownsville/Corpus Christi with a deep SW trough seen on all the Global Ensembles as well as a Baja low meandering across Mexico into Texas. Embedded disturbance riding the sub tropical jet suggest rainfall with possibly some heavy thunderstorms develop Friday and continue into Saturday. Rainfall could continue into Sunday before we finally see a brief break before another front approaches. Rollercoaster Pattern continues.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:32 am

Safe travels and take your time with the morning commute. A messy morning across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10AM this morning and some showers moving across the Houston-Galveston areas.

Rain sums up the weekend heavy rain potential quite well.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby redneckweather » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:26 am

Time to cut back plants and prune the crepe myrtles with no big freezes in sight. Signs of Spring will start to pop up in the next couple of weeks. Hold tight, Spring is just around the corner!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby snowman65 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:31 am

What happened to the arctic weather that was possible during the early to mid Feb time frame? I was looking like a pretty good setup. What changed to bring us all of this cool, rainy miserable weather?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby Cromagnum » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:41 am

I'm definitely going to be sad if it's already spring. Need to keep the heat away as long as possible.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Very Progressive Pattern/Roller Coaster

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:55 am

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Soggy weather pattern for the next several days.

Surface warm front along the coast this morning is creeping inland allowing 60 degree dewpoints to reach the coast. Warm and humid air mass over the cold nearshore waters is resulting in dense sea fog forming along the coast and spreading inland. Area radars show scattered showers in the developing warm air advection regime over SE TX and surface obs show the next cold front over OK moving toward N TX. Overall pattern today will be foggy with period of passing showers and maybe a thunderstorm as the coastal warm front moves inland and the surface cold front over the southern plains moves southward into the region tonight.

While SPC has outlooked the northern portions of the area for a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for hail, think this threat is low given the parameters in place. Rainfall amounts will average between .25 and 1.25 inches over the region with the greatest amounts likely focused over the northern and eastern portions of the region.

Cold front will slice through the region tonight with temperatures falling on Wednesday. Upstream air mass is fairly cold and expect temperatures to fall into the 40’s on Wednesday and hold throughout the day. 850mb front is slow to move southward and WSW flow aloft will result in overrunning behind the surface cold front. Elevated instability may result in a few thunderstorms in the post frontal air mass on Wednesday and some of these storms could produce some small hail.

Drier air mass moves into the region Wednesday night and Thursday and skies may briefly clear before the next storm system approaches this weekend.

Coastal trough will begin to develop early Friday and clouds will thicken and lower during the day on Friday with moisture surging back inland. Could even see scattered showers develop by mid to late afternoon on Friday as the air mass saturates. Next storm system will approach this weekend along with a fairly cold air mass from the north. Global models are not handling the timing of this next front very well with difference from late Saturday to late Sunday which will have large temperature impacts for the region. Forecasted upstream air mass behind this front looks very cold so there appears to be some major temperature forecast challenges for Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms look likely through much of the weekend with warm air advection in place over the area at least prior to the frontal passage. Appears rains will continue in the post frontal air mass into early next week. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures by Sunday evening especially up north from College Station to Huntsville if the colder and faster global models look to verify as the freezing line could dip toward those areas.
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