FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby sambucol » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:59 pm

Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:03 pm

sambucol wrote:Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes... ;)
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby harp » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:10 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
sambucol wrote:Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes... ;)


Srain, too early to tell if there will be a southern storm track?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:18 pm

harp wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
sambucol wrote:Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes... ;)


Srain, too early to tell if there will be a southern storm track?


Absolutely Harp. Let's give things a look as February begins to see if the sub tropical jet becomes active, disturbances crossing Texas/Louisiana and possibilities of a Coastal Low/trough. We have to get that cold air here first. There are what looks like 3 waves crossing the Pacific that ushers in at least 3 to 4 Arctic fronts with each one progressively stronger as we head into mid February.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:29 pm

The afternoon Updated Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests colder and wetter weather may be coming.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby harp » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:33 pm

Thank you very much for your response.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:47 pm

Wow, that’s not normal.

Image
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby harp » Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:41 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Wow, that’s not normal.

Image


Many of us have no idea what this means. Can you explain? Thanks.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:40 pm

harp wrote:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Wow, that’s not normal.

Image


Many of us have no idea what this means. Can you explain? Thanks.


This is a great article explaining the effects of the MJO on our weather. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... do-we-care

Basically, if you want to see cold this time of the year, phases 7,8,1,2 are great for us. I believe in february, Phase 3 is beneficial as well. That circle in the middle is the “circle of death” or ENSO background State. Given that we are in a La Niña, you would hate for Phases 4-6 to be strong and then crash into the circle of death as we approach our favored phases. The strong signal we are seeing here is something I certainly haven’t seen during Winter months.

That long range MJO forecast is very tasty if you want some cold air in Texas.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Will we have snow three months in a row?

Postby harp » Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:44 pm

Thank you.
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