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JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:49 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Tuesday Night...
Quiet and cool weather this weekend will gradually warm to the
upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday as high pressure slides east and
onshore flow returns. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to dip
below freezing across most of the inland areas, but a hard freeze
is not anticipated.

Rain chances increase Monday evening through Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through the area. The predominant precipitation type
is expected to be rain, however there is still a slight chance of
some wintry precipitation mixing in across the northern parts of
the area early Tuesday morning. At this point it's still a little
to early to nail down precipitation type, and for now all types
of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) are on
the table. It really comes down to how fast the cold air sweeps in
behind the front vs how quickly the post-frontal precip ends. The
ECMWF is faster with the front bringing it through more overnight
Monday night, vs the GFS/NAM solutions of a Tuesday morning
frontal passage. Previous ECMWF run showed faster drying behind
the front in addition to being quicker than the others, however,
the latest run is showing some lingering precipitation well after
the freezing line passes. Although confidence is slowly increasing
that frozen precipitation is possible, overall chances are still
fairly low. Right now, the best chance for frozen precipitation is
along and north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. If frozen
precip falls, light accumulations (<0.1 inch) will be possible.
With temperatures falling throughout the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, any wet surfaces remaining will likely freeze with
low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s Tuesday night. A Hard
Freeze Warning may be required for portions of the area.
11


...Wednesday through Saturday...
High pressure builds in Wednesday behind the cold front and will
quickly progress eastward across the Central Plains. Onshore flow
and moisture will return Thursday as the surface high moves over
the Tennessee Valley. An upper-level shortwave trough moves
through the area Thursday night with strong warm air advection and
lift, so precipitation is expected Thursday night through Friday.
The biggest issue is if the precipitation begins early enough on
Thursday to catch the below freezing temperatures, freezing rain
is possible along the northernmost counties. Confidence is
currently low enough that no fzra was included in the grids, but
it is something we will watch out for moving forward.
Behind the
shortwave, a gradual warming trend will continue through the
weekend before the next cold front passes on Sunday. 22

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby Heat Miser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:43 pm

Looks like Tues-day will be the best chance, unless we have something developing post-frontal which brings a little more moisture for a longer period of time. Something that brings in more moisture Tuesday afternoon into the night.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:20 pm

It looks like a more northern county even for mixed precip on Tuesday. Dry air will be the largest impediment.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby mcheer23 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:08 pm

NAM is more agressive as far as frozen precip.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:20 pm

mcheer23 wrote:NAM is more agressive as far as frozen precip.


For a model that typically over estimates QPF and has been extremely dry, it's a noticeable change.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby harp » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:41 pm

The NAM is the one model that nailed our snowfall here in Louisiana last month.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby stormlover » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:53 pm

Gfs is on board more now
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby harp » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:02 pm

stormlover wrote:Gfs is on board more now


Not for SE La.! LOL!
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby Andrew » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:32 pm

Interesting to note the delayed shortwave that could sweep through the region on Wednesday/Thursday bringing another chance for wintry precip. I definitely think the chances are there for more than one opportunity for wintry precip across the region.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Cold Weekend/Stronger Front Tuesday

Postby don » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:34 am

Euro is also wetter showing snow in Houston Tuesday night. It also still shows a ice storm on Thursday fwiw
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