JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Warming Trend Begins/Will It Last Long?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:52 pm

BlueJay wrote:
CrashTestDummy wrote:
BlueJay wrote:Will we be able to uncover our plants before May? :?


You still have plants worth covering?!? I think Tuesday got pretty much everything that wasn't inside, but I haven't checked our greenhouse and tool shed yet. The frigid weather even got a hummingbird. :cry:


Sorry to hear about the hummingbird!
I'm not convinced that everything is dead yet but the hibiscus (not totally freeze dried) and philodendron (not totally mush) are no longer lush. I'm going to hold out on removal for a while.

Note to self: Gardenias, Dianella, and Aspidistra were able to withstand 15F temperatures.


All of our shrubs survived. Can't plant tropicals and subtropicals up in CLL, anyway. Heck, the Na+ filled (and thus alkaline) tap water here will kills them. Planted Gardenias and azaleas last 1 month up here when we first moved to Texas 25 years ago. I learned a lot of bitter lawn and garden lessons quickly in this area of Texas!
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Warming Trend Begins/Will It Last Long?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:57 pm

CrashTestDummy wrote:
Katdaddy wrote:A burst of heavy rain at Mom’s today in Pearland. Its been awhile since I have seen puddles form in the old yard and begin to rise onto the patio which brought back memories as a little boy. As a little weather geek, I would judge each rain event on how far the water moved up the patio. Excitement would increase as the water moved up higher and higher on the patio. Half way up was amazing and to the top was unreal. I have seen the yard become ocean many times growing up. Vivid memories of the June 1976 rain event which dropped 7” of rain and brought water to the top of the patio and I will never forget Claudette 1979 which also brought water to the top of the patio and into the garage. Thankfully Mom’s house has not flooded yet over the years but came close with Claudette, Allison, and Harvey.


Hey, those puddles look familiar!! :lol: We get similar puddles during rain spells, and the 2-acre lake that's 3" deep around our house when we get a lot of rain. During Harvey, we were an island for almost a week.

Having to make some minor repairs out in the tool shed this afternoon, and the walk out there is an adventure of missing where the water is deepest, and where the pups have been. :shock:


Our old home in CLL used to pool rain. We were lower than other yards, and drainage in the backyard was towards the house!. Got crushed in the Oct 1994 flood! Put in a French drain on one side and eventually moved across town to higher ground sloping away from the house. Outcome was far better with Harvey - feel very fortunate.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Warming Trend Begins/Will It Last Long?

Postby BlueJay » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:01 pm

Just watched Blake's rocking weather report for this week on KHOU. He reported that we should have mostly a beautiful sunny week. Thanks for the good news Blake! I plan to enjoy the thaw while I can. 8-)
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Warming Trend Begins/Will It Last Long?

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:30 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Looks like we will have a marginal risk of a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms in the wee hour of tomorrow morning as the Pacific front advances across our Region there is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms NE of Metro Houston, but better dynamics will be well NE of our Region as a potent Winter Storm exits the 4 Corners into the Central Plains and on N and East.

Looking to the first of February, I continue to see growing trends via the overnight Ensemble schemes that continue to trend colder and toward an Upper Air Pattern capable of delivering much colder air in early to mid February at least. Perhaps someone will start a New Topic for February as we are rapidly heading toward the end of January.

01202018 814temp_new.gif

01202018 814prcp_new.gif

01202018 teleconnection 4indices.png

01212018 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


There were cold blasts in 1972, 1984, and 1989.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:26 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221008
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Front is in the process of moving thru the area. Lack of
instability and some capping has limited areal coverage and
intensity. Precipitation should be near or off the coast by
sunrise...taking the sea fog with it. Clearing skies and a much
drier airmass will filter in during the day allowing RH`s to dip
into the 25-30% range during the day with nw winds 10-20 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible.

Dry, seasonable weather will persist into the mid-late work week
time period with surface high pressure dominating area wx.
Moisture levels and rain chances will increase going on into the
weekend as onshore winds resume as the high moves off to the east.
The next western trof will advance into the Plains and send a
cold front and associated precip through the area sometime
Saturday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Sea fog/showers currently lingering over the area is expected to
move out by mid morning with the passage of the weak cold front.
Winds behind this front not terribly impressive per obs upstream
but with the continued CAA behind this boundary, we could see an
uptick with winds/seas over the offshore waters this afternoon.
An SCEC has been issued for the 20-60 nm coastal waters for this
timeframe.

As the associated surface high builds down into the region tonight
and then makes a slow sweep across the southern states, winds will
be shifting to the east by Tues and persisting through much of the
upcoming week. However, winds/seas across the offshore waters will
likely continue to remain elevated and Caution flag criteria could
persist through this week. SE winds expected to return to the area
late Thurs/Fri ahead of the next cold front that is still forecast
to move into the Gulf waters late Sat. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers still possible through the rest of this morning
with the passage of the cold front. Sea fog will also remain prob-
lematic at GLS through mid morning. However, we are and will keep
seeing improving conditions from the NW as the morning wears on.
VFR should prevail areawide by 18Z. No CIG/VIS issues for tonight
or tomorrow. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 37 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 40 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 47 64 46 59 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:51 pm

FDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1143 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry air in the wake of this morning`s cold front will keep
skies clear through the period. Current moderate northerlies to
begin to weaken later this afternoon as high pressure moves in
from the west. Weak northwest veering north breezes from tonight
through tomorrow afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

UPDATE...
Breezy and dry conditions are settling in across the region in
the wake of last night/this morning`s cold front, which morning
surface analysis shows has pushed off the Texas coast. Current
forecast is handling trends well, but did a minor update to
account for slightly drier conditions this afternoon based on
upstream dew points and anticipated afternoon mixing. Expect
elevated fire weather conditions across the area by early
afternoon as relative humidities fall into the 20-30 percent range
with conditions improving by this evening as winds decrease with
the arrival of surface ridging from West Texas. Otherwise, expect
high temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s under
sunny skies.

Huffman
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:41 pm

Wildfire Prevention. With the humidity really low and the winds gusting, please be aware...
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:58 am

We have a bit of scattered light front on the roof tops in NW Harris County this morning from that Pacific front yesterday morning. The Gulf moisture returns late week bringing some light amounts of precipitation along and ahead of another slightly colder front Saturday.
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01232018 5 Day QPF p120i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:32 am

Daily Report from HGX
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:47 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions will persist across the region through
Thursday with rain chances and periods of fog returning Friday and
Saturday ahead of a cold front Saturday night. Surface ridging
remains sprawled across the Southern Plains this afternoon and is
expected to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday before an
approaching shortwave trough near southern Arizona/New Mexico on
afternoon water vapor imagery kicks this low level ridging east.
This will keep rain chances nil across the region through Thursday
as Southeast Texas remains closed off from Gulf moisture, with
only passing high clouds drifting across the region as west to
southwest flow aloft allows upper level Pacific moisture to stream
overhead. Expect highs through Thursday in the low to mid 60s
with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to mid 40s along the
coast.

Onshore flow gradually resumes by Friday, strengthening during
the day and drawing Gulf moisture back into the region. Associated
warm air advection may produce an isolated shower or two Friday
morning with a developing low level jet over Central Texas
resulting in scattered showers west of Interstate 45 by late
Friday. A second trough swinging across the Southern Plains on
Saturday looks to send a cold front into the region by Saturday
night. Mid-level height falls ahead of this trough and steepening
lapse rates ahead of this feature may encourage an isolated
thunderstorm or two to also develop on Saturday along and ahead of
a prefrontal trough before the front arrives Saturday night.
Severe potential looks low, but relatively weak flow through 700
MB and precipitable water values in the 1.2-1.4 inch range may
mean a few slow-moving heavy downpours will be possible. Highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s ahead of the front on Saturday look to
moderate back down into the lower 60s on Sunday with dry and mild
conditions resuming by the beginning of the next work week.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure nestled into southeastern Texas has allowed winds
to subside. The forecast is for north to northeast breezes to
occur across the local bay and nearshore waters through early
Thursday. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
southern United States and the Carribean will be tight enough to
produce and maintain more moderate offshore northeasterlies into
late week. Onshore winds by Thursday will pull in a warmer and
more humid air across cooler shelf waters. This will increase the
probabilities of Friday and Saturday sea fog. Passing weak
disturbances Friday and Saturday will increase rain chances. A
cold frontal passage early Sunday will strengthen Sunday`s
offshore winds. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 63 38 64 47 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 38 63 39 63 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 44 58 46 58 53 / 0 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...31
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