JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:25 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
517 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Quite a bit of clouds/moisture streaming across the coastal waters
overnight/so far this morning from the SW. This pattern would seem
to suggest that the upper trof out west (near the California Baja)
has begun to develop/move east. But in the meantime...the mild/dry
weather will continue across SE TX today/tomorrow as the northeast
to east low-level winds persist.

While onshore winds are still set to return late Thurs, the return
of isolated/scattered showers (and fog) may not be until Fri night
to early Sat morning. Models are still indicating the passage of a
shortwave just north of the area late Thurs...but another disturb-
ance moving into the area (from the lower TX coast) late Fri night
will likely be the main impetus for precipitation. Models still on
track for the passage of a cold front late in the day Sat but seem
to be backing off a bit with respect to CAA. At any rate, however,
the building upper ridge in the wake of the front on Sun will help
to clear things out quickly. Though it may be a bit soon, extended
guidance is hinting at the return of much colder temps/winter next
next weekend. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Slightly stronger winds over the nearshore waters and even stronger
over the far coastal waters support a SCEC for the 20-60nm waters
today through tonight. High pressure over north-central Texas early
this morning will be sliding slowly southeastward maintaining the
tighter temperature/pressure gradient over the coastal waters. As it
moves east tonight and Thursday pressures along the Lower TX coast
should begin to fall and winds become more easterly. Initially dry
recirculated continental air will be the norm but by late Friday
modified air and even perhaps some air from the deep southern Gulf
will flow into the area Saturday morning ahead of the cold front.
This increasing moisture late Friday through Saturday could lead to
an increased chance of sea fog. A cold front swings through the
Upper Texas Coastal Waters Sunday night and boost of winds to SCEC
and possibly SCA a reasonable bet.
45
&&

FIRE...
Continued dry conditions today as high pressure dominates.
Winds even lighter today than yesterday with high pressure settling
in over NETX/ETX this afternoon (becoming more variable as well).
Moderate recovery again tonight though a little better than this
mornings. Still dry Thursday but with more consistent east to
southeast winds though the gradient is still loose. Friday moisture
levels increase noticeably but relatively light SE winds continue.
Pacific cold front Saturday night will bring in another round of dry
air with limited cooling. Elevated fire weather conditions possible
Sunday.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Light winds.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 38 63 49 66 / 0 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 63 38 63 49 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 61 47 61 54 65 / 0 0 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:29 am

Wet Weather Returns...
Attachments
Friday Saturday Wet Weather Returns 1 24 18.PNG
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:33 pm

Mild sunny days, cool to chilly nights. No A/C running. No sprinklers running. Life is good.

The models are running pretty seasonable...except for this Euro thing. :lol:

Really cold stuff continues lurking in Canada.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:50 am

Rather unexpectedly chilly across the Northern areas of Metro Houston to start the day. Temperatures across Montgomery, Liberty, NW and Northern Harris Counties have drop to just below or near freezing at 4:00 AM.

Calm winds and low dew points with clear skies allowed for ideal radiational cooling.

Winds should slowly swing around to the E today and then SE by tonight as a disturbance crosses Mexico and a surface low develops along the Lower Texas Coast tomorrow. With a mostly West to East zonal flow, the highest rain chances look to remain offshore where thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday with decreasing amounts inland likely less than a tenth of an inch. Another Pacific front arrives Saturday night/Sunday morning with little fanfare as the Gulf Low will be well East of us, S of the SE Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Seasonal weather should be the theme as we end the month of January. It appears January will end drier and colder than normal, climatology wise. And we had a minor and rather impressive Wintry Weather events.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby jasons » Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:26 am

Not happy this morning. It wasn’t supposed to freeze at my house and it did, with nothing protected. This is not the first time the NWS has busted on me. Grrrrrr.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:24 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
One more fairly quiet/dry day today as the weather pattern over SE
TX continues to evolve. With the onshore winds developing/strength-
ening and high clouds begin moving in from the W/SW, highs for the
day will climb into the mid/upper 60s. Rain chance should hold off
until tonight as the combination of increasing low-level moisture/
shortwave approaching from the west helps to produce some isolated
showers...mainly over the western half of the CWA.

As this onshore flow persists into Fri, PWs across the region will
be climbing into the 1 to 1.3 inch range (from north to south) and
then from 1.1 to 1.6 inches by Fri night. This seems to be setting
the stage for the arrival/passage of another disturbance (from the
SW) Fri night/Sat morning. Progged instabilites not too impressive
for this time, but cannot rule out an isolated TSRA or two as this
system moves across the area. Rain chances will remain high on Sat
with the passage of the cold front as well. An important note with
the very high PWS forecasts over our coastal counties...the 1.5 to
1.6 inch values are on the highest end of the climatological norms
for PWs for this time of year. As such, locally heavy rains remain
a possbility Fri night and Sat for the southern half of the CWA.

The building upper ridge in the wake of the front (and its associ-
ated upper trof) should help to clear things out quickly Sat night
into Sun morning. A reinforcing front on Mon will keep the weather
over SE TX dry/quiet through the first part of next week. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft exercise caution still in effect for the 20-60nm waters
this morning for the slightly stronger winds there but these should
gradually diminish by late morning so plan to end in with the mid
morning update. High pressure over E TX will weaken and slide east
today with pressures falling on the Lower and Coastal Bend which
should turn winds easterly. Strong winds over the Caribbean will tap
into the tropical moisture and eventually push it into the Southern
Gulf Saturday. Closer to the area the moisture will be on the
increase the next few days and Friday night/Saturday morning the sea
fog threat should return with lower 60 dewpoints moving slowly over
the much cooler shelf waters. Cold front moving toward SETX should
help with the development of showers and even a few thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday as PW surges. The prefrontal trough pushes into
the coastal waters Saturday afternoon and the Pacific front Saturday
evening or early Sunday morning. This should end the rain chances
and usher in SCA conditions with the offshore flow.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a little cirrus this morning. Mid level 8000-12000 ft
moistens up tonight and should overspread the region with a fairly
thick mid level deck. Lower clouds possibly MVFR over western
counties this evening with a combination of upslope and continued
moistening. After Friday 06-09z window expect some MVFR CIGS to
develop in and around the main hubs. Outlook...Friday night through
Saturday morning expect a round of IFR becoming VLIFR improving mid
to late Saturday morning. GLS/LBX/HOU may have a round of active
weather with showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning.
45

&&

.FIRE...
Dry air still blankets the region but with easterly winds developing
the southern areas should see an increase in RH over yesterday but
the northern areas will still be plenty dry with RH values 20-28
percent. After all the dry conditions fuels may be very available.
Winds today will be a little stronger today 4-8 mph across the
northern areas. Stronger near the coast today but again with a
little higher RH.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...
Jan 25th of 2012 - A widespread severe weather outbreak occurred
across SETX. 6 Tornadoes including an EF1 in Deanville in Burleson
county. Flooding was also reported from Houston to Rosenberg.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 48 67 56 69 / 10 10 30 50 30
Houston (IAH) 65 47 67 56 67 / 10 10 20 60 50
Galveston (GLS) 62 52 65 57 64 / 10 10 20 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby mckinne63 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:57 pm

jasons wrote:Not happy this morning. It wasn’t supposed to freeze at my house and it did, with nothing protected.
I was quite surprised to see the frost on my car this morning. I didn't notice at first, I put my cup of soy milk on the top as I always to do to pick up the newspaper and put my computer bag in the car. Surprise! Cup started sliding off. I don't think we were quite freezing, but was cold enough to make everything quite frosty.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:38 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Rather unexpectedly chilly across the Northern areas of Metro Houston to start the day. Temperatures across Montgomery, Liberty, NW and Northern Harris Counties have drop to just below or near freezing at 4:00 AM.

Calm winds and low dew points with clear skies allowed for ideal radiational cooling.

Winds should slowly swing around to the E today and then SE by tonight as a disturbance crosses Mexico and a surface low develops along the Lower Texas Coast tomorrow. With a mostly West to East zonal flow, the highest rain chances look to remain offshore where thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday with decreasing amounts inland likely less than a tenth of an inch. Another Pacific front arrives Saturday night/Sunday morning with little fanfare as the Gulf Low will be well East of us, S of the SE Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Seasonal weather should be the theme as we end the month of January. It appears January will end drier and colder than normal, climatology wise. And we had a minor and rather impressive Wintry Weather events.


Low dew points and light winds under clear skies and NEW flow aloft = frosty conditions this time of year. Winds are flipping around now from the south. No chance of a freeze tonight.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:31 am

Increasing clouds today will be followed by increasing rain chances tonight and into Saturday. Not the best weather weekend however temps will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:06 am

64
FXUS64 KHGX 261148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018

.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR to VFR ceilings will persist through much of the
day with east to southeast winds 10 knots or less. Light rain
early this morning will taper off by midday as an associated
disturbance moves east of the TAF sites. Persistent onshore flow
will result in the threat of sea fog near Galveston after 22Z with
light overnight winds and increasing moisture beneath a nocturnal
inversion allowing fog to develop farther inland after 03-06Z.
VFR/MVFR ceilings will also gradually lower to IFR after 03Z as
moisture returns. Another disturbance lifting up the coast
tonight will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development beginning around 03-06Z with best coverage over the
marine areas. A VCTS mention may be needed for LBX or GLS in later
packages but confidence was not high enough to include at this
time. A cold front is expected to move across the region beyond
the end of the current TAF period.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging lingers over SETX this morning with coastal troughing
along the mid and lower coast. Moisture on the increase with the
easterly flow and dewpoints over the Gulf have recovered 10
degrees and 10-20 degrees over the southern counties. Mid and
upper level clouds expanding over the region from the southwest
and bringing a few sprinkles with them. Today should be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
A few light sprinkles or showers possible mainly west and south
today. Patchy sea fog possible late this afternoon. Overnight
tonight expect continued moistening with increasing chances for
sea fog over the marine waters and expanding inland. Patchy fog
inland after midnight. Rain chances ramp up quickly overnight as
subtropical jet disturbance moves into and through the area.
Soundings become saturated but with very little instability. Deep
convection will probably be confined to areas to the south of the
Highway 59 corridor and primarily focused over the coastal waters.
As the s/w departs the eastern areas a lull will probably develop
Saturday morning with the cold front entering the picture and
pushing through to the coast Saturday mid to late afternoon. Rain
chances fall from northwest to southeast with the passage of the
front. Rain chances come to an end over SETX by sunrise Sunday.
Ridging keeps it dry but still fairly warm Sunday followed by a
push of cooler and drier air Monday down through the region. Our
coldest morning should be Tuesday morning followed by a warm up
and warm front Wednesday. A cold front slides through early Friday
per the ECMWF with a stronger front portrayed by the GFS. For now
will follow the ECMWF in the extended.
45

MARINE...
A weak disturbance lifting up the Upper Texas coast early this
morning will produce isolated showers across the marine areas this
morning. Periods of sea fog will be possible as early as late
afternoon as east to southeast winds push warm, moist air across the
cooler shelf waters. A secondary disturbance lifting up the coast
tonight will result in scattered to numerous showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms developing by Saturday morning and the
possible formation of a weak coastal trough. This feature may result
in winds backing enough across the nearshore areas to push any sea
fog that develops away from the coast and while dense fog will be
possible from late this afternoon through Saturday, rain and backed
winds may result in small windows of occurrence as opposed to a
prolonged period. The sea fog threat looks to definitively end by
Saturday evening/night as a cold front clears the Gulf waters.
Increasing offshore flow behind this front may result in caution or
advisory flags through late Monday or early Tuesday. Winds become
onshore by the middle of the upcoming week as surface ridging
slides east of the northwest Gulf.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 56 69 52 66 / 20 40 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 66 56 68 55 65 / 20 60 50 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 61 54 61 52 61 / 20 70 70 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
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