JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby jasons » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:49 am

Even in August, folks are outside. Maybe swimming or at the beach, but it sure beats being locked-up indoors. Anyway, looks like another freeze and I need to bring the plants in again. Dread. At least the days are getting longer.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby CrashTestDummy » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:05 am

Heat Miser wrote:
ticka1 wrote:love we are having a winter. Give us 10 more weeks and yall will get your dreadful humidity and heat back.

ticka, we live in a sub-tropical climate. There's a reason we have warm to hot weather most of the time. Having spent 47 of my 50 years of life here, this is the weather I'm acclimated to. Cold or below normal temps are something I'll never get acclimated to. If I wanted cold, snowy, cloudy weather, or even weather that's bitterly cold when the sun's out, I'd move a lot further north of the Houston metro area.


Heh, indeed! As an Air Force Brat, I've lived all over the US. At the ripe old age of nine, standing in the gray slush that covered the driveway, looking out over the trampled snow in the front yard in Fairborn, Ohio, I remember making up my mind that I'd NEVER live in such a place on purpose. The first snow is kind of nice, the fall foliage is also kind of nice. Getting to stay outside during the summer until after 9 p.m., about the time the sun went down was also nice. The endless gray winter days was not.

I've kept that promise to myself! :lol:

Looks like we'll need to batten down the hatches this afternoon, we have a Big Wind coming!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby don » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:11 am

Things may get interesting next Tuesday as we get another reinforcing shot of cold air with a disturbance moving through the area.The 0z Euro shows a wintry mix across central and Southeast Texas as far south as the Houston area the GFS has been hinting at this also the last few runs fwiw.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:07 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings have persisted through the overnight hours with some north-
south oriented light rain areas moving eastward across the area. Could
see some lower MVFR decks and some showers and thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of the strong cold front that will be moving through
the area today. Light winds this morning will increase and shift from
the south to west ahead of the front then northwest and gusty behind
the front. Gusty northwest to north winds will persist tonight through
tomorrow morning as skies begin to clear out and the storm system moves
off to the east. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The long-advertised cold frontal passage is now near, and
conditions behind the front are looking quite windy through
tonight. The winds along with incoming cold air will cause areas
far to the north of Houston to flirt with wind chill advisory
thresholds for the next night or two. Saturday night looks to be
the coldest night of all, with the freezing line reaching or
nearly reaching the coast. Monday will bring a brief warmup before
another cold front chops temperatures back down into the mid-week.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Observations show that isolated patches of fog have developed
around the area, mainly to the north and west of Houston.
Otherwise, it seems low to mid clouds are dominating the area.
Some fog and/or drizzle may continue to show up here and there
until morning, but the overcast skies will probably be dominant.

Look for a pre-frontal trough to move into the area this morning,
kicking up the potential for showers across the area. The front
itself looks a bit slower, so the forecast now allows the vast
majority of the area to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Localized areas at the coast may even see the middle 70s on the
pre-frontal southwest winds. Showers will become more numerous
during the day, and as the front itself drives into the area this
afternoon, we should see isolated to scattered thunderstorms erupt
as well along the front. The best chance for thunder will be
rough south/east of I-10 and US-59. Because of the strong winds
aloft involved with this frontal passage, there may be a low
chance for a strong wind gust or briefly heavy rain, but a more
serious severe weather threat is not anticipated.

Look for strong and gusty northwest winds to rapidly develop
across the area this afternoon, starting in the west and spreading
eastward across the area as the front blows through. Winds inland
should peak this evening with sustained winds in the vicinity of
25 mph, and gusts up to 35 or 40 mph. With winds not far above the
surface of 45 to 60 mph, some even stronger gusts - perhaps up to
50 mph - may be possible, if unlikely. As we go deeper into the
night, winds inland should begin to slowly subside, with an
initial expiration time for the wind advisory for most being 3 AM.
Higher winds should linger into Friday at the coast.

Of course, the front will also bring in some strong cold air
advection, and clearing skies towards morning will not help.
Though temperatures don`t look quite as cold as the last monster
front, the strong winds will drive areas well north of Houston to
uncomfortably close to wind chill advisory thresholds.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Moderate north winds will continue Friday across much of the area,
while advisory level winds look to continue through at least mid-
day at the coast. However, by the late night hours Friday, winds
should become light to moderate and veer to northeasterly.
Temperatures will continue to drop underneath clear skies, and so
despite the lighter winds, areas in the north again look to reach
levels above, but unhappily close to the wind chill advisory
level. Meanwhile, the freezing line will continue to drop south
towards the coast.

Saturday, like Friday looks to feature sunny skies, but only see
temperatures rise to around or just above 50 degrees. This will
help set up Saturday to be the coldest night of this cold stretch.
Portions of Houston and Trinity counties may flirt with hard
freeze criteria this night, but fortunately the coldest air in
this outbreak will be shunted to our east, preventing the big cold
outbreak from our last monster front. This is the night most
likely to see freezing temperatures even in the warmer urban core
of Houston and elsewhere see the freezing line make its deepest
penetration into the coastal counties.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Fortunately, by Sunday evening, winds will become easterly or even
southeasterly, and arresting the night over night fall in
temperatures. While these winds will begin to institute a warmup
for the area, it will be brief and incomplete. As high pressure
pushes from the northern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley,
another cold front looks to move through the area. Model guidance
still shows some differences in precise timing, but confidence in
increasing for a frontal passage late Monday night or Tuesday.
This will also bring an increased potential for showers, but the
short period of moisture return may hamper just how much rain
we`ll see with this front. After that, look for another cool
couple of days before we start to see another warmup later in the
week.

MARINE...

PLEASE DO NOT GO BOATING! Winds and seas remain elevated across
portions of our offshore waters early this morning, but they
should come down for a short period this morning. At the same
time, anticipate our nearshore water/Bay winds and seas to pick
up today ahead of the strong cold front that will move across
the area this afternoon into this evening. As a precaution to
the upcoming dangerous boating environment and even though they
might not reach caution levels, will just go ahead and carry
caution flags for all of our waters for today (south winds
becoming west and increasing) leading up to the Gale Warning
that will be in effect this evening through Friday morning
(northwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts possibly reaching gale
force in the Bays and 25-40 kts with gusts possibly reaching
up to 45 kts across the 00-60 nm waters). Bay waters will
become rough, and seas will range from 6 to 9 feet nearshore
(occasionally up to 11 feet) and 11 to 15 feet offshore
(occasionally up to 17 TO 19 feet). PLEASE DO NOT GO BOATING!
A Low Level Water Advisory will be needed tonight for Galveston
Bay with water levels possibly falling to 1.5-2.5 feet below
normal. Gradually decreasing offshore winds and lowering seas are
expected over the weekend, but caution flags and advisories might
still be needed for portions of the marine zones through Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night. Moderate east to southeast winds
should return to the area at the start of next week. Any finally,
PLEASE DO NOT GO BOATING! 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 30 50 29 49 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 33 51 32 52 / 70 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 37 50 38 51 / 70 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Friday for
the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...Houston...
Liberty...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday for
the following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
Jackson...Matagorda.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby davidiowx » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:02 am

^^ Think it is safe to say nobody should be going out on the boat today lol!
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:38 am

davidiowx wrote:^^ Think it is safe to say nobody should be going out on the boat today lol!


Yep, I think they are trying to get that point across....LOL
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby jasons » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:26 pm

One of my old favorites, once sent to me by a friend who moved to Omaha (it's fiction but funny). This would be me:

Diary of a Snow Shoveler

December 9: We woke to a beautiful blanket of crystal white snow covering every inch of the landscape. What a fantastic sight! Can there be a more lovely place in the whole world? Moving here was the best idea I've ever had. I shoveled snow for the first time in years and felt like a boy again. I did both our driveway and the sidewalks. This afternoon the snowplow came along and covered up the sidewalks and closed in the driveway, so I got to shovel again! What a perfect life.

December 12: The sun has melted all our lovely snow. Such a disappointment. My neighbor tells me not to worry, we'll definitely have a white Christmas. No snow on Christmas would be awful! Bob says we'll have so much snow by the end of winter, that I'll never want to see snow again. l don't think that's possible. Bob is such a nice man - I'm glad he's our neighbor.

December 14: Snow, lovely snow! 8" last night. The temperature dropped to -20. The cold makes everything sparkle so. The wind took my breath away, but I warmed up by shoveling the driveway and sidewalks. This is the life! The snowplow came back this afternoon and buried everything again. l didn't realize I would have to do quite this much shoveling, but I'll certainly get back in shape this way. I wish l wouldn't huff and puff so.

December 15: 20 inches forecast. Sold my van and bought a 4x4 Blazer. Bought snow tires for the wife's car and 2 extra shovels. Stocked the freezer. The wife wants a wood stove in case the electricity goes out. I think that's silly. We aren't in Alaska, after all.

December 16: Ice storm this morning. Fell on my butt on the ice in the driveway putting down salt. Hurt like hell. The wife laughed for an hour, which I think was very cruel.

December 17: Still way below freezing. Roads are too icy to go anywhere. Electricity was off for 5 hours. I had to pile the blankets on to stay warm. Nothing to do but stare at the wife and try not to irritate her. Guess I should've bought a wood stove, but won't admit it to her. God I hate it when she's right. I can't believe I'm freezing to death in my own living room.

December 20: Electricity's back on, but had another 14" of stupid snow last night. More shoveling. Took all day. That stupid snowplow came by twice. Tried to find a neighbor kid to shovel, but they said they're too busy playing hockey. I think they're lying. Called the only hardware store around to see about buying a snow blower and they're out. Might have another shipment in March. I think they're lying. Bob says I have to shovel or the city will have it done and bill me. I think he's lying.

December 22: Bob was right about a white Christmas because 13 more inches of the white stuff fell today, and it's so cold it probably won't melt till August. Took me 45 minutes to get all dressed up to go out to shovel and then I had to use the restroom. By the time I got undressed, went and dressed again. I was too tired to shovel. Tried to hire Bob who has a plow on his truck for the rest of the winter; but he says he's too busy. I think the jerk is lying.

December 23: Only 2" of snow today. And it warmed up to 0. The wife wanted me to decorate the front of the house this morning. What is she, nuts? Why didn't she tell me to do that a month ago? She says she did, but I think she's lying.

December 24: 6" today. Snow packed so hard by snowplow, l broke the shovel. Thought I was having a heart attack. If I ever catch the jerk who drives that snowplow, I'll drag him through the snow by his hair. I know he hides around the corner and waits for me to finish shoveling and then he comes down the street at about 100 miles an hour and throws snow all over where I've just been! Tonight the wife wanted me to sing Christmas carols with her and open our presents, but I was busy watching for that stupid snowplow.

December 25: Merry Christmas. 20 more inches of the !=3D@x@!x!x1 slop tonight. Snowed in. The idea of shoveling makes my blood boil. God I hate the snow! Then the snowplow driver came by asking for a donation and I hit him over the head with my shovel. The wife says I have a bad attitude. I think she's an idiot. If I have to watch "It's a Wonderful Life" one more time, I'm going to kill her.

December 26: Still snowed in. Why the hell did I ever move here? It was all HER idea. She's really getting on my nerves.

December 27: Temperature dropped to -30 and the pipes froze.

December 28: Warmed up to above -50. Still snowed in. THAT WOMAN is driving me crazy!!!!!

December 29: 10 more inches. Bob says I have to shovel the roof or it could cave in. That's the silliest thing I ever heard. How dumb does he think I am?

December 30: Roof caved in. The snow plow driver is suing me for a million dollars. The wife went home to her mother. 9" predicted.

December 31: Set fire to what's left of the house. No more shoveling.

January 8: I feel so good. I just love those little white pills they keep giving me. Why am I tied to the bed?
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby BlueJay » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:26 pm

We've got a nice thunderstorm going on up here. I guess the front is moving in.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:31 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111804
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.AVIATION...
A strong cold front is continuing to push across SE TX, with
showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the boundary. The main line
of precipitation is currently draped just south of CLL, and will
move from northwest to southeast across all TAF sites. Both UTS
and CXO are currently experiencing showers and thunderstorms,
which should continue for the next few hours eventually
transitioning to just showers by late this afternoon. The metro
TAF sites such as IAH, HOU, SGR and LBX along the coast, should be
impacted by these showers and thunderstorms in the next hour or
two. GLS will be the last terminal to be impacted by this
boundary, but should begin to see showers move into the vicinity
shortly, as a few have developed out ahead of this main line.
This precipitation will lower ceilings and visibilities as the
system passes. Expecting conditions to improve shortly before
sunset as the main boundary pushes off the coast. Some lingering
ceilings will be possible, but should scatter out early Friday.

Additionally, strong northwesterly winds will become quite gusty
behind the front. Wind speeds will pick up quickly in the early
evening hours, with sustained wind speed potentially ranging
between 20-25 kts and occasionally gusting between 30-35 kts.
Wind speeds will be towards the higher end of this range closer to
the coast, impacting LBX and GLS. Expecting wind speeds to be the
strongest during the early evening to overnight hours. VFR
conditions and clearing skies should prevail, and wind speeds
should begin to lower early Friday morning.
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Re: JANUARY 2018 - Chilly Weather Returns Late Week

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:34 pm

Front as of 1:34 pm
Attachments
Front with Weatherstations on WeatherUnderground 1 11 18.PNG
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