JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:07 am

Record Breaking January 2018
Attachments
Record Breaking January 2018.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1848
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby djmike » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:31 pm

NOT how we wanted to spend our last few days of Jan. FLOODED!!! We received over 10" of rain lastnight here in the Beaumont area. Many homes/cars are flooded out again since Harvey! The city and area has basically shutdown AGAIN today! If you area in the area, please stay off the roads or drive with caution. IH-10 in a few places are closed down because of flooding crossing the freeway in Low lying areas. As of right now, you can not drive straight thru to lA.
djmike
 
Posts: 601
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby unome » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:54 pm

djmike wrote:NOT how we wanted to spend our last few days of Jan. FLOODED!!! We received over 10" of rain lastnight here in the Beaumont area. Many homes/cars are flooded out again since Harvey! The city and area has basically shutdown AGAIN today! If you area in the area, please stay off the roads or drive with caution. IH-10 in a few places are closed down because of flooding crossing the freeway in Low lying areas. As of right now, you can not drive straight thru to lA.


not fun :cry: hope everyone is safe

https://twitter.com/iembot_lch

http://kfdm.com/news/local/flash-flood- ... son-county
unome
 
Posts: 2338
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 7:11 pm
Location: Cypress

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:11 am

7 Day Outlook
Attachments
7 Day Outlook January 1 29 to 2 4.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1848
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:34 am

Not much to say about the SE TX weather which will be a repeat of yesterday. After another chilly morning with temps in the 30s and 40s; expect lots of sun and highs in the 60s. Rain chances begin to increase Thursday and remain through the weekend.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1799
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:18 am
Location: League City, Tx

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:21 am

297
FXUS64 KHGX 301604
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows some high clouds but
other than that, severe clear conditions persisted across the
area. Temperatures have increased into the mid/upper 40s with a
few spots near 50 along the coast. Overall the forecast looks on
track with these trends. East flow today should keep temperaturs
down a bit compared to yesterday. The 12Z 850mb temps at LCH and
CRP are about a degree lower than at 00Z. Since boundary layer
flow is weak, there is not going to be as much mixing. Still what
mixing does occur will allow for dry conditions this afternoon and
relative humidity back down under 30 percent. Rest of the
forecast looks on track at this time so any other changes will be
made for the afternoon forecast.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1848
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:30 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the first half of the day. NAM, HRRR
and ECMWF show some potential for MVFR ceilings developing in the
afternoon over mainly the southern TAF sites. Clouds are still
pretty far south this morning so confidence is low that MVFR cigs
will return so quickly but will watch trends. Differential heating
should be enough to generate a weak sea breeze this afternoon.
A low level jet over central Texas will clip northern TAF sites
and stronger winds/wind gusts are expected at KCLL and KUTS today.
IFR/MVFR conditions expected late tonight with both low ceilings
and fog possible. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies, save for some passing cirrus, have allowed
for 3 AM temperatures to fall into the low 30s to low 40s inland
with temperatures near 50 along the coast. GOES-East nighttime
microphysics imagery does show fog beginning to spread across
portions of Central and South Central Texas and given some meager
moisture return into the extreme western counties and have added
a mention of patchy fog for areas west of a College Station to
Wharton to Palacios line. Increasing southerly winds in response
to a surface low near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles this morning
and onset of daytime heating will result in fog dissipating by
9-10 AM. Continued low level moisture return today should result
in a scattered cumulus field developing beneath the cirrus
today with high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Another
round of patchy radiational fog will be possible again tonight as
overnight lows fall into the 50s.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a compact low near
Saskatchewan translating to the east around a larger upper low
over the Hudson Bay. As the Saskatchewan low rotates around the
Hudson Bay low tonight and Thursday, it will send a cold front
into Southeast Texas sometime Thursday afternoon or evening.
Veering winds and warm air advection ahead of the front in
response to an associated prefrontal trough will encourage high
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s tomorrow. With water
temperatures along the coast and around Galveston Bay roughly in
the 53-56 degree range, there will be more than enough of a
thermal contrast along the coast to generate a sea breeze. With
weak convergence along the prefrontal trough and the potential for
a sea breeze, expect isolated showers to develop during the day
Thursday generally east of a Palacios to Crockett line. Isolated
to scattered showers will remain possible Thursday night as the
cold front overtakes the prefrontal trough, clearing the Upper
Texas coast around sunrise Friday.

Generally dry conditions are expected on Friday with highs a good
15 degrees cooler than Thursday`s in the mid 50s to near 60. The
cold front doesn`t appear to make it too far into the Gulf on
Friday and begins to lift north as a warm front on Saturday.
Increasing isentropic lift on the 290K surface early Saturday
morning ahead of the front may result in a few light showers
developing across the region, with the arrival of a shortwave
trough and the warm front during the day Saturday increasing
shower coverage along the coast and east of Interstate 45.
Forecast precipitable water values along the coast on Saturday
climb into the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range and still have concerns that
at least a few heavy downpours will be possible, especially if
anything can focus along the warm front. This all depends on how
quickly the warm front lifts inland, but it is worth noting that
the 00Z CIPS analog guidance does indicate at least low
probabilities for isolated 2 inch or greater rain amounts to
materialize along the coast.

After the lead shortwave shifts east Saturday night, taking the
first round of rain with it, a second trough swinging across the
eastern United States will send another cold front across the
region on Sunday. Medium range guidance continues to differ on the
strength and the timing of this front. The timing of the front
will mainly affect how early rain chances will end on Sunday as
isolated showers will remain possible along the front as it moves
into the Gulf and the strength will affect how cold it gets
behind the front as well as how efficiently moisture is scoured
out. Have opted to side with a blend of medium range guidance for
the Sunday and Monday portion of the forecast due to these
persistent inconsistencies. For now, advertising high temperatures
moderating into the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to near 50
behind the front with isolated showers returning to the forecast
as onshore flow resumes at the beginning of next week.

Huffman

MARINE...
Light southeast winds this morning will increase during the day
as low pressure over the Texas panhandle deepens and slowly moves
east. Brief SCEC conditions will be possible over the offshore
waters tonight. There could be a brief round of sea fog Thursday
evening as dew pts climb into the upper 50`s. Surface winds will
be S-SE and this trajectory is not favorable for sea fog
development. However, SREF is hinting at some potential for fog
development. A cold front will cross the coast late Thursday night
and a Small Craft Advisory will be required in the wake of the
front for moderate to strong NE winds and elevated seas. Winds
quickly veer onshore by early Saturday as a warm front approaches
the coast. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 52 75 47 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 69 55 75 53 59 / 0 10 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 67 58 71 54 59 / 0 10 20 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1848
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:18 pm

What an absolutely gorgeous day out there. Temperatures in the low 70's and no humidity. Doesn't get any better and I can't think of a more fitting way to wrap up January after the weather we've experienced the last 30 days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17647
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby jasons » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:29 pm

srainhoutx wrote:What an absolutely gorgeous day out there. Temperatures in the low 70's and no humidity. Doesn't get any better and I can't think of a more fitting way to wrap up January after the weather we've experienced the last 30 days.


Was just about to post the same. Taking a short break and going for a stroll along the Waterway. I can’t remember the last time I was able to - probably before the holiday break. Lots of people out today.
Last Measurable Rainfall: August 16
jasons
 
Posts: 1973
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks

Re: JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

Postby BlueJay » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:15 pm

The winter of January 2018 turned out to be a real show in the weather department. With ice and snow, 15F temperatures, damaging winds and flooding for some-this month will certainly be remembered.

I did enjoy today's beautiful sunny skies and warm temperature and am looking forward to more of these types of weather days!
BlueJay
 
Posts: 729
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas

Previous

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest