December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby hriverajr » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:39 am

Transient... and east based
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:13 pm

hriverajr wrote:Transient... and east based


GFS - Yes

GEFS Ensemble - Shows prolonged and more widespread cold. No hard freeze with either model. We'll see.

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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:39 pm

Tornado Warning
TXC157-201-032200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0206.171203T2132Z-171203T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 332 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Richmond, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Sugar Land, northern Rosenberg, Richmond, Pecan Grove,
southwestern Eldridge / West Oaks, Cumings, New Territory, Cinco
Ranch and Greatwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:22 pm

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving through E Ft Bend, Harris and Brazoria Counties. This line of storm will be approaching Galveston County shortly.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

TXZ213-227-237-238-032345-
Brazoria TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
459 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 458 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Braeswood to Wild Peach Village. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.
Rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour have been observed with
this line of storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Pearland, southeastern Sugar Land, Missouri
City, western Friendswood, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Stafford,
South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Clute, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, West Columbia, Sweeny
and Bunker Hill Village.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:54 pm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

TXZ213-237-238-040030-
Brazoria TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
548 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 548 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alvin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Alvin, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe,
Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock, Manvel, Kemah, Clear Lake, South Belt /
Ellington, Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village and El Lago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Rip76 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:31 pm

That was some brutal rain here in The Pearland area.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby CrashTestDummy » Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:36 pm

Wow! It's been a while since we had a storm like that!! Three power outages in the span of about 15 minutes. Things have moved out, and cooled down. 66 deg. F here in Brazoria Co. with a northwest wind at about 7 MPH.

The pups are telling me it's wet outside, no way they're going out now!! :lol:
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:34 pm

Still a battle between GFS and Euro in the mid and long term. GFS is seasonal and Euro ensembles spell cooler than normal
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:24 am

Some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today with warm temps in the upper 70s. Get ready for a change to colder weather as the front move across SE TX tomorrow afternoon along with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Lows dropping into the 40s Tuesday night and highs Wednesday in the low 50s.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:36 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday…period of below normal temperatures.

Short wave responsible for the active weather on Sunday afternoon has exited to the east while another wave is currently approaching from the west. Low level cloud deck has mixed out over much of the region which will allow for rapid heating this morning and may need to bump high temperatures for today into the lower 80’s. Another weak short wave will approach the area this afternoon and with increasing warm air advection expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms develop. Activity should remain more scattered compared to Sunday as the surface warm front is becoming diffuse and difficult to locate over the area which will help reduce a sustained lifting source.

Strong cold front will surge down the plains tonight and across TX early Tuesday. Frontal timing has been changing with model runs, but expect a morning passage at most locations. High temperatures will be before the frontal passage with many areas reaching the 70’s then falling rapidly into the 50’s with the onset of strong cold air advection. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, but the fast forward motion of the boundary should mitigate any significant rainfall totals and instability is on the low side so not expecting any severe weather.

Cold polar air mass pours into the region Tuesday night near the surface with a warm and moist air mass gliding up and over the surface cold dome due to continued SW/WSW flow aloft. This will result in a period of cold light rain chances Tuesday night-early Thursday. Forecast soundings continue to show a significant layer of dry air in the surface to about 800mb level which will cut down on rainfall production. It appears a stronger disturbance will eject across the region on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. During this period some of the soundings show a brief moistening of the dry near surface layer which could allow a better potential for light rain to reach the ground. Combination of cold air advection and evaporative cooling will likely limit temperatures to the 40’s for highs on Wednesday. Forecast soundings for Wednesday night show the above freezing layer nearly up to 600mb so think sleet is a remote possibility, but cannot rule out some locally enhanced evaporative cooling in any of the stronger cells that might support some sleet. Think best chances will be across the Hill Country into our NW/W counties where the temp profile is a little cooler.

Additional surges of cold and drier air arrive on Thursday and again on Saturday preventing any significant warm up. Clouds should begin to clear on Thursday as the dry surface layer deepens and helps to erode the moisture over the region. Additionally the flow aloft will gradually veer to NW which will help to dry out the upper levels of the atmosphere. Clear skies and light winds will result in cold morning lows Friday and Saturday, but highs will actually warm over Wednesday values into the upper 50’s to near 60 into the weekend.
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