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December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby djjordan » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:06 pm

That is good to hear about our upcoming pattern change. Looking forward to it feeling like the holiday season!!! :D :D
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby harp » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:12 pm

djjordan wrote:That is good to hear about our upcoming pattern change. Looking forward to it feeling like the holiday season!!! :D :D


Yes! Looking forward to it here in SE Louisiana as well!
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:19 am

A nice December morning across SE TX.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:44 am

The overnight Teleconnection Indices (-EPO /+PNA /-AO Regime) as well as the Long Range Ensembles suggest no significant changes regarding the Pattern Change ahead. The first shot of Canadian Air push in after a Cold Front arrives Tuesday with the Canadian front following Wednesday. The is a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday as the cold front arrives. The fly in the ointment is some over running moisture looks possible as the Canadian Front arrives Wednesday with a chilly rain chance continuing into Thursday.

The Medium and Long Range ensemble guidance continue to advertise a series of Canadian Air dropping South every few days as a piece of the Polar Vortex becomes established near Hudson Bay at the Upper Levels with its Anticyclonic spin tapping into pieces of Upper Level Disturbances dropping South on the East side of a potent Upper Level Ridge building across the NE Pacific into Alaska creating a 'bridge' which will tap into some very cold Siberian Air that appears to plunge across the Artic into Canada and at least the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. Expect each additional Cold front following next week to progressively bring colder shots of Polar/Canadian Air into the Lower 48 through at least the 15th to 17th of December. I will not take a shot at talking about precipitation beyond next week, but needless to say the Analogs of past similar patterns suggest someone across Texas and possibly Louisiana may see precipitation of the wintry type in such an Upper Air Pattern. Stay Tuned!

11302017 4indices.png

11302017 ao_sprd2.gif

12012017 00Z GEFS Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

12012017 06Z GEFS 240 gfs-ens_z500aNorm_namer_41.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby harp » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:40 am

As all of us who live along the Gulf Coast know, the timing is EVERYTHING with these arctic systems. Usually, the moisture is gone once the cold air arrives. But, every once in a while, either a ULL or gulf surface low develops that throws moisture up over the cold air giving us some winter fun. Will it happen this time? We likely won't know until 24 hours out.
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby tireman4 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am

Take this with a grain of salt, but it looks cool...
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:14 am

NWS Fort Worth‏Verified account @NWSFortWorth · 3h3 hours ago
Below-normal temperatures are on the way next week, which is depicted here by @CIPSAnalogs. In fact, much of the country will see below normal temperatures with the upcoming pattern change. #dfwwx #ctxwx

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12012017 FWD  Graphic DP9g878VoAEnrpt.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby tireman4 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:17 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017

.AVIATION...
Light northeasterly winds will continue to turn easterly, eventually
switching to an onshore flow by Saturday morning. VFR conditions
expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Light southeasterly
flow in the early morning hours will help to advect in some
moisture, impacting our more rural coastal sites and therefore
lowered visibilities at SGR and LBX to MVFR conditions. Also
dropped visibilities to 5 SM at CLL to account for this potential
chance for radiational fog, to account for clear skies, added
moisture, and light winds. Otherwise, expecting the best chance
for fog to be contained to the western more rural TAF sites mainly
between 09-15Z overnight. VFR conditions will once again emerge
Saturday morning, with clear skies and light southeasterly winds.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12z soundings at both CRP and LCH support high temperatures in the
mid/upper 70`s. The air mass is dry and a large diurnal range in
temperatures are expected. Have bumped temps up a few degrees to
come into closer agreement with the 12z soundings. Rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes planned. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017/

MARINE...
Northeasterly winds will veer easterly as high pressure moves off to
the east. Looks for these winds to continue into the weekend, before
becoming more directly onshore Sunday as a warm front lifts through
the area. The warmer, more moist airmass will bring potential for
some fog, and possibly showers. Onshore flow will become more
moderate early next week, and the offshore waters will at least
flirt with SCEC thresholds at times from late Sunday night to very
early on Tuesday. Though confidence is low on specifics at this
time, will have to keep an eye out for sea fog potential as
dewpoints over the waters increase Sunday into the early week.
Finally, still looking for a strong cold front Tuesday, with
strengthening, gusty northeast winds developing Tuesday night behind
the front, also building seas, particularly in the offshore waters.
Small craft conditions appear likely at this time, but with
specifics to be worked out, continue to monitor forecasts.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 53 76 57 74 / 0 0 10 10 40
Houston (IAH) 76 52 76 57 74 / 0 0 10 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 61 73 64 73 / 0 0 10 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...08
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby harp » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:16 pm

From JB:

Euro has it snowing all the way to the gulf coast late next week.
Interesting
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:41 pm

srainhoutx wrote:NWS Fort Worth‏Verified account @NWSFortWorth · 3h3 hours ago
Below-normal temperatures are on the way next week, which is depicted here by @CIPSAnalogs. In fact, much of the country will see below normal temperatures with the upcoming pattern change. #dfwwx #ctxwx




Impressive cold on the 850mB Euro:

Image
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