December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Heat Miser » Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:47 pm

I agree that it does create a lot of chatter, but wishing or wish-casting something as devastating as an 83 freeze comes this way borders on lunacy. A few freezes a year, fine, kills off mesqitto's and what not, so I've heard. Getting giddy about the possibility of a devastating freeze or ice storm, no. Telling everyone you love them in the midst of a legitimate snowfall, I have no problem with. Despite the fact I had to get up at 6 AM the next morning I sat/stood and watched like a child waiting on Santa until I had to at least get a few hours sleep.
And, unless building codes have significantly improved since 83, and those houses that stood then still stand have received incredibly improved insulation to combat a freeze such as 83, devastation will still be widespread.
Ice on the roadways, I see absolutely nothing positive about such a scenario in an area ill prepared and drivers inexperienced driving in such conditions. Even drivers experienced in those conditions would rather not drive on black ice. Hundreds of accidents with many being majors, injuries and unfortunately fatalities.
Power lines down leaving thousands without heat for maybe days at a time.
You want to get giddy about snow, hey I'm right there with you. You want to get excited about a devastating freeze or an ice storm, I'm not. And, I'm the biggest weather enthusiast there is.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby sau27 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:01 pm

How about the Canadian spitting out a 1070mb high with temps in the -50s in Montana and Wyoming. Highly unlikely but still incredible to see a model putting that out. Ooof.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:29 pm

Yeah, the Canadian is running really cold, and in the teens down to Hempstead. A bit of ice.

GFS runs a little warmer with sleet Christmas night and the 26th.

Even the GEFS ensemble brings the freeze line nearly to the coast.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:34 pm

sau27 wrote:How about the Canadian spitting out a 1070mb high with temps in the -50s in Montana and Wyoming. Highly unlikely but still incredible to see a model putting that out. Ooof.



Lol GFS and Ensemble a balmy -10°- 0°F.

No doubt some cold air will be piling up this week with the hounds released this weekend. Anything is in play. Cold rain, sleet, freezing rain, w/e, PPP weather. I'm sure emergency management will be preparing - we still have a lot of displaced folks. Shelters will be open. Help your neighbor if you can!
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:32 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I'll say this to be in regards to what all the guidance has been suggesting, if this cold is going to build across Western Canada we will know by Tuesday. That is when the strong disturbance currently over the Eastern Bering Sea/Western Alaska is expected to head ESE toward British Columbia and develop the strong trough the models have been predicting.

Meanwhile I have glanced at the overnight Ensembles and even the CPC Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble and those ensemble means are different that the Operational depictions of the GFS and the ECMWF. Cold air is there starting Tuesday (Western Canada) and heading S on Wednesday/Thursday into the Lower 48. There is quite a bit of moisture over Texas as well into the week after Christmas. Monday we will be 8 Days out until Christmas Day. If the guidance converges on a realistic solution by Tuesday/Wednesday, then and only then will confidence increase moderately regarding our sensible weather. Also a note of caution when looking at the Medium Range and beyond with those extreme heights (1060+ High Pressure). Those events are extremely rare. The strongest High Pressure ever recorded if I recall correctly was 1078mb over Alaska/Western Canada back in 1989, or maybe 1983.


A 1060 millibar is statistically an outlier. There have been freezes with this type of pressure. Very rare.

The highest recorded pressure in North America is 1079.6 millibars on February 2, 1989 in Dawson City, Yukon, Canada. America's highest is 1078.6 millibars in Northway, Alaska in January 31, 1989. That gave Texas a freeze in early February 1989.

The highest pressure in the Lower 48 is 1064 millibars in Miles City, Montana on December 24, 1983. That was a really huge freeze like January 1886, February 1895, February 1899, and January 1930.

I am sure there have been higher pressure like in January 1886, February 1895, February 1899, and January 1930. I would not be surprised if it went up to 1100 millibars.

World and U.S. Anti-cyclonic (High Barometric) Pressure Records
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weath ... cords.html
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Andrew » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:41 pm

Continual support for a cold front pushing through the region this weekend according to the GFS. This would keep temperatures at or below normal for Christmas. Indications for Christmas morning show a freeze for the majority of SE Texas. Looking more and more likely that Christmas will actually feel like Christmas this year if the GFS is correct. On the other hand the CMC continues to delay the front and shows it arriving Christmas day. I suspect the GFS is on the right track. May be over-exaggerating the intensity and depth of the cold air but I do suspect it is getting closer to a solution.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby stormlover » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:51 pm

Gfs has been so inconsistent just like all the models, hard to trust any of them right now, Thursday we will get an idea
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Andrew » Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:44 pm

stormlover wrote:Gfs has been so inconsistent just like all the models, hard to trust any of them right now, Thursday we will get an idea


GFS has actually been rather consistent with that first front pushing through the 23-24th. Still think that has a good chance of occurring.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:22 am

Unsettled and messy weather to start the week. Expect increasing rain chances today with areas of fog which will continue through Tuesday. The SPC still has SE TX in a marginal risk area Tuesday evening. Wednesday is looking very nice with low 70s and mostly sunny skies. Nothing new for the upcoming weekend as unknowns persist this far out.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby snowman65 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:26 am

I'm not seeing anything below freezing for the rest of the year. My how things have changed.
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