Thanksgiving Forecast

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby sambucol » Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:01 pm

What does our weather look like in SE Texas for Thanksgiving and the week leading up to it?
User avatar
sambucol
 
Posts: 497
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:43 pm
Location: Baytown

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:50 am

sambucol wrote:What does our weather look like in SE Texas for Thanksgiving and the week leading up to it?


Being 11 days + out, we may see a cold front arrive Friday after Thanksgiving cooling us off. It could be rather chilly across a lot of the Eastern half of the United States if those long range models are correct. Still way too soon to know with any certainty.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17435
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:34 am

As we approach the long Thanksgiving Holiday week ahead, it appears after this weekends cool front that our sensible weather pattern may offer a NW flow aloft that keeps temperatures in check or slightly below seasonal early to mid next week. Clouds increase next Wednesday ahead of a strong Canadian Front with possibly much cooler air arriving Thanksgiving Day. There is still uncertainty beyond 3 to 5 days in model world, so keep that in mind when attempting to pin point our weather forecast. The GFS is rather cold with highs struggling to reach 50 on Turkey Day and into the weekend following Thanksgiving. The GFS suggests temperatures flirting with near freezing for overnight lows a week from this Friday and the following Saturday mainly N of I-10. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with the front next week, so keep that in mind. Those Medium to Long range models do suggest a rather deep early Winter like cold trough encompassing the Eastern Half of the Lower 48 later next week for those traveling to the East and NE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17435
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:11 am

The overnight guidance suggests a glancing shot of Canadian Air arrives next Wednesday with a new fly in the ointment regarding our sensible weather. Will need to introduce a chance of rain beginning next Tuesday and possibly continuing into Thanksgiving Day as a Coastal wave of low pressure develops in Deep South Texas along the frontal boundary and crawls up the Coast later next week. The ECMWF is the "wettest" model with the GFS not as wet and not as chilly as yesterday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17435
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby snowman65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:43 am

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!
User avatar
snowman65
 
Posts: 474
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 7:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:30 pm

snowman65 wrote:Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!


You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol
Attachments
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17435
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby TexasBreeze » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:29 pm

Shades of Leon Lett weekend from that model...
TexasBreeze
 
Posts: 481
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby snowman65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:29 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
snowman65 wrote:Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!


You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol


lol...Would be nice but I know better :D
User avatar
snowman65
 
Posts: 474
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 7:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby snowman65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:34 pm

User avatar
snowman65
 
Posts: 474
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 7:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx

Re: Thanksgiving Forecast

Postby CrashTestDummy » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:47 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
snowman65 wrote:Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!


You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol


Yuk!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
CrashTestDummy
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas

Next

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest