November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby BlueJay » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:58 am

I am thankful for the lovely weather!
Happy Thanksgiving to you all!
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:31 am

Realistic opportunity for rain in the future? We haven't had any in a loo oooooong time.
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby cperk » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:35 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to all my forum members and their families.
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:46 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and enjoy this beautiful weather with your family and friends. A few streaming cirrus clouds will add to the beautiful skies this afternoon.
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby harp » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:32 pm

No posts in three days? Is this mic on??
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:26 am

Lots of sun with warm afternoons and cool mornings through mid-week across SE TX. A slight chance for a few showers Wednesday and Thursday.
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby snowman65 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:16 am

That's because there isn't anything happening with the weather.. Unless there is a significant change in the weather pattern coming it stays pretty quiet in here. With La Nina being around, may not see alot of activity in here...hit and miss....

harp wrote:No posts in three days? Is this mic on??
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby tireman4 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:35 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271633
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1033 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017

.AVIATION...
This forecast cycle largely looks for VFR throughout with weak
onshore flow. Did notice isolated patches of MIFG around the area
last night, and with a similar environment tonight, that may be
expected again. Do try to block out where some/any impact might be
at the foggier spots, to set the stage if any future changes to
MVFR might be required. If this becomes necessary, would expect
LBX to be most likely to see 3-5 mile visibility.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast on track...no changes anticipated. With ridge of high
pressure at surface and upper ridge upstream aloft...expect few
clouds today with just a few diurnal cumulus possible SW zones and
near the coast...pretty much clear elsewhere. Forecast max temps
and dew points look on target. Reilly

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/

AVIATION...
The fog risk at KLBX appears to have moved southwest of the site
at 11Z. VFR is expected at all sites today and this evening. Light
winds and mostly clear skies may again lead to chances for patchy
ground fog after 06Z tonight, mainly at KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the mid Tennessee valley continues to ridge
into SE TX bringing drier air and clear skies to the region. The
high will move east today and E-SE winds will develop and bring
slightly higher moisture levels back to the area tonight and
Tuesday. Fcst soundings don`t show any saturation today so am
expecting mostly sunny skies. The dry air should allow for a rapid
warm up and temps should have no trouble warming into the
mid/upper 70`s. The NAM progs show some potential for fog late
tonight over the SW zones and will add some patchy fog to the wx
grids for early Tuesday morning. High moisture levels on Tuesday
should yield more cloud cover but warmer 850 temps and increasing
heights will yield slightly warmer temperatures.

Models diverge again on Wednesday with the NAM bringing a weak
front through early Wednesday and the GFS brings the boundary
late Wednesday afternoon. The Ecwmf also looks to be closer to the
GFS timing but perhaps a few hours earlier. Could get some
showers along the boundary as moisture deepens and PW values climb
to 1.20 inches. Strong capping should limit any threat for
thunder. The Ecmwf turns winds around to the south on Friday and
amplifies upper level ridging over the Gulf for next weekend.
Prefer the consistency of the Ecmwf over the GFS for the end of
the week and have leaned toward the Ecmwf for temps/PoPs. A slight
cool down for Fri/Sat and then a warm up for early next next
week as onshore winds strengthen and heights build in response to
the upper level ridge. 43

MARINE...
An easterly surface flow will swing around to the southeast. This
onshore flow will persist through Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night a
cold front is expected to push off of the coast. Although offshore
winds should develop, little impacts are expected at this time
following the front. A secondary surge will follow with winds
reaching at least caution levels Thursday night and Friday morning.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 52 79 54 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 53 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 72 63 75 64 73 / 0 0 0 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...18
Aviation/Marine...25
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Re: November 2017 : Cool/Dry Thanksgiving Holidays

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:17 am

Very warm November temps and lots of sun today across SE TX.
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Re: November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

Postby tireman4 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:18 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280859
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The surface high pressure ridge over the Upper Texas coastal areas
early this morning will slowly recede eastward today. An inverted
surface trough over the central Gulf of Mexico that was associated
with an upper level low pressure area should drift westward enough
for isolated showers to work their way into the coastal waters
east of Freeport today and possibly into portions of Galveston,
Chambers, and Liberty counties tonight. An upper level shortwave
trough moving across the plains will help push a cold front
through Southeast Texas late tonight and early Wednesday morning.
Although the chances of rain will be limited to the coast, there
will be enough low-level moisture to help in the formation of at
least patchy fog over most of the central and coastal areas
tonight and early Wednesday morning ahead of the front.

High pressure will then bring another period of dry and slightly
above normal temperatures through the rest of the week into the
upcoming weekend. The next chance of rain is expected to arrive by
Monday. There are some differences in the model solutions as to
how the pattern aloft will develop. The implications of these to
rain chances over Southeast Texas is really not felt until after
this current forecast period. As of early this morning, the model
blends look reasonable in starting rain chances over the forecast
area on Monday.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions expected for the next couple days. Light
onshore winds and low seas will persist thru Tue. A weak front will
push off the coast with little impacts Wed morning. A slightly
stronger reinforcing front is expected Thurs, but even then model
guidance suggests speeds below caution criteria (15-20kt). NE flow
should persist thru much of the weekend, followed by a veering to
the southeast early next week as high pressure moves away. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
There`s some patchy shallow ground fog across some parts of SE
Tx. Doubtful it`ll impact metro airports, but will burn off
shortly after sunrise regardless. VFR conditions with a bump in
se/s winds late morning and during the afternoon. Speeds diminish
after sunset in advance of a weak frontal boundary that`ll be
moving into the area Wednesday morning. Considering increased low
level moisture that should be in place, there`s a fairly good
chance we`ll see some fog in advance overnight Tuesday. SREF is
showing 60%+ probabilities of less than 1nm visibility for the
southern 2/3 of the region from roughly 3-9am (9-15z) Wed. Plan to
take much of the area into IFR with the upcoming 12z TAF set, but
wouldn`t be surprised if we see some areas of dense fog. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 55 73 49 73 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 77 59 76 53 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 66 74 62 73 / 10 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...47
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