November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: November 2017 : Seasonal Temperatures Return Mid Week

Postby BlueJay » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:42 pm

The weather has been beautiful! No complaints.
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Re: November 2017 : Seasonal Temperatures Return Mid Week

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:25 am

A muggy November morning across SE TX with patches of fog. From this morning’s HOU-GAL AFD:

A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely to-morrow) given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level moisture.

After the froggy morning we will have another Fall 80F day ahead with our next cold front set to arrive Saturday.
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Re: November 2017 : Seasonal Temperatures Return Mid Week

Postby tireman4 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:16 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151029
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely to-
morrow) given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level
moisture. A Dense Fog Advisory is possible shortly on through the
mid-morning hours when conditions will be improving. Another mild
and dry afternoon is forecast with max temperatures continuing to
run slightly above seasonal norms. A weak upper level disturbance
approaching from the NW could produce some very isolated/light RA
late this afternoon/tonight across our northern counties...but no
significant accumulations are expected given the very dry airmass
over the region. Otherwise, this pattern of cloudy/foggy mornings
and dry/warm(ing) afternoons should continue the next few days.

Our next best rain chances are still progged for Sat with the pas-
sage of a strong cold front. Model consensus a bit better with re-
gard to timing, which are pointing at the front being right along
the coast late Sat afternoon. The majority of the POPS will be at
and along the front, where lift will be best. The slightly capped
airmass (progged to be in place) could support some isolated TSRA.

Much cooler/drier weather expected in the wake of the front, with
perhaps some Fire Weather issues on Sun (see below). The extended
forecast (into the holiday week) is shaping up to be a rather dis-
parate one. Not seeing a lot (if any) consensus with this pattern
as the 00Z ECMWF is trending much much wetter/active than the 00Z
GFS. As such, will opt to lean a bit more with the ECMWF with the
long-range forecast as it has been verifying a bit better of late.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds on tap for a few days as high pressure over
Louisiana moves eastward and weak front sags southward into the
state tonight/Thursday. Strengthened onshore winds Friday on tap and
will probably reach SCEC conditions as winds and seas build...south
winds gradually veer to the southwest by afternoon. A cold front
pushes off the coast Saturday late afternoon and moderate offshore
ensues. SCEC and probably SCA conditions will follow with rough
waters thanks to the persistent southerly flow Friday and building
southerly swell banging against the offshore strengthening wind
waves. Model forecasts for Tue-Thu look like a roulette wheel for
outcomes. Strong offshore flow possible to light-moderate
easterly...very unsettled to say the least and confidence is very
low after Monday.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Lots of MIFG across the area with some areas of more widespread fog.
At times 1/4 to 1 mile and others 6+. Low stratus deck edging
eastward and has moved into 3T5-11R-CLL area. Fog will probably
become a little thicker across the area and impacts at IAH/HOU
possible. After 14-15z warming and light winds/VFR on tap until
tonight (after 04z) when another round of VLIFR/IFR possible with a
mix of CIGS and VISBY.
45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overnight and early morning with excellent recovery conditions will
prevail the next few mornings. Friday will have gusty south to
southwest winds 10-20 mph with well above normal temperatures by 7-
10 degrees. A cold front swings through Saturday which could bring
spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. Northwest to north
winds in the wake of the front will follow and should increase to 10
to 20 mph. Sunday a surge of drier air will be pushing south and if
skies remain clear and temperatures reach the projections of mid to
upper 60s then RH values will drop into the 21-27 percent range with
northerly winds of near 10 mph possibly stronger during the morning
and early afternoon hours. Fuel moistures should continue to dry out
though early this month ERC values were near normal for this time of
year. Given the weather and fuel moisture elevated fire weather
conditions may be possible.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 64 79 65 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 61 79 64 81 / 10 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 68 75 69 76 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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Re: November 2017 : Seasonal Temperatures Return Mid Week

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:26 am

Clouds and patches of fog across SE TX this morning. Expect another very warm and humid November day with some scattered showers as we await our next cool front Saturday afternoon.
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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:21 am

Above normal temperatures this morning will quickly end this afternoon and particularly tonight as a strong cold front with very gusty winds push through our Region lowering daytime and night temperature a good 20F or so...or where they should be this time of year. The front is pushing into the Permian Basin and N Texas this morning with temperatures dropping very quickly and winds gusting to near 45 MPH at some locations.

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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby Heat Miser » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:10 pm

You know the weather is uneventful when srain hasn't posted anything for three days. Another boring winter on tap interrupted by little cool snaps and a showers now and then? If it were up to me we'd have no winter. Maybe a 5 degree temperature drop November through February.
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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby mcheer23 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Hopefully December brings us Highs in the 40s and 50s........
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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:04 pm

Looks pretty seasonal through hour 384... a bit cooler than normal once December hits with highs in the 50s, but we are looking at average temps from this week onward for the most part.
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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby mckinne63 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:12 pm

I will take seasonal over warm and muggy!
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Re: November 2017 : Strong Cold Arrives Saturday Afternoon

Postby TexasBreeze » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:34 pm

^^ Seasonal is much preferred especially this week!!! :)
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