November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

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November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

Postby ticka1 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:06 pm

Time for the November weather thread and if long range show any colder temps?
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:00 pm

No. :lol:





Actually, Nov 6-10th has models picking up colder than normal air in the area. Next week should be Chamber of Commerce weather and cool for Halloween. No complaints.
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:01 am

No sign of any cooler air returning until around the 10th, +/- a day or two when we may get some Pacific "cooler" air. I suspect we will have to wait until near or after Thanksgiving for any real shot of much colder air for our Region. The pattern looks very La Ninaish to me at this time.
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby GBinGrimes » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:39 am

May be too late in the Pacific season but still have fingers crossed for a non-land threatening, jet stream buckling typhoon. We're still nowhere close to winter but all the long range forecasts and the CPC are painting a picture of warm and dry. That is a great forecast for continued Harvey recovery efforts and in that sense I will be thankful. A couple of dense, not shallow, arctic outbreaks would still be very welcome (at least from my winter weather wish list).
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:23 am

An area of showers and few thunderstorms with heavy rain is moving across the Upper TX Coast this morning resulting in a messy morning commute. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms this morning and afternoon so be weather aware today especially along and E of I-45 from Houston to Galveston.

From the House-Gal AFD:

Cells within these areas of rain will move to the northeast, while
the whole area of rain will slowly drag eastward through the rest
of the night and today. At the same time, we`ll see diurnal
warming and some very modest cooling well aloft to add some extra
instability to the mix. Shear will continue to be high, and model
hodographs indicate some decent curvature in the lowest km for
points around the bulk of the Houston metro and east of I-45. At
the same time, warming around 800 mb as winds at that level turn
southwesterly will begin to cap off the environment. The result
will be an environment that will grow increasingly favorable for
quick, low- topped tornadoes, but that warm nose will make
potential for a storm strong enough to produce a tornado more
marginal. Indeed, SPC has a marginal risk area drawn for this area
today. Ultimately, the absolute potential for a tornado is
probably pretty low, but those in the threat area will want to
stay aware of weather conditions, as any storms that may exist
will be in a more favorable environment.
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:07 am

3.24 inches of rain last night at my place!
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:15 am

Yucky hot, humid weather for next week - closer to Ft. Meyers than College Station.

I missed some fantastic weather here, but we did see the sun 3 days in a row in Seattle!

GEFS ensemble starts seeing seasonable temperatures beginning Nov 9. GFP has a brief cool down around the 11th, then warm again.
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby snowman65 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:55 am

Everywhere I read it's a La Nina season so warm and mild here the year.....oh well.
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby tireman4 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:39 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 021141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings cover much of SE TX early this morning. Where winds
are around 10 knots, there is little fog. Where winds are closer
to 5 knots, we are seeing some visibilities around 5 to 6 miles.
Anticipate ceilings and fog to improve beginning after sunrise
with ceilings possibly becoming VFR in the afternoon and S to SSW
winds increasing into a 10 to 15 knot and gusty range. Weakening
winds this evening and on into the overnight hours should allow
for mainly MVFR ceilings and fog to return to the area.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Hot, muggy weather can be expected for the next several days as
high pressure at the surface and aloft promote high humidity and
temperatures rising into the middle 80s in the coming days. Don`t
look for much change until a cold front arrives in the middle of
next week. Still, it doesn`t look like there will be a strong push
of colder air behind this front, with temperatures only looking to
fall to around seasonal averages. Though some low rain chances
will linger the next couple of days thanks to onshore flow,
the building ridge will likely cap off even these slight chances
for rain until the front moves through.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Observations around the area show that dewpoints have rebounded to
around or above 70 degrees across Southeast Texas, keeping
temperatures trapped in the lower to middle 70s. These
observations also verify the bright blue on GOES-16`s nighttime
microphysics RGB showing low clouds from roughly Houston and
farther inland. With the high dews providing such a high floor,
don`t expect these temperatures to fall much more, meaning record
high minimum temperatures are within reach. Records are explicitly
forecast for IAH and HOU, while CLL and GLS are also in the
neighborhood.

After the warm start, expect a hotter day across the area than
yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. If expected
clouds manage to break, temps would be on the higher end of that
range. These temperatures are probably safely shy of record high
values, but are decidedly warmer than the average values for early
November. On the flip side, with gently uplift on onshore winds,
there is a chance for some light showers to pop up here and there,
with probably the best chance in the eastern half of the area.
Even here, southwest flow at 850mb is likely to build a cap that
will make any showers at all more difficult to achieve, but some
isolated to scattered showers can`t be ruled out.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Look for more of the same tonight and Friday. In fact, the only
thing keeping Saturday from being a mirror day will be lighter
winds likely allowing for more fog around daybreak, followed by a
shortwave trough moving through Northeast Texas and diving across
Louisiana riding around a developing upper ridge to our
southwest. This may help give a slight boost to rain chances. But,
for what it`s worth, its location to our north, and guidance
showing the upper jet trailing this shortwave by a bit are reasons
for capping PoPs in the slight chance range again. But, showers
may be marginally more numerous than today.

By Saturday, the ridge will continue to build, and with the
subsidence, expectations are for continued warm temperatures,
even lower rain chances, and clouds should begin to scatter.
Temperatures Saturday are forecast for the mid 80s, and I`m
wondering if that might even be a bit pessimistic. Taking the
grids explicitly, record highs for Saturday will be safe. If this
forecast turns out to be too cool, record highs may need to be a
little more worried...

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Sunday and Monday look like more of the same, as the 590dm line on
the 500mb chart rises to roughly I-10 by Sunday night in both the
GFS and Euro. However, the first inklings of change will be
developing over the Panhandle, as a surface low looks to develop
in the lee of the Rockies and make its way east. This low looks to
track farther south in the guidance than yesterday, more in the
Red River Valley than in the northern half of Oklahoma, but the
functional difference is ultimately pretty small. Models aren`t
quite as tight in their agreement as they were last night, but
still strong consensus for the lows trailing cold front to move
through our area on Wednesday, with little to no potential for
rain along the front. With little cold advection and winds aloft
quickly returning to west/southwest, temperatures are unlikely to
fall significantly - highs for the back half of the week are only
progged to fall into the middle to upper 70s, or very near
seasonal averages.

MARINE...

Keeping caution flags up for the offshore waters until
mid-morning due to slightly elevated winds/seas. High
pressure over the eastern United States and lower
pressure over West Texas and the Plains will maintain
an onshore flow until the next cold front arrives around
the middle of next week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 70 85 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 81 74 81 / 30 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

25/42
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Re: November 2017 Weather - will it be cold?

Postby BlueJay » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Congratulations to our Houston Astros for winning the 2017 World Series!
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