October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Electric Lizard » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:23 pm

The wind has been out of the NW for most of the morning up here in Greenvine, Washington County, but the front has just arrived with a pick up in wind speed and a noticeable drop in dew point.
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:25 pm

Today is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Jerry which made landfall on Galveston Island Oct 15th, 1989. No other hurricane has ever made landfall this late in the year along the Upper TX Coast.

The cold front is gradually moving through the N portions SE TX and will move off the coast later this evening and overnight.
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:35 pm

Any chance of rain down here? It's been weeks since we've seen anything. I really do hate the season of fummer.
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:08 pm

No precip on the radar and the cold front is moving across Houston metro currently. No rain in the forecast through next Saturday but things could become more interesting next Sunday. Its a long way out but the Houston-Galveston NWS area forecast disco mentions it this afternoon:

The forecast becomes much more complex beginning Sunday with a large
amount of divergence in the model solutions between the GFS and Euro.
GFS shows a surface low pressure moving into the area from the Gulf,
while the Euro shows a cutoff low aloft sitting over the area for
several days starting next Sunday. Needless to say, widespread rain
chances were added, and this is a time period we will be monitoring
closely in the coming days.
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby BlueJay » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:58 pm

I am enjoying the lull of the weather for now.
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:24 am

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
IN GALVESTON COUNTY THIS MORNING...

.STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY AS WELL AS GALVESTON ISLAND THIS
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID-MORNING.

TXZ238-161500-
/O.CON.KHGX.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-171016T1500Z/
Galveston-
Including the cities of Friendswood, Galveston, League City,
and Texas City
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* EVENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID-MORNING.

* IMPACT...STRONG AND GUSTY CROSSWINDS ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT FOR LIGHT-WEIGHT AND/OR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY
ALSO BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads.
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Re: October 2017 - Cold Front Arrives! Jacket WX Tuesday Mor

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:05 am

Currently I have 58F at 7:00 AM in NW Harris County and still a bit breezy. Winds should decrease tonight allowing for the coldest morning so far of the Fall Season as temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset with ideal radiational cooling overnight with tomorrow's morning lows in the Upper 40's to mid 50's inland. Time for those jackets for the kids at the bus stop!
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Re: October 2017 - Cold Front Arrives! Jacket WX Tuesday Mor

Postby Montgomery » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:37 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Currently I have 58F at 7:00 AM in NW Harris County and still a bit breezy. Winds should decrease tonight allowing for the coldest morning so far of the Fall Season as temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset with ideal radiational cooling overnight with tomorrow's morning lows in the Upper 40's to mid 50's inland. Time for those jackets for the kids at the bus stop!


Will be great for some Junior High Football tonight!!
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Re: October 2017 - Warm WX Returns/Sunday Cold Front

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:57 pm

Katdaddy wrote:Today is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Jerry which made landfall on Galveston Island Oct 15th, 1989. No other hurricane has ever made landfall this late in the year along the Upper TX Coast.

The cold front is gradually moving through the N portions SE TX and will move off the coast later this evening and overnight.


Hurricane Jerry is the latest in satellite era. There are records of hurricanes hitting Upper Texas Coast in November. The most recent was in 1839.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf
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Re: October 2017 - Cold Front Arrives! Jacket WX Tuesday Mor

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:29 am

A cool clear morning across SE TX with temps in the 50s across most locations. Thunderstorms chances increase Friday through Sunday across SE TX ahead of the next trough and frontal system.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-181000-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Low relative humidities and dry conditions may result in elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region on
Saturday with the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
continuing into Sunday as a cold front moves into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.
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