October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2017 - Pleasant WX With 2 Additional Fronts

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:11 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Adios Summer, you evil, disgusting monster!


TG. Dew points of ≥70° F are out of the forecast until Spring 2018. :D [knock on wood]
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Re: October 2017 - Pleasant WX With 2 Additional Fronts

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:20 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Nice Monday morning in NW Harris County where temperature has dropped to 51F as of 7:00 AM. A secondary surge of colder and drier air arrives overnight into early tomorrow which should allow for even cooler temperatures, particularly daytime highs which may struggle to get out of the 60's tomorrow and Wednesday.

Yet another front arrives late Friday/early Saturday extending our string of Chamber of Commerce Weather into next weekend.



Naturally, I'm heading out of town tomorrow. Hope it doesn't rain too much in Seattle, but they have a break in the cloudy action Friday and Saturday.

We saw an inch of rain with the front. Sprinklers are OFF finally.

Friday's front is pretty dry. Don't see significant unsettled weather in the long-range until about Nov 6.
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Re: October 2017 - Pleasant WX With 2 Additional Fronts

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:24 am

The Fall weather continue as dry cold front moves across SE TX today with lows in the 40s and 50s for Wednesday morning. Another cold front will move across SE TX Friday ushering in a dry cool weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Inland areas of SE TX will likely see lows in the upper 30s this weekend.
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:50 am

The overnight guidance have come into good agreement regarding the timing and strength of our first real shot of some modified Arctic air of the Season. Our Hemispheric Indices are conducive for delivering such a strong front lending to a perfect World Series Weekend here in Houston. Go Astro's!
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:53 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
The main aviation concern will be the winds today as a cold front
has pushed through the area this morning. Winds have not mixed
down from the surface but KHGX VAD wind profiles show 40-50kt
winds 1000-2000ft AGL. Winds will take a couple of hours to mix to
the surface so will have low level wind shear in TAFs until
mixing occurs around 14Z. After that wind gusts around 25kts will
be common an perhaps near 30kts for KGLS. Winds will decouple
tonight as high pressure begins to move over the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The Autumn weather pattern will continue for the next several days
across Southeast Texas. Main issues include a cold front moving
across the area today and another cold front on Friday. Both
fronts will bring unseasonably cool weather conditions across all
of the forecast area.

Items of concern regarding today`s cold front include breezy and
dry conditions following the frontal passage. These will elevate
fire weather conditions across the area (see the fire weather
section below for more details). Temperatures following the front
will fall into the 40s and 50s tonight and early Tuesday morning.

After another cool, dry, but not as breezy day on Wednesday,
onshore winds will begin to return Gulf moisture on Thursday. The
second cold front will arrive Friday. There has been some
differences in model precipitation output. Current thinking is
that isentropic lift ahead of the front should aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers with best chances
along the front and over the southeastern half of the forecast
area. The main impact from the front will be after the frontal
passage over the weekend. Early morning low temperatures will
likely fall into the mid and upper 30s over the far inland areas
Saturday and Sunday morning with the coldest morning likely Sunday
morning. As of now, lowest temperatures could be near 34 or 35
degrees over locations north of a line from Burleson to Huntsville
to Cleveland. Could see some upper 30s as far south as Liberty
County, northern Harris County, and locations southwest of metro
Houston along the inland portions of the coastal counties.

As the high pressure area moves northeast of the forecast area, a
warming trend is expected starting on Monday. This should be aided
by southwesterly winds at the surface Sunday night and onshore
winds by late Monday.

40

MARINE...
Winds should increase towards sunrise this morning as a cold front
pushes through the area. Winds are expected to reach advisory levels
over the Gulf this morning. The advisory begins a few hours before
the threshold is forecast to be met to cover the period of SCEC-
level wind. The advisory carries through Wednesday morning - the 0-
20 nm zones may see a bit of a lull in the afternoon, but with the
expectation that winds will exceed the advisory threshold again
tonight. The advisory may need to be extended through Wednesday
morning.

Look for winds to diminish Wednesday as another high pressure center
moves across the region. As that high moves off to the east, onshore
flow should return on Thursday. The next front is expected to arrive
Friday, and looks strong enough to bring another period of strong,
gusty winds. This front may be stronger than the previous front with
the potential for wind gusts to gale force. Small craft advisories
may be needed Friday through Saturday.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
A front will continue to push through the area this morning and
drier air behind it will re-enforce the already drier cooler airmass
in place. RH levels should drop to around 20 to 25 percent this
afternoon. The area is fortunate to have generally wetter than
normal fuels due to recent rain. Outside of the 10 hour fuels, which
are more receptive to changes in RH, rain from Sunday morning will
help mitigate conditions. Due to the higher fuel moisture, we will
decide against going with a red flag warning. However, those with
more grassy fuels should be aware of the dry air and winds expected,
and understand that fire may spread more rapidly than they might
expect given the recent rain. Should RH drop lower than forecast or
winds become stronger, we will need to issue a red flag warning
today.

Low humidity will persist Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be
lower on Wednesday as high pressure moves over across SE Texas.
Winds increase Thursday ahead of the front and enough moisture will
return for some rain chances ahead of the next front on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 43 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 46 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 56 73 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:10 am

Coldest morning of the Fall Season so far this morning in NW Harris County where temperatures have dropped to the mid 40's. Some slight moderation is expected for overnight temperatures until Friday when a shot of modified Arctic/Canadian Air arrives ushering in the coldest morning we have seen since last February. Current temperature guidance has areas along and N of HWY 105 flirting with near freezing temperatures early Sunday morning. A light frost may be possible just N and W of the Beltway as well, so it may be time to protect those plants sensitive to frost or possible freeze.
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:14 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
High pressure over west Texas will allow for NW winds today and
VFR conditions. Next chance for MVFR ceilings will come Friday as
moisture returns ahead of the next cold front.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold airmass was overhead of Southeast Texas early this morning.
Morning low temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s in
some locations well inland of the coast and away from the major
metropolitan areas. Another dry and cool day is then in store for
the forecast areas as high pressure drifts overhead.

Gulf moisture return will begin slowly tonight that should help to
moderate the low temperatures across the area. An upper level
shortwave trough aloft will accompany the passage of a cold front
on Friday. Scattered showers are expected to develop across the
forecast area and linger after the passage of the front. The rain
should end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Breezy conditions are then expected to develop behind the
front and could reach wind advisory levels for a brief period
during the late afternoon.

The main issue over the weekend will be temperatures. Early
morning low temperatures on Saturday are expected to fall into
the mid 30s over the north and west and mid 40s at the coast. The
coldest morning is still looking to be early Sunday morning when
low temperatures are expected to be in the 30s over all but the
immediate coastal areas. Although guidance is not in agreement,
there are indications that freezing temperatures could occur over
locations along and north of a line from Madisonville to Groveton.
As the surface high moves east of the state, a warming trend will
occuring beginning Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front is
expected to move toward the forecast area during the middle of
next week.

40

MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions continue this morning across the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds are expected to decrease later this morning
through the rest of the day. High pressure situated over West Texas
this morning will move towards the Lower Texas Coast this evening.
This high pressure then moves into the northern Gulf on Thursday.
Southwest winds develop along the coast Thursday becoming more
southerly on Friday ahead of the next cold front.

The next cold front should push off the coast Friday afternoon with
forecast models in pretty good agreement with timing. There may be
some developing thunderstorms along the front that could affect the
coast. Strong northerly winds are expected again Friday night into
Saturday which will require another round of advisories for strong
winds and rough seas. High pressure builds over the region Sunday
allowing for light winds and low seas.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
Low humidity will be possible this afternoon and again Thursday
afternoon. Today winds will be from the NW but lower than yesterday.
Relative humidity may still drop to near 20 percent with a few areas
going below 20 percent today. Tomorrow winds increase from the SW
which will help bring some Gulf moisture back but humidity levels
may drop to 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon. Friday a cold front
will push through the area shifting winds to the north behind it and
bring in more dry air. Humidity level could be quite low again on
Saturday with decreasing northerly winds.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 49 82 54 68 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 77 51 82 62 70 / 0 0 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 74 64 82 71 77 / 0 0 0 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby CrashTestDummy » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:21 am

41 deg-F this morning in northern Brazoria Co. I'm hoping we didn't shock our orchids!!
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby kayci » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:32 am

;) Is it summer yet??
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:41 pm

kayci wrote:;) Is it summer yet??



Begone heathen! It's cold weather lovers time.
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