October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Tracking Nate

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:25 pm

Wow = 92°F in October with NNW winds. That scenario can only occur with a hurricane to the east and under influence of upper level descending air.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:30 am

From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

The much anticipated cold front is still on track to push thru the area late tonight and Tuesday morning. Scattered precip is possible along the front...though some guidance is more bullish than others. Marginal frontal convergence and lingering cap may be a limiting factor for anything of significance coverage-wise across much of the area. Chances and overall coverage appears higher near the coast Tuesday morning as the boundary approaches. PW`s pooling to around 2" there along with less capping should allow a thin line of shra/tstms to fill in along the boundary as it pushes offshore.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:50 am

Our cold front is making progress this morning and should arrive in College Station around midnight and off the Coast shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. I see Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Southern Rockies and both Denver and Raton Pass into Northern New Mexico are reporting light snow at this hour. It must be early October... ;)

We may have to wait another 4 to 5 weeks for a 'real shot' of cold air, but I would not be surprised to see the potential for much colder air as we near the Winter Season of December and who knows...it possibly could bring chances of wintry mischief this coming Winter Season. If the truth be told, I really do not mind our boring weather pattern after all we have experienced this Summer and early Fall. Now come late November/December with the Holidays ahead, we all will be looking for a weather pattern that will be full of Holiday Cheer!
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby Cromagnum » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:38 am

Winter mischief? Yeah right. We had ONE day of freezing temps last year and the previous two Christmases were in the 80s. Winter doesn't exist down here anymore.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby snowman65 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:52 am

srainhoutx wrote:Our cold front is making progress this morning and should arrive in College Station around midnight and off the Coast shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. I see Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Southern Rockies and both Denver and Raton Pass into Northern New Mexico are reporting light snow at this hour. It must be early October... ;)

We may have to wait another 4 to 5 weeks for a 'real shot' of cold air, but I would not be surprised to see the potential for much colder air as we near the Winter Season of December and who knows...it possibly could bring chances of wintry mischief this coming Winter Season. If the truth be told, I really do not mind our boring weather pattern after all we have experienced this Summer and early Fall. Now come late November/December with the Holidays ahead, we all will be looking for a weather pattern that will be full of Holiday Cheer!


4 or 5 weeks? Looks like I was right.....there will be no fall this year...lol Oh well.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby JDsGN » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:01 am

snowman65 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Our cold front is making progress this morning and should arrive in College Station around midnight and off the Coast shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. I see Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Southern Rockies and both Denver and Raton Pass into Northern New Mexico are reporting light snow at this hour. It must be early October... ;)

We may have to wait another 4 to 5 weeks for a 'real shot' of cold air, but I would not be surprised to see the potential for much colder air as we near the Winter Season of December and who knows...it possibly could bring chances of wintry mischief this coming Winter Season. If the truth be told, I really do not mind our boring weather pattern after all we have experienced this Summer and early Fall. Now come late November/December with the Holidays ahead, we all will be looking for a weather pattern that will be full of Holiday Cheer!


4 or 5 weeks? Looks like I was right.....there will be no fall this year...lol Oh well.


Hopefully its a bit earlier than 4 weeks so we don't have a super hot humid Halloween night again. Last year was miserable. But with how weak these fronts are and the trends over the past years I don't hold out hope for much.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:48 am

JDsGN wrote:
snowman65 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Our cold front is making progress this morning and should arrive in College Station around midnight and off the Coast shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. I see Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Southern Rockies and both Denver and Raton Pass into Northern New Mexico are reporting light snow at this hour. It must be early October... ;)

We may have to wait another 4 to 5 weeks for a 'real shot' of cold air, but I would not be surprised to see the potential for much colder air as we near the Winter Season of December and who knows...it possibly could bring chances of wintry mischief this coming Winter Season. If the truth be told, I really do not mind our boring weather pattern after all we have experienced this Summer and early Fall. Now come late November/December with the Holidays ahead, we all will be looking for a weather pattern that will be full of Holiday Cheer!


4 or 5 weeks? Looks like I was right.....there will be no fall this year...lol Oh well.


Hopefully its a bit earlier than 4 weeks so we don't have a super hot humid Halloween night again. Last year was miserable. But with how weak these fronts are and the trends over the past years I don't hold out hope for much.


As of now the models have a moderating front moving through a week apart for the next 3 weeks...at least there will be a break for a few days a week. I'll go out on a limb and suggest we'll have highs in the upper 70s for Halloween, better than the last few years.


Not exactly like the frost we had in late Oct way back in the early 90s...but I'll take dew points below 70°F. WTH, brown patch has already started in our lawn anyway.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:14 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
As of now the models have a moderating front moving through a week apart for the next 3 weeks...at least there will be a break for a few days a week. I'll go out on a limb and suggest we'll have highs in the upper 70s for Halloween, better than the last few years.


Not exactly like the frost we had in late Oct way back in the early 90s...but I'll take dew points below 70°F. WTH, brown patch has already started in our lawn anyway.


The early 1990s had warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Cool Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby StormOne » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:13 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Winter mischief? Yeah right. We had ONE day of freezing temps last year and the previous two Christmases were in the 80s. Winter doesn't exist down here anymore.

Winter barely existed for any of the country East of the Rockies. We got a near-record low 7.5" of snow here last season. Should be better this year.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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Re: October 2017 - Early Week Cold Front/Warm WX Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:51 am

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold front currently extends from near Huntsville to Columbus and is moving SE this morning with cooler and much drier air mass surging toward the area.

Upstream surface observations show dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s across the NW 1/3rd of SE TX this morning with upstream temperatures across central TX in the lower 60’s. Front is making steady progress toward the SE and should be off the coast over the next several hours. Moisture has pooled over SE TX and a few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the coastal counties. Should see some additional development as the front slices into the warm and moist air mass along the coast and offshore. NW winds will increase this morning into the 10-20mph range as cold air advection onsets.

Compared to the record high of 94 yesterday, it will be much cooler today and especially tonight and into Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight should range from the upper 50’s to lower 60’s across the region with high temperatures on Wednesday only near 80. Low dewpoints will make it feel cooler.

Cool air outbreak will be short lived however as Gulf moisture comes surging back on ESE winds Thursday into Friday. Another front appears to cross the area early next week helping to bring another cool down to the area.
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