October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

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October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

Postby ticka1 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:56 pm

After the events of the solar eclipse -hurricane harvey and his flood. Along with hurricane Irma and Maria - we need a little cooler relaxing weather.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:34 pm

Some very intense hurricanes have formed in October. This occurs in Western Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the warm water is deep.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby tireman4 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:23 pm

Normal Highs and Lows for October...

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_oct
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:12 pm

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 - 14 Outlook suggests typically what we experience as October begins. The CPC Experimental Week 3 and 4 look much the same.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:35 am

That map temp wise looks like an El Niño map more so than a borderline Niña
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:21 am

Still no sign of that first legitimate Fall Cold Front or Blue Norther on the horizon. There are growing indications that a Western Caribbean/Central America/Eastern Pacific Monsoonal Gyre or trough starts organizing later next week. Within this large area of lower pressures we may see tropical disturbances attempt to organize in the Western Atlantic Basin as well as the Eastern Pacific. October brings a second Peak of the Hurricane Season and it is not uncommon to see Eastern Pacific Storms head NE into Mexico and Western Caribbean Storms ride up to near the Yucatan Peninsula and generally turn E to NE...but that is typical. While it is too soon to give the all clear for Texas and Louisiana for Hurricane season 2017, we are quickly headed toward that early to mid October timeframe when we can usually say our Region is safe from any further tropical mischief.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby snowman65 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:12 pm

Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me :) Thanks!
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:24 pm

snowman65 wrote:Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me :) Thanks!



October in Tennessee or the Carolinas could yield a high risk of Chamber of Commerce weather. 8-) You might see a leaf or two changing color.

Enjoy.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:00 am

Confidence slowly increasing that a favorable Hemispheric Patten develops conducive for Tropical Development in the Eastern Pacific early next week then shifting into the Western Caribbean as we near the second week of October. Will need to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche that is festering this morning. Our 'cool front' washes out by Sunday and a return flow off the Gulf begins in earnest. The deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to 'sniff out' a potential for tropical cyclone genesis associated with a very large Central America Monsoonal Trough. This large area of lowering pressure may support several areas of vorticity capable of organizing enough to be classified at the least into a Tropical Depression.
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Re: October 2017 - will it turn cooler?

Postby snowman65 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:16 am

Looks like this weekends cool front is losing its punch. Not surprising for a September front, but it's a start.
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