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October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:27 am

Halloween Discussion....I think changes will be made to this forecast as we get closer.




000
FXUS64 KHGX 261120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Surface low pressure in the Plains will allow for gusty SW to S
winds this afternoon across the area with VFR conditions. Winds
decrease overnight as a cold front approaches the area. The front
could reach KCLL/KUTS before 12Z Friday. Front expected to reach
IAH 12-15Z Friday for the 30 hour TAF time frame. A few showers
may be possible along the front. Showers may develop ahead of the
front for KHOU/KSGR/KLBX and KGLS with VFR ceilings as moisture
from the Gulf increases. Front expected to push off the coast by
18Z Friday and support gusty northerly winds Friday afternoon for
upcoming TAF updates.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A northwesterly flow aloft will transition to southwesterly
tonight as an upper level trough develops over the state. This
approaching upper trough has already helped to kick the surface
high pressure ridge east of the state. Weak Gulf moisture return
has already begun. A cold front will move into Southeast Texas
Thursday night and Friday morning. There is some disagreement on
the timing of the frontal passage amongst the model runs. A
general consensus has the front at College Station around 7:00 AM
Friday, the Houston area down to Matagorda Bay around mid
morning, and then off of the coast of Galveston around midday.
Rainfall may be limited at first but do expect the development of
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms as the morning
progresses. Model soundings showed the best potential for
thunderstorms to be over the central and coastal areas Friday
afternoon.

Main impacts will be post-frontal winds on Friday and Friday
night, and then low temperatures over the weekend. Some of the
guidance is suggesting that a wind advisory may be needed at
least over the western and southwestern counties during Friday
afternoon, and then along the coast late Friday afternoon through
the evening. Regarding temperatures, model blends and guidance
continue to indicate freezing temperatures may be possible at
least over the far northern counties mainly early Sunday morning.
Some isolated locations may experience a morning low around
freezing as early as Saturday morning. Coldest temperatures over
the weekend will likely be north of a line from Somerville to
Groveton. Needless to say, it will be a rather chilly weekend over
the entire area.

Onshore winds return quickly on Monday. A rather active
southwesterly flow aloft should then develop beginning on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the possibility of an inverted coastal
surface trough will develop on Tuesday and Tuesday night. With the
subtropical jet overhead, better chances for thunderstorms can be
expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

40

MARINE...
Southwest to south winds will increase this afternoon and tonight
across the Upper Texas Coast. Small craft exercise caution or even
advisories may be needed tonight as winds increase to around 20 knots
in the offshore waters. Seas may reach 5-7 feet by Friday morning.

A strong cold front should push off the Upper Texas Coast Friday
afternoon with winds increasing to around 25 knots behind the front.
Winds should peak around midnight going into Saturday morning with
the chance of gale force wind gusts. Seas may reach close to 8 to 10
feet in the offshore waters with the strong winds. Winds should
decrease Saturday morning into the afternoon allowing seas to slowly
subside. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday
afternoon through at least Saturday morning.

High pressure moves over the area on Sunday allowing for light winds
and low seas. Winds increase from the south as high pressure moves
over the northern Gulf on Monday.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
While there has been some recovery in relative humidity this
morning, southwest to south winds today will support strong mixing
by the afternoon with sustained winds around 15 mph and a few wind
gusts to around 20-25 mph. Relative humidity may drop to 25 to 35
percent north and west of the US 59/I-69 corridor through SE Texas.
Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of the next front which will
push through Friday. Conditions Saturday will support borderline
hazardous fire conditions with northerly winds around 10-15 mph and
relative humidity back down close to 20 percent. Sunday will still
be dry but with lower winds.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 54 66 34 66 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 83 62 70 41 61 / 0 10 40 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 76 49 63 / 0 10 60 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:19 pm

00
FXUS64 KHGX 261659
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...The main feature of interest is late in the TAF
period with the strong cold front that should reach CLL around
10Z, IAH around 14Z, and near the coast 16Z tomorrow. Expect
scattered showers to develop ahead of the front near and south of
a SGR-IAH line in the 10Z-16Z window. Small chance of TSRA near
the coast right along the boundary. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Another beautiful day with a more moderate southwest wind backing
around the dial to onshore by the end of the day. As onshore winds
will only exist for roughly 12 hours...this will limit moisture
return ahead of tomorrow`s cold frontal passage. This should
focus Friday`s higher POPs closer to the coast/southeastern CWA
during the day as the front marches through the northern and
central forecast area. Mainly overcast becoming partly cloudy
Friday with gusty north winds...daytime temperatures reaching
their peak in the mid to late morning and falling through the
afternoon in the post-frontal. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 54 66 34 66 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 83 61 70 41 61 / 0 20 40 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 75 49 63 / 0 20 60 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Friday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...33
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:59 pm

Looks like a great Fall weekend ahead filled with watching the Astros playing at home in the World Series and feasting on cold weather comfort food. Seeing a lot of reports from our Neighbors in N Texas receiving sleet mixed with rain near the Metroplex. Enjoy the weekend and Go Astros!!
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby mckinne63 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:29 am

What a beautiful fall day! Go Astros!
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:35 am

Light Frost in NW Harris County and daily record low smashed at IAH this morning dating back to 1993. The official low is 36F with a lot of freezing or below freezing temperatures across our Northern/NE and Western Counties. It was 35F at the airport in Corpus Christi as well.
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:23 am

Light frost also down here in League City this morning. Temps approaching 70F under sunny skies will feel nice this afternoon.
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby cperk » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:38 am

Light frost here in Richmond also.Woke up to 34.5 degrees.Keep it coming. :D
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:26 am

Way to go Houston Astros!

Warm temps and unsettled weather with be the theme across SE TX for Halloween into the first weekend of November. Hopefully the showers will hold off trick or treating.
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Re: October 2017 - World Series Weekend WX/Strong Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:39 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Record lows were achieved Sunday morning over the region with an early season cold air outbreak.

BUSH fell to 35 on Sunday morning surpassing the previous record of 39 from 1910.

In fact temperature fell into the upper 20’s over Trinity, Houston, and Polk Counties.

Cold Canadian surface high pressure is moving east of the area and the return of southerly winds is in progress. Low temperatures this morning have ranged from 10-20 degrees warmed than yesterday morning. Deep Gulf moisture will begin its return to the area this afternoon and will be marked by an increase in cloud cover and humidity. A weak cold front over the southern plains will move southward and approach the region early Tuesday before stalling somewhere over SE TX Tuesday night. Do not think this front will make it much into the area, and will likely stall somewhere NW of the US 59 corridor. Strong warm air advection on Tuesday will result in scattered showers developing especially in the afternoon hours. Texas Tech WRF shows development along the coast tomorrow morning which then spreads slowly inland during the day.

Main rainfall event should hold off until Tuesday night, but there could certainly be some showers or even a thunderstorms on Tuesday evening. Moisture levels really ramp up Tuesday night with PWS rising to near 1.9 inches by Wednesday morning. Will have to keep a very close eye on the stalled frontal boundary over the region with those types of moisture levels. A couple models are screaming heavy rainfall for Wednesday morning and 1.9 inch PWS are certainly something to be aware of in the event of any training cells. For the moment will go with widespread rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches appears likely over much of the region with much higher totals where cells anchor or train for any period of time. Similar to Friday the 20th where nearly 7 inches of rain fell in a few hours along Clear Creek, some isolated significantly higher totals will be possible on Wednesday.

Frontal boundary washes out on Wednesday evening and continued onshore flow will result in a moist and warm air mass into the weekend. Will cap rain chances through the Wed-Sat period at 30%, but a few periods could see higher rain chances given disturbances in the flow aloft.

Halloween Forecast:
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening…increasing through the evening. Will start with 40% chances near sunset and increase to near 60% by 1000pm. Temperatures will remain warm in the 70’s through the evening with high humidity.


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Re: October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

Postby tireman4 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:56 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 301707
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...Scattered CU expected across southeast areas this
afternoon as 10-15 KT southerly winds bring moisture back to the
area. Expect ceilings overnight, generally just above MVFR. Also,
expect scattered showers to develop in the vicinity of a stalling
front across the area Tuesday morning. Wind direction will be a
little tricky on Tuesday because of the slow moving front.
Directions look to vary from NE to SE across the area. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/

UPDATE...
The last clear and cool morning for several upcoming days as
higher moisture returns today. Moisture creeping back upon onshore
winds as higher southern Gulf moisture advects its way into the
coastal bend...a trend that will continue through the day.
Increasing cloud cover and rain chances will move in from the west
southwest tomorrow with the western 2/3rds of the forecast area
facing high chances of showers and a possible thunderstorm during
the Halloween evening hours. A cold front now working its way
south out of the Texas Panhandle will slowly approach the region
through tonight and hang up somewhere across eastern Texas. With
moisture forecast to increase from current 0.5 inch column (pw)
values to well over an inch a day from now...precipitation chances
(mainly rain/showers) will become more widespread from west-to-east
from mid-Tuesday onward. Early Tuesday afternoon prog profiles show
mainly inland rain or showery weather with lapse rates falling back
enough latter in the day to mention isolated thunderstorms. Higher
rez modeling depicting precipitation beginning across the local
waters and coastal counties from as early as sunrise tomorrow
morning. While the better lower level focus will reside further
north...higher instability remains south. Thus...there is a
moderate chance of morning thunder to commence those communities`
last day of October/Halloween. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 55 69 58 78 / 0 20 40 80 60
Houston (IAH) 78 60 74 62 78 / 0 20 30 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 76 71 79 / 0 20 40 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
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