October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby unome » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:44 pm

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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby sambucol » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:51 pm

cperk wrote:srainhoutx i'm really looking forward to your take on 90L.

Same here.
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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby TexasBreeze » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:58 pm

Looks more of a central/ne Gulf threat due to an approaching front/ trough coming down with sw flow pushing it away from TX. Still needs watching though of course!
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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:06 pm

GFS, Euro, Canadian bring some TC close to the Louisiana coast Sunday emanating from the gyre.

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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby cperk » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:11 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:Looks more of a central/ne Gulf threat due to an approaching front/ trough coming down with sw flow pushing it away from TX. Still needs watching though of course!



Agree, but the timing of that front will be critical.
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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby sambucol » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:31 pm

cperk wrote:
TexasBreeze wrote:Looks more of a central/ne Gulf threat due to an approaching front/ trough coming down with sw flow pushing it away from TX. Still needs watching though of course!



Agree, but the timing of that front will be critical.

That's what I thought.
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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby cperk » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:52 pm

Hope to have some consensus maybe by Thursday or Friday.
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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:59 pm

Just had my first chance to look at the 12Z Deterministic and Ensemble guidance. Let's hope the weaker and sheared ECMWF solutions are correct both with the trough/frontal timing and movement more NE. Climatology suggests that would be the most likely solution, but we should always monitor developing Tropical Disturbances in what I call the "Carla Cradle". Thankfully this is early October versus late August/early September. I also see we broke the previous annual rainfall total with 74.18 inches of rainfall since January 1st. And to think it's only early October. Yikes!!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: October 2017 - Rain Chances This Week

Postby unome » Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:22 pm

up to 70% in 5-day
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over central Cuba and extending
northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern
peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Reports from land stations along the southeastern
Florida coast, in the northwestern Bahamas, and from nearby ships,
indicate that wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been occurring in
some of the heavier showers. Although significant development of
this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief
squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida
peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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