September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:44 am

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1m1 minute ago
Similar to Monday this week, today there will be another chance of rain with locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. #houwx #bcswx #txwx


09212017 HGX DKP59d8UIAIep8r.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby tireman4 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:57 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar imagery showing that showers are beginning to develop along
the coast again but perhaps not quite as much as yesterday. GOES
16 10.3-3.9 micron difference channel showing clearly where low
stratus begins and ends. This is mainly north of KELA to KCXO to
K6R3 where obs also show IFR ceilings. Ceilings are transient at
times so likely see a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO TAF
sites. Houston terminals south to the coast remain VFR with patchy
fog surrounding them. Think these areas will largely remain VFR
except for maybe later in the morning as shower activity begins.
TAFs keep mention of VCTS but begin TS around 16-17Z per latest
HRRR and WRF model runs. Convection should end 22Z to 01Z this
evening. SREF low ceiling probabilities are highest west of the
area overnight into Friday morning but low visibility
probabilities still higher from KCLL to KUTS. Fog may be an issue
but could hinge on how much rain falls across the area and
clearing overnight.

Overpeck
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:15 pm

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC201-211800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0231.170921T1704Z-170921T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 1159 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to showers and thunderstorms moving northward
across the same areas. This will cause urban and small stream
flooding in the advisory area. Close to two inches of rain have
already fallen, and rainfall rates have been as high as 0.36
inches in five minutes.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, northwestern Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park,
northwestern Seabrook, Highlands, Barrett, Channelview, eastern
Clear Lake, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Shoreacres, Morgan`s
Point, The Johnson Space Center, San Jacinto State Park and
northeastern Houston Ship Channel.

Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over the area. This
additional rain could lead to flooding, and a flash flood warning
might be needed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby tireman4 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:31 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the
afternoon before eventually dissipating after sunset. Vis under
2SM are possible in the heavier storms along with gusts to
20-25kt. Some fog and low cigs will be possible again tonight,
primarily north of KIAH. Some patchy dense fog will be possible,
particularly in areas that receive rain today. Some showers and
storms will be possible again tomorrow afternoon, but coverage
should be much more isolated than today.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Just did some very minor changes to the grids on the morning update.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing across the area
this morning, and expect this trend to continue for the remaining
morning and afternoon hours. So far, everything is moving along at
a pretty good clip. We`ll be watching for any training that sets up
which could lead to some possible localized flooding issues. 42

CLIMATE...
Yesterday`s rains at IAH brought their yearly total up to 71.78 inches.
Only 1.09 inches of rain is needed through the end of the year to make
2017 the wettest year on record for the City of Houston (first place
is currently 72.86 inches set in 1900). 42
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby unome » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:00 pm

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:05 pm

One inch per 15 minutes rainfall rates occurring in NW Harris County. Streets are flooding.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby unome » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:22 pm

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC201-212015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0234.170921T1814Z-170921T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
114 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to one inch of rain has already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tomball, Jersey Village, Willowbrook and Cypress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9552 2986 9560 3003 9582 3012 9558

$$
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:38 pm

Flash Flood Warning
TXC039-157-212030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0111.170921T1827Z-170921T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
127 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 126 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly. 2 to 3 inches of rain has already fallen and another
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected by 215 PM.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Manvel, Danbury, Arcola, Iowa Colony, Bonney, southeastern Sienna
Plantation, Juliff and Rosharon.

LAT...LON 2944 9529 2919 9536 2927 9560 2941 9557
2954 9541
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby CrashTestDummy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:45 pm

1.6" in northern Brazoria County already today. More on it's way. :shock:
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Pearland, Texas

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:50 pm

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
144 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC039-167-201-212045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0235.170921T1844Z-170921T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Galveston TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
144 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Eastern Pearland, League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Santa Fe,
Webster, northeastern Manvel, Greater Hobby Area, southwestern
South Belt / Ellington, southwestern Clear Lake, Danbury, Brookside
Village, Hillcrest, Liverpool, and Chocolate Bayou.

LAT...LON 2921 9524 2919 9536 2944 9529 2948 9534
2963 9531 2953 9509
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