September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:41 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong
storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday
and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:28 am

For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets... ;)
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09202017 00Z ECMWF 240 ecmwf_T850a_scus_11.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby tireman4 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:58 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows a few showers off the coast near KGLS with most
observations showing fog/low clouds. There are a range of VFR to
LIFR conditions across the area with even quarter mile visibility
at KCXO. That has since improved and think most terminals will
experience changes in visibility. Ceilings are for the most part
VFR across the area but that has not always been the case.
Possible to get some MVFR/IFR ceilings for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO like
yesterday through about 14Z. Expect ceilings to improve through
18Z but there could even be an hour or two with MVFR. Afternoon
period should be VFR with widely scattered shower development
across much of the area. Possible an isolated TSRA could develop
but will wait to add that to TAFs. Confidence is still low on
TSRA especially given trends in HRRR and other hi-res models.
Winds should decouple again and likely have more low clouds/fog
tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm chances look better tomorrow but
beyond the 24/30hr TAF period.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level shortwave ridge that moved over SE Texas yesterday
was now east of the area. A shortwave trough will be moving across
the forecast area today. Not a lot of activity has resulted so far
early this morning with this system. PWs over SE Texas ahead of
the shortwave were lower than 24 hours ago and ranged from about
1.7 to 1.9 inches. Model PW forecasts do not differ much from the
satellite derived PWs throughout the day today. The high
resolution models do indicate a potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The pattern aloft is still expected to develop into an upper
trough across LA into SE Texas with an upstream high pressure
ridge over N Texas into the Hill Country. This should translate
into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the daytime hours on Thursday and Friday. The upper level high
pressure ridge should then knock down the rain chances a bit;
although, a blend of the models still shows daily isolated
coverage. Do expect rain chances to increase beginning on Monday
as the main upper trough over the Rockies begins to slowly move
eastward into the Plains. As it does so, SE Texas should begin to
see an increase in moisture and warm air advection. In turn,
shortwave troughs moving ahead of the main trough will in help to
destabilize the airmass enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
Persistent southeast winds across the Upper Texas Coast will
continue to support seas around 3 feet for the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Passing showers will be possible the next
couple of days but more so on Thursday with higher moisture over
the Gulf. Tide levels will be about a half foot to 1 foot above
normal especially along Gulf facing beaches and western portions
of Galveston Bay.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 90 73 91 / 20 0 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 77 90 75 91 / 40 10 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 86 79 87 / 20 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby tireman4 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:29 am

FXUS64 KHGX 201443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Expect most of the area to be partly cloudy today with temperatures
warming into the 90s (slightly above normal temperatures for this time
of the year). Already seeing some showers and thunderstorms near the
coast, and the area should see showers and thunderstorms to continue
to develop as the day progresses, with the greatest concentration
probably setting up generally along and to the east of I-45. Current
forecast has things covered, and only minor changes were made on the
morning update. 42
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby uhcoog05 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:53 am

srainhoutx wrote:For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets... ;)


Thank you Srain for this beacon of hope!
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:38 pm

The 12Z Deterministic GFS and ECWMF guidance are coming into somewhat better agreement suggesting a cold front arrives across our Region near the 27th (GFS) or 28th (ECMWF) ushering in lower dew point/less humidity and cooler air. That front likely will play a big role on any impacts that Hurricane Maria may pose to the Outer Banks and portions of New England mid to late next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:23 am

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today with some locally heavy rainfall possible.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread
throughout this morning and afternoon. There is a chance for
isolated strong storms to produce locally heavy rainfall that may
lead to localized minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and early this evening.
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:09 am

Growing indications that our long awaited first Fall Cold Front arrives across the Lone Star State on September 27th/28th. How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?
Attachments
09212017 03Z Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby davidiowx » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:25 am

srainhoutx wrote:How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?


AMAZING!
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Re: September 2017 - Rain Chances & Typical Late Summer WX

Postby snowman65 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:30 am

davidiowx wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?


AMAZING!


THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!!!
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