September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

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September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

Postby ticka1 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:30 pm

Starting topic for September and Labor Day weekend fast approaching.
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Re: September 2017 -will summer continue or early Fall?

Postby texoz » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:07 am

Cool front next week??? Hoping we can start talking about something else besides Harvey soon!

At least it appears no strong heat returning, which is good news for everyone in SE Texas as they try to recover.
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:00 pm

I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.
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08292017 12Z GFS 168 gfs_z850_vort_watl_29.png
08292017 12Z 168 ECMWF ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_8.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:10 pm

Absolutely loving that I don't see 90 degrees in my 10 day forecast right now
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:09 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.


I hope that is wrong and very wrong.
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:31 pm

Words hardly express this event. Epic and unreal. I can't imagine another tropical threat for SE TX but this is the time of year.
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby cisa » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:41 am

If it verifies, it is going to be so hard for the Pro Met to have to deliver that news. I could see it in David Paul's eyes tonight. But to all you guys. How do the condition look for this?
No rain, no rainbows.
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:40 am

As of this morning things appeared to be much weaker than what we saw yesterday. That said there does appear to be a surge of deeper Gulf moisture surging toward the Texas Coast. That should increase our rain chances early to mid next week.
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97ep48iwbg_fill(2).gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby cperk » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:30 am

[quote="srainhoutx"]I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall
Last edited by cperk on Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: September 2017 -Labor Day WX/Tracking The Tropics

Postby cperk » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:35 am

cperk wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.



As the voice of this forum I support your decision to inform us about this and absolutely trust your judgement on these matters.
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